UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira

[mkess101]

Shouldn't some aspects of record capping be applied though?

Royval's wins on Moreno, KKF, and Taira should place him as a wider favorite.

Van losing to Charles Johnson, and then gets a winning streak with lower ranked opponents now places him at pickem odds. Something seems very odd about that.

I mean...yes and no. "Variance" is probably overused in capping but I think it applies with Van vs Johnson. Van was well ahead, doing what he does and got caught. It happens. And Inner G isn’t exactly a scrub. Maybe not a top contender but pretty good.

Royval hit a nice guillotine on KKF but that was bizarre that KKF shot at all. That win is nice, but it's hard to see Van engaging in grappling like that. Moreno looked utterly disinterested in even being there vs Royval. Was super weird and iirc was what led to Brandon saying he needed to step away for a bit because his heart wasn't in it.

Taira was a good win and imo the best barometer from a career trajectory standpoint to Van. But stylistically very different. It's the eye test for me with Van. He passes with flying colors.

 

[Guld]

I mean...yes and no. "Variance" is probably overused in capping but I think it applies with Van vs Johnson. Van was well ahead, doing what he does and got caught. It happens. And Inner G isn’t exactly a scrub. Maybe not a top contender but pretty good.

Royval hit a nice guillotine on KKF but that was bizarre that KKF shot at all. That win is nice, but it's hard to see Van engaging in grappling like that. Moreno looked utterly disinterested in even being there vs Royval. Was super weird and iirc was what led to Brandon saying he needed to step away for a bit because his heart wasn't in it.

Taira was a good win and imo the best barometer from a career trajectory standpoint to Van. But stylistically very different. It's the eye test for me with Van. He passes with flying colors.

Van's style is much more judge friendly too.
His strikes hit harder and get bigger reactions than Royval's IMO.
With that being said, this is a big step up in competition so it'll definitely let us know if he's actually ready, or if he still has a lot of work to do.

 

[trunksan]

I'm going to echo a lot of this.
-I like Van, especially if you can get him at dog or evens. Royval is no joke, but Van is looking really good.
-Hermansson at +150 is fantastic. I honestly think he should be the fav.
-Dariush at those odds is a gift. The only way I see him losing it is if he's really deteriorated in his time away.
-I also like Topuria ITD, and I might also take a sprinkle on Charles by Stoppage as well. That ML for Topuria is not worth the risk, especially against Charles.
-I think Kai might be able to get it done, but that one seems like a livebet IMO.
-I'm also going to grab some of that Talbott bet at +140

Current bets...
-Van ML 3u -110
-Hermansson 2u +150
-Dariush 2u +120
-Talbott 2u +140

Since most of those are dogs I'll likely add more when/if they get even better.

No idea about Talbott, the rest I agree.

If Van drops to + I'll also go for it.

Pantoja by decision, but won't be betting on it.

 

[B.Goetz]

If Pantoja doesn't finish in the first or early second (or at least get easy take downs), he's going to gas IMO. Something to watch for in live betting. He is not an efficient striker, and he's a 35 year old flyweight. I've been looking to fade him since his split dec. win over Moreno in 2023, but never had the right opponent. Thoughts on KKF's TDD?

Value on Dariush +125. Van ML (-105) or decision.

I think Hermansson loses two rounds to Robocop, then does better in the third. Probably loses a decision. Maybe he will take over earlier? I would be wary of betting him.

I think Topuria is going to run the whole 155 division.

This is a great card, IMO.

 

[BigSteve]

Rewatched Lima's fight with Magard , Naimov, Johns and i wasn't impressed with his wrestling. Low ctrl time, easily swept.

If this fight plays out on the feet i'll give Payton the advantage. Raoni only out landed ss by ground strikes, so he's yet to be bested by any striker. And Lima also went 50/50 with Naimov on the feet.

seems like a pickem fight with Talbott being the side.

This is the best striker Talbot will fight

 

[trunksan]

FYI

Just had a chat with my mate Bill who is a big lover of MMA and very successful in MMA betting.

His opinion:

Hermansson V Rodrigues : 1st or 2nd round KO for Rodrigues... I will listen to him and hedge (I have already bet on Hernansson).
Royval V Van: Tought fight (of course) but he prefers Van
Dariush V Moicano: He prefers Moicano because he has been more active. Here, I disagree.

The rest are along the lines of our discussion here.

He would love to see Topuria lose but doubts it.
Also, Pantoja Dec

 

[Oblivian]

I mean...yes and no. "Variance" is probably overused in capping but I think it applies with Van vs Johnson. Van was well ahead, doing what he does and got caught. It happens. And Inner G isn’t exactly a scrub. Maybe not a top contender but pretty good.

Royval hit a nice guillotine on KKF but that was bizarre that KKF shot at all. That win is nice, but it's hard to see Van engaging in grappling like that. Moreno looked utterly disinterested in even being there vs Royval. Was super weird and iirc was what led to Brandon saying he needed to step away for a bit because his heart wasn't in it.

Taira was a good win and imo the best barometer from a career trajectory standpoint to Van. But stylistically very different. It's the eye test for me with Van. He passes with flying colors.

I have to disagree with you quite a bit on the bold here. Royval was handling the standup well and putting a ton of pressure on KKF. That pressure makes people do stupid shit like shoot. Oliveira has made a killing off fighting like that as well.

I think that's why this fight will be great. Van likes to pressure too. IMO, I look at this fight somewhat similar to Oliveira/Top. I think body work will be a huge factor. I think Oliveira's going to get ate up to the body and probably dropped by it. I think Van would be wise to try the same thing, but I don't know if his power will have the same affect. I'm leaning towards Royval. I think he an hurt Van standing and obviously sub on the ground too.

 

[mkess101]

I have to disagree with you quite a bit on the bold here. Royval was handling the standup well and putting a ton of pressure on KKF. That pressure makes people do stupid shit like shoot. Oliveira has made a killing off fighting like that as well.

I think that's why this fight will be great. Van likes to pressure too. IMO, I look at this fight somewhat similar to Oliveira/Top. I think body work will be a huge factor. I think Oliveira's going to get ate up to the body and probably dropped by it. I think Van would be wise to try the same thing, but I don't know if his power will have the same affect. I'm leaning towards Royval. I think he an hurt Van standing and obviously sub on the ground too.

Fair point about KKF shooting. You're right, guys do out-of-character stuff when pressured and panic sets in a little. But I think the stylistic differences between Van and KKF make it less likely we'd see a scenario like that play out. Like you said, Van is a pressure fighters himself. And imo his boxing is crisper and slicker than Royval's so I think Van can be the one to land the better early shots and put Royval on the back foot. Could I be wrong? Absolutely. Big step up in competition for Van but Royval has been fighting talented guys like Van for awhile. I just like how Van puts punches together as he advances. He seems to always be making his opponent adjust to him instead of vice versa. I completely agree that if it hits the mat that's a big advantage for Royval. I just don't expect it to get there.

I have a bet on Oliveira at +325 but may add something on Ilia rd 1-2. I fully expect Charles to try to back Ilia up using teeps and long, straight punches. But Charles will lunge in or shoot or do something to create a chaotic situation before long. And it's pretty likely he gets smoked when he does. But if not and he can get ahold of Ilia...it gets real interesting. I do also think Charles has the ability to hurt Ilia standing. Charles has massively underrated power imo. He's hurt plenty of guys standing since moving to 155.

Edit: Man I just checked and the casino I go to has Oliveira KO at +1300. That's insane. I plan to go on Saturday and boy do I hope that line doesn't move.

 

[Oblivian]

Fair point about KKF shooting. You're right, guys do out-of-character stuff when pressured and panic sets in a little. But I think the stylistic differences between Van and KKF make it less likely we'd see a scenario like that play out. Like you said, Van is a pressure fighters himself. And imo his boxing is crisper and slicker than Royval's so I think Van can be the one to land the better early shots and put Royval on the back foot. Could I be wrong? Absolutely. Big step up in competition for Van but Royval has been fighting talented guys like Van for awhile. I just like how Van puts punches together as he advances. He seems to always be making his opponent adjust to him instead of vice versa. I completely agree that if it hits the mat that's a big advantage for Royval. I just don't expect it to get there.

I have a bet on Oliveira at +325 but may add something on Ilia rd 1-2. I fully expect Charles to try to back Ilia up using teeps and long, straight punches. But Charles will lunge in or shoot or do something to create a chaotic situation before long. And it's pretty likely he gets smoked when he does. But if not and he can get ahold of Ilia...it gets real interesting. I do also think Charles has the ability to hurt Ilia standing. Charles has massively underrated power imo. He's hurt plenty of guys standing since moving to 155.

Edit: Man I just checked and the casino I go to has Oliveira KO at +1300. That's insane. I plan to go on Saturday and boy do I hope that line doesn't move.

This card is by far the best in a while IMO. I can play out most of the fights going a couple different ways, and they are all pretty exciting conclusions!

 

[mkess101]

This card is by far the best in a while IMO. I can play out most of the fights going a couple different ways, and they are all pretty exciting conclusions!

100% agree. Cannot wait.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I mean...yes and no. "Variance" is probably overused in capping but I think it applies with Van vs Johnson. Van was well ahead, doing what he does and got caught. It happens. And Inner G isn’t exactly a scrub. Maybe not a top contender but pretty good.

Royval hit a nice guillotine on KKF but that was bizarre that KKF shot at all. That win is nice, but it's hard to see Van engaging in grappling like that. Moreno looked utterly disinterested in even being there vs Royval. Was super weird and iirc was what led to Brandon saying he needed to step away for a bit because his heart wasn't in it.

Taira was a good win and imo the best barometer from a career trajectory standpoint to Van. But stylistically very different. It's the eye test for me with Van. He passes with flying colors.

i cant argue that Van, does look like a better technical fighter. i just think experience and being battle tested is going to aid Royval in making wiser decisions.

we shall see

 

[Stat_Collector]

This is the best striker Talbot will fight

sure, but not a power puncher also 4 inches shorter, we'll see.

 

[mkess101]

Random question I'm gonna put here because it's not worth a new thread:

Let's say you bet FGD or FDNGD on the recent Brundage/Mansur fight...how is that graded? It went to a technical decision but didn't actually go the distance. Does "ends inside distance" win?
There are other props for "fight ends in KO/TKO/DQ" or "fight ends in decision" which are more obvious and cut and dried. But for a "goes distance"...that would be a loss for a situation like that?

This is the type of random shit that pops into my mind when thinking about how utterly unlikely it is that Cortez/Araujo ends inside the distance LMAO!

 

[svmr_db]

Random question I'm gonna put here because it's not worth a new thread:

Let's say you bet FGD or FDNGD on the recent Brundage/Mansur fight...how is that graded? It went to a technical decision but didn't actually go the distance. Does "ends inside distance" win?
There are other props for "fight ends in KO/TKO/DQ" or "fight ends in decision" which are more obvious and cut and dried. But for a "goes distance"...that would be a loss for a situation like that?

This is the type of random shit that pops into my mind when thinking about how utterly unlikely it is that Cortez/Araujo ends inside the distance LMAO!

I believe most books would grade the fight as not going the distance since it didn't go the full 15 minutes, under 2.5 rounds etc still should've cashed.

 

[guesswhoseback]

I believe most books would grade the fight as not going the distance since it didn't go the full 15 minutes, under 2.5 rounds etc still should've cashed.

I disagree I believe most would grade it as going to a decent but I'm not sure

 

[mkess101]

^^^You guys are no fucking help at all.

 

[svmr_db]

^^^You guys are no fucking help at all.

Haha! Different books may rule on it in different ways. Best to start by checking your sportsbook's house rules to see if they clarify things under their rules for MMA betting.

 

[sonhow]

Random question I'm gonna put here because it's not worth a new thread:

Let's say you bet FGD or FDNGD on the recent Brundage/Mansur fight...how is that graded? It went to a technical decision but didn't actually go the distance. Does "ends inside distance" win?
There are other props for "fight ends in KO/TKO/DQ" or "fight ends in decision" which are more obvious and cut and dried. But for a "goes distance"...that would be a loss for a situation like that?

This is the type of random shit that pops into my mind when thinking about how utterly unlikely it is that Cortez/Araujo ends inside the distance LMAO!

I had bets on that fight heres how my bookie handled it

Abdul wins a decision - cashed
FGTD - bet voided and play money returned

 

[mkess101]

I had bets on that fight heres how my bookie handled it

Abdul wins a decision - cashed
FGTD - bet voided and play money returned

Cool, thanks!

 

[PuertoRican]