UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira

[XociDe]

So Tybura is obviously proven...but Diniz showed almost no ability to get up or do anything at all off his back. If this Hines dude can wrestle AT ALL...he lands a couple TD's and wins 2 rounds via top control. Is it that far fetched? Hines decision +1050...just sayin'.

Hines is gonna be moving in slow motion after 5 minutes. Landing a takedown and winning the first round wouldn't shock me, but for how bad Diniz is, he's durable af and has decent cardio for a HW. I think Hines gets finished late 2nd or 3rd round.

At +1050 though, I won't say it's a terrible bet. We've seen some major clownery at HW in the past, especially with low level fighters.

 

[Guld]

Guld is the type to get catfished by fat chicks online.

But they are single, horny, and in my neighborhood looking for a nice time. No strings attached!
I gotta send them my bank info and see if this is legit!

 

[mkess101]

Hines is woeful.

Diniz is going crack him so hard that he'll think that he's on the set of Alvin and the Chipmunks

I snagged Diniz ML at -205 before he got steamed so fine by me. I figure this Hines guy will probably try to wrestle so if he has ANY success it's probably by taking Diniz down and laying on him.

 

[mkess101]

Hines is gonna be moving in slow motion after 5 minutes. Landing a takedown and winning the first round wouldn't shock me, but for how bad Diniz is, he's durable af and has decent cardio for a HW. I think Hines gets finished late 2nd or 3rd round.

At +1050 though, I won't say it's a terrible bet. We've seen some major clownery at HW in the past, especially with low level fighters.

See my last post too. I already have Diniz ML -205 because I assumed (this time correctly) that the line would get way worse.

 

[Dooze]

What's that Jacobe Smith like?

I don't particularly rate Nico Price highly, but he's got some okay wins and fought a lot of well rated fighters in his career (granted he lost to most of them, but he's got a few wins against decent fighters).

Is he top 10 and main event destined? It's easily the highest odds he's been, even compared to when he fought prime Luque or Neal. Smith is a bigger favourite than Islam was Vs Moicano - or Islam Vs anyone - possibly even Jon Jones or Khabib versus anyone.

It's not really the type of odds you see for anyone in the UFC. Is he the next big thing or have the odds got a bit out of hand? I don't particularly want to bet Price but the odds seem so high my interest is getting piqued on a points handicap or something. He's 11 to win, 8 with +3.5 points.

 

[Thesnake101]

What's that Jacobe Smith like?

I don't particularly rate Nico Price highly, but he's got some okay wins and fought a lot of well rated fighters in his career (granted he lost to most of them, but he's got a few wins against decent fighters).

Is he top 10 and main event destined? It's easily the highest odds he's been, even compared to when he fought prime Luque or Neal. Smith is a bigger favourite than Islam was Vs Moicano - or Islam Vs anyone - possibly even Jon Jones or Khabib versus anyone.

It's not really the type of odds you see for anyone in the UFC. Is he the next big thing or have the odds got a bit out of hand? I don't particularly want to bet Price but the odds seem so high my interest is getting piqued on a points handicap or something. He's 11 to win, 8 with +3.5 points.

Really strong wrestler with a lot of KO power, more polished than your typical Contender Series signing and I think he's a Cormier protege if I'm not mistaken. It's a set-up fight.

 

[Dooze]

Thanks for the info, yeah did assume set up fight but those odds seemed a bit out of line on first glance.

The Cormier protégé bit reminded me of Deron Winn and made me laugh a bit. For some reason I regularly get Nico Price mixed up with Gerald Meerschaert who choked out Winn.

Maybe this is fates way of telling me to bet Price so I can lose money and restore balance after winning a decent amount last card.

 

[jnes]

What's that Jacobe Smith like?

I don't particularly rate Nico Price highly, but he's got some okay wins and fought a lot of well rated fighters in his career (granted he lost to most of them, but he's got a few wins against decent fighters).

Is he top 10 and main event destined? It's easily the highest odds he's been, even compared to when he fought prime Luque or Neal. Smith is a bigger favourite than Islam was Vs Moicano - or Islam Vs anyone - possibly even Jon Jones or Khabib versus anyone.

It's not really the type of odds you see for anyone in the UFC. Is he the next big thing or have the odds got a bit out of hand? I don't particularly want to bet Price but the odds seem so high my interest is getting piqued on a points handicap or something. He's 11 to win, 8 with +3.5 points.

Price is beyond shot and Smith appears to be an athletic freak. I expect pretty brutal finish early tbh.

 

[PuertoRican]

 

[BigSteve]

Right in terms of decision yeah. My question was on "Fight goes distance". Because the fight was stopped prior to going the distance even though the method of victory was decision. It sounds like FGD and FDNGD bets were just refunded by some books.

it counts as going to dec normaly

 

[trunksan]

Hines is woeful.

Diniz is going crack him so hard that he'll think that he's on the set of Alvin and the Chipmunks

I'm not so sure. Like others have said this is the typical Striker vs Wrestler. Hines is no joke. With the odds on Hines I put a small bet on him.

Hines by lay and pray.

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

Hines is no joke.

He's a huge joke

 

[King-Ryan]

Just taped the Diniz fight... Diniz ITD -170 will be a large play for me, small play on Diniz RD 1 +185 and Speinkle on Diniz U0.5Rd's +450

Anyone have any plays they really like in PFL or Csge warriors?

 

[King-Ryan]

I'm not so sure. Like others have said this is the typical Striker vs Wrestler. Hines is no joke. With the odds on Hines I put a small bet on him.

Hines by lay and pray.

Hiniz couldn't even get his last opponent down, he tried three times...

 

[PuertoRican]

 

[Brady12Gronk87]

Maaaaaannnnn

Math..-425 fav. How much is that dictated on them thinking he wins by KO (oliveiras chin is his one weakness.) They really think that fight goes the distance and he wins that way? He submits oliveira I’ll never bet again.

-170 topuria KO and +350 oliveira W. What a clean discrepancy

 

[Brady12Gronk87]

Oliveira is the only bet. +350 is straight disrespectful. Topuria by KO has merit. It’s almost impossible seeing this fight go five rds.

Pantoja is levels ahead of kara France. His overhand right is his only chance, like against erceg.

Van has crisper boxing, and really showed his finishing potential last fight against a guy who doesn’t get KOd often. It’s just one of those bahamondes/fiziev fights to me. Royval has faced so many elite fighters and it’s really hard to think anything but Royval by decision. Royval by submission is always a potential, but he’s going to have to be creative with the initial takedown on Van. TOUGH fight to call because I’m a huge Van fan since maybe four fights ago, all easy decisions and a dominant KO his last one, but give me Royval.

Dariush has barely fought and Moicano has found it. Maybe he will be shook by the dominance of Makhachev but I really think his relentless wrestling is one of the best specialities in the UFC and he just fought the toughest opponent anyone could ever face. Moicano for sure.

Recency bias in full effect in the Talbott/Lima fight. Lima, like Van, continued his winning with his most well rounded/electric performance yet, but he better forget about striking entirely unless it’s to set up a takedown. At the same time, he doesn’t have the specialty wrestling that barcelos has, and that to me feels like the only way you’re going to beat one of the most explosive, yet highly technical fighters I’ve ever seen. Talbott +170 is a gift.

Jack Hermansonn completely neutralized Joe Pyfer (which isn’t aging that well after the mediocre Pyfer win a couple weeks ago,) but that was a masterclass in keeping distance. Robocops momentum was squashed last fight and he doesn’t have the output to dominate against a smart fighter. I don’t think highly of hermansonns upside, but this feels like a lovely +160.

Replying to myself cause I want to make yall money!

 

[Brady12Gronk87]

Also. I’ll bet on niko price and gladly get suckered only because I beat myself up not betting barcelos against talbott who i love (and am on today.) This is unheard of. Michael chandler wouldn’t have gotten this respect his first actual ufc fight. You gotta throw something on price.

 

[Tebowned]

Michael chandler wouldn’t have gotten this respect his first actual ufc fight. You gotta throw something on price.

What does this even mean?

 

[Oblivian]

I'm not so sure. Like others have said this is the typical Striker vs Wrestler. Hines is no joke. With the odds on Hines I put a small bet on him.

Hines by lay and pray.

What makes you think Hines is a wrestler? He's really not. I'm all about looking for an angle on a dog, but you're picking an angle not there. He's not from a strong wrestling background and really hasn't been in MMA very long. This really can only happen at HW unless you are an exceptional athlete which he isn't. He's just some typical blue collar guy. I think he gets sparked, but also I expect him to deteriorate later in the fight if he doesn't get sparked.