UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena

[Stat_Collector]

Leon also more prone to fighting off the back foot imo. If Belal can't get JDM to go backwards then he could be in for a hell of a time because that guy on the front foot is a nightmare.

He's also a devastating body puncher, help take the air out of the tire.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

He's also a devastating body puncher, help take the air out of the tire.

Yeah, part of me actually thinks that it might be Belal who starts to fade first as ridiculous as that sounds on the face of it. He has excellent cardio when he's fighting his fight, but what if he's not?

 

[Broe.]

Are the Belal bettors taking into account just how good of a scrambler JDM is?

Yeah his takedown defense really isnt that bad either. Against Hafez the only reason he was on the mat for a long time was that he went for a guillotine 3 times, and got taken down because of it. Pretty retarded but he is not bad at stuffing takedowns in general imo.

 

[Spath]

there is a legit argument that Jack is a better version of Leon Edwards

No, there isn’t.

 

[Stat_Collector]

No, there isn’t.

ok

 

[Thesnake101]

Yeah, part of me actually thinks that it might be Belal who starts to fade first as ridiculous as that sounds on the face of it. He has excellent cardio when he's fighting his fight, but what if he's not?

Watch his short notice debut against Jouban. He was pretty much a punching bag for the first two rounds, got dropped a bunch and still managed to come out in the third and win that round. He fights through exhaustion, one of the boons of being a volume guy I guess.

 

[Thesnake101]

Yeah his takedown defense really isnt that bad either. Against Hafez the only reason he was on the mat for a long time was that he went for a guillotine 3 times, and got taken down because of it. Pretty retarded but he is not bad at stuffing takedowns in general imo.

Gotta disagree there, Burns is the best grappler he's fought and he got taken down 7 times. I don't think his TDD will be the thing keeping him in the fight here.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Watch his short notice debut against Jouban. He was pretty much a punching bag for the first two rounds, got dropped a bunch and still managed to come out in the third and win that round. He fights through exhaustion, one of the boons of being a volume guy I guess.

Yeah I think that happening against somebody who rips to the body like JDM does is a different story though. Along with Toppy, Josh Van and Josiel Silva I think he's the best body puncher in the sport.

 

[sonhow]

there is a legit argument that Jack is a better version of Leon Edwards, more offensive and better at scrambling to his feet. If you see how bloody Belal looked at the end of the Leon fight and how he was getting gnp in those last 30 seconds, Jack can move the goal post further because he's Leon Edwards on steroids. JDM biggest problem is that his cardio is a mystery, so if he cant carry his power late, Belal will blanket him.

Edwards is much better offensive grappler than Jack. I like Jack a lot but feels like a horrible stylistic matchup. Doesnt help that he hasnt had a blow out win in some time now,

 

[sonhow]

People going HAM on Silva. Almost have to take Grasso now out of principle.

I think Radtke should lose but him taking a role of an asshole and playing against the emotions could work for him. Not to mention Malot on downward trend.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Edwards is much better offensive grappler than Jack. I like Jack a lot but feels like a horrible stylistic matchup. Doesnt help that he hasnt had a blow out win in some time now,

Jdm doesn’t need offensive grappling, its not the path to winning.

What is Belal’s worst matchup?

Heavy handed boxing oriented guys (Geoff Neal) who can score koes and knockdowns (Luque) Jdm is definitely the style matcup that Belal has lost to before.

Of course we have to adjust to improvement, but i see on tape Belal having soso performances , letting Leon reverse him, getting gashed, not checking kicks. We’ll see, i think JDM has a decent shot and he destroyed Randy Brown. Hasef was a bad scoring. And battling Holland in the center toe to toe is not an easy thing to do, he’s only ever lost to grapplers or strikers that fight outside.

 

[sonhow]

Jdm doesn’t need offensive grappling, its not the path to winning.

What is Belal’s worst matchup?

Heavy handed boxing oriented guys (Geoff Neal) who can score koes and knockdowns (Luque) Jdm is definitely the style matcup that Belal has lost to before.

Of course we have to adjust to improvement, but i see on tape Belal having soso performances , letting Leon reverse him, getting gashed, not checking kicks. We’ll see, i think JDM has a decent shot and he destroyed Randy Brown. Hasef was a bad scoring. And battling Holland in the center toe to toe is not an easy thing to do, he’s only ever lost to grapplers or strikers that fight outside.

Hed need to stay on feet or get up asap when taken down. If JDM manages to fight a dog fight he might pull it off.

 

[mkess101]

I'd argue that being a good scrambler is not necessarily a positive thing in this type of match. It's similar to how some stats show Merab doesn't have great control. Who cares if you have the cardio to take them down again and again which makes them desperate to get any offense going. The striking becomes easier as do the takedowns while they get zapped.

This. Scrambling up only matters if it ensures you can eventually get to spots where you excel. Belal has shown he doesn't get frustrated when guys get up against him. He just latches on and grinds. Maybe gets another TD, maybe not but absolutely doesn't give the opponent any room to work.

 

[mkess101]

Scrambling isn't the same as get ups. Good scramblers also open up good offensive grappling opportunities for themselves.

True...but i don't think that's the type of scramble Jack is best at. I don’t see him outscrambling Belal to get to advantageous grappling positions. Jack needs to touch Belal's chin to win imo. He can do it, but it's definitely his ptv imo.

 

[PuertoRican]

 

[mkess101]

"Remember the name"

 

[Guld]

Anybody concerned about the Aldo weight miss/change?

 

[StewDogg11]

Anybody concerned about the Aldo weight miss/change?

Yes. He should’ve never moved down honestly. I still remember at UFC 129 he had to leave a press conference early during fight week because he was about to pass out from from his grueling weight cut and that was at Featherweight obviously.

 

[XociDe]

Anybody concerned about the Aldo weight miss/change?

Probably benefits him tbh. The stats show that ~75% of betting favorites who miss weight go on to win. It seems like his body just refused the cut and a doctor stepped in. He will have had a long time to recover by the time of the fight. To the eye he looks to be in great shape.

Maybe I'm just trying to convince myself because I don't want to live in a world where Jose Aldo loses to an Aiemann Zahabi.

 

[THEfightsAREfixed]

classic username checks out situation for OP