UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira

PuertoRican said:
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I don't even know why they have Dumas on the roster, he fucking sucks and is roster bloat.


Also what do people think of Kai's chances of scoring a ko/tko here? Pantoja has an atg chin but he's 35 and has a super taxing style, he did look great vs Asakura but I feel this is his toughest fight since the last Moreno one.
 
Oliveira is the only bet. +350 is straight disrespectful. Topuria by KO has merit. It’s almost impossible seeing this fight go five rds.

Pantoja is levels ahead of kara France. His overhand right is his only chance, like against erceg.

Van has crisper boxing, and really showed his finishing potential last fight against a guy who doesn’t get KOd often. It’s just one of those bahamondes/fiziev fights to me. Royval has faced so many elite fighters and it’s really hard to think anything but Royval by decision. Royval by submission is always a potential, but he’s going to have to be creative with the initial takedown on Van. TOUGH fight to call because I’m a huge Van fan since maybe four fights ago, all easy decisions and a dominant KO his last one, but give me Royval.

Dariush has barely fought and Moicano has found it. Maybe he will be shook by the dominance of Makhachev but I really think his relentless wrestling is one of the best specialities in the UFC and he just fought the toughest opponent anyone could ever face. Moicano for sure.

Recency bias in full effect in the Talbott/Lima fight. Lima, like Van, continued his winning with his most well rounded/electric performance yet, but he better forget about striking entirely unless it’s to set up a takedown. At the same time, he doesn’t have the specialty wrestling that barcelos has, and that to me feels like the only way you’re going to beat one of the most explosive, yet highly technical fighters I’ve ever seen. Talbott +170 is a gift.

Jack Hermansonn completely neutralized Joe Pyfer (which isn’t aging that well after the mediocre Pyfer win a couple weeks ago,) but that was a masterclass in keeping distance. Robocops momentum was squashed last fight and he doesn’t have the output to dominate against a smart fighter. I don’t think highly of hermansonns upside, but this feels like a lovely +160.
 
jnes said:
Also what do people think of Kai's chances of scoring a ko/tko here? Pantoja has an atg chin but he's 35 and has a super taxing style, he did look great vs Asakura but I feel this is his toughest fight since the last Moreno one.
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If I bet on KKF, it'll be his money line at over +200, or his KO/decision line if it's a decent amount better than his ML.

I don't believe that KKF path to victory is only by KO. You already mentioned that Pantoja has a great chin, and we already know that the percentage of a KO lessens as the fight goes deep, and many fights have been going to a decision lately. What's more, they're fighting in a big cage and R1 is usually slow in main events and title fights.

I think that if Pantoja doesn't walk into a big punch early by being aggressive, then this fight is going to a decision, which is currently lined at +100 on offshore books.

Boyd sportsbook:
O4.5 rounds -110
Decision +104
Pantoja decision +210
KKF decision +550
Pantoja ITD +125
KKF ITD +500
Pantoja ML -265
KKF ML +200
 
trunksan said:
FYI

Just had a chat with my mate Bill who is a big lover of MMA and very successful in MMA betting.

His opinion:

Hermansson V Rodrigues : 1st or 2nd round KO for Rodrigues... I will listen to him and hedge (I have already bet on Hernansson).
Royval V Van: Tought fight (of course) but he prefers Van
Dariush V Moicano: He prefers Moicano because he has been more active. Here, I disagree.

The rest are along the lines of our discussion here.

He would love to see Topuria lose but doubts it.
Also, Pantoja Dec
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Hedged with Robocop win by KO or decision

Will be watching this live.

Being in Europe I'll sleep after. I want to go to a beach party the next day.
 
jnes said:
I don't even know why they have Dumas on the roster, he fucking sucks and is roster bloat.


Also what do people think of Kai's chances of scoring a ko/tko here? Pantoja has an atg chin but he's 35 and has a super taxing style, he did look great vs Asakura but I feel this is his toughest fight since the last Moreno one.
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I mean...KKF hits like a truck for the division and the prop is like +650. Pretty easy to justify a small stab at it.
 
PuertoRican said:
If I bet on KKF, it'll be his money line at over +200, or his KO/decision line if it's a decent amount better than his ML.

I don't believe that KKF path to victory is only by KO. You already mentioned that Pantoja has a great chin, and we already know that the percentage of a KO lessens as the fight goes deep, and many fights have been going to a decision lately. What's more, they're fighting in a big cage and R1 is usually slow in main events and title fights.

I think that if Pantoja doesn't walk into a big punch early by being aggressive, then this fight is going to a decision, which is currently lined at +100 on offshore books.

Boyd sportsbook:
O4.5 rounds -110
Decision +104
Pantoja decision +210
KKF decision +550
Pantoja ITD +125
KKF ITD +500
Pantoja ML -265
KKF ML +200
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I can see KKF decision being about as likely as him getting a KO. If he's able to stuff TD's and have the bigger moments standing, definitely possible. I'm limited to my book and his decision is +460 while KO is +650. So decent amount better odds on KO.
 
Putting 0.5u on Charles by Stoppage (+400)
I can't see any value in anything else on that one at this time.
There is a slight chance something opens up during the livebetting.
 
mkess101 said:
Random question I'm gonna put here because it's not worth a new thread:

Let's say you bet FGD or FDNGD on the recent Brundage/Mansur fight...how is that graded? It went to a technical decision but didn't actually go the distance. Does "ends inside distance" win?
There are other props for "fight ends in KO/TKO/DQ" or "fight ends in decision" which are more obvious and cut and dried. But for a "goes distance"...that would be a loss for a situation like that?

This is the type of random shit that pops into my mind when thinking about how utterly unlikely it is that Cortez/Araujo ends inside the distance LMAO!
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Goes down as normal DEC. People that bet Malik KO lost.
 
Guld said:
Putting 0.5u on Charles by Stoppage (+400)
I can't see any value in anything else on that one at this time.
There is a slight chance something opens up during the livebetting.
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Uh..Charles by W +350 might be a play
 
BigSteve said:
Goes down as normal DEC. People that bet Malik KO lost.
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Right in terms of decision yeah. My question was on "Fight goes distance". Because the fight was stopped prior to going the distance even though the method of victory was decision. It sounds like FGD and FDNGD bets were just refunded by some books.
 
Brady12Gronk87 said:
Uh..Charles by W +350 might be a play
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Agreed. He was only +300 on my site yesterday. My logic was that if Charles is winning then I should be able to get his ML at +150 at least, and if he got a stoppage before that I would still have his stoppage bet. (Assuming he wins at all lol)
 
This isn't legit, is it? I know Charles is deceptively big, but this seems exaggerated haha.
1750947366475.png
 
sonhow said:
Hines arguably a future goat canditate though Ive not seen any of his fights

The keyword being "arguably"
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So Tybura is obviously proven...but Diniz showed almost no ability to get up or do anything at all off his back. If this Hines dude can wrestle AT ALL...he lands a couple TD's and wins 2 rounds via top control. Is it that far fetched? Hines decision +1050...just sayin'.
 
mkess101 said:
So Tybura is obviously proven...but Diniz showed almost no ability to get up or do anything at all off his back. If this Hines dude can wrestle AT ALL...he lands a couple TD's and wins 2 rounds via top control. Is it that far fetched? Hines decision +1050...just sayin'.
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its HW. Anything could happen.
 
Hines is woeful.

Diniz is going crack him so hard that he'll think that he's on the set of Alvin and the Chipmunks
 
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