UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena

[Oblivian]

I'm on Shev too. Was not on Ponz or Tate last weekend either. I was, however, on Bo Nickal....

 

[jnes]

Surely Grasso at +200 is wide? Sure she looked like dogshit against Shev in the 3rd but Shev went all in on the wrestling. Silva is credited with 2 takedowns in her 6 fights. This is also a decent step up in competition over a washed Andrade and Araujo.

I know she's the streaking fighter and one of the top prospects in the division but -250 for extremely low finishing upside is crazy. Grasso isn't old, has the experience edge and is live in any striking fight. I think Grasso should be more in the +125-+140 range.

 

[Guld]

Belal down to -188 (was -250). I really think there is value in that bet. The obvious hedge is JDM by KO IMO.
I'm on Manon for now. My logic is that regardless of how that fight plays out, there will probably be plenty of time to cash out/hedge if necessary. (although maybe not at great odds)
I got a bet on Jose for now. Don't get me wrong, I'm very tempted by Zahabi at those odds, but again I feel like having my initial bet on the heavy fav should allow me plenty of time to livebet and nab decent odds on Zahabi if he turns out to be the better side.
In contrast to that, I also got a bet on Radke back when he was +162. He's only +137 now. That might also be a great livebet opportunity if Mike can't get the stoppage early.

 

[JC615]

Surely Grasso at +200 is wide? Sure she looked like dogshit against Shev in the 3rd but Shev went all in on the wrestling. Silva is credited with 2 takedowns in her 6 fights. This is also a decent step up in competition over a washed Andrade and Araujo.

I know she's the streaking fighter and one of the top prospects in the division but -250 for extremely low finishing upside is crazy. Grasso isn't old, has the experience edge and is live in any striking fight. I think Grasso should be more in the +125-+140 range.

Agreed. In my opinion, I don't believe Grasso should be the underdog.

 

[sonhow]

Surely Grasso at +200 is wide? Sure she looked like dogshit against Shev in the 3rd but Shev went all in on the wrestling. Silva is credited with 2 takedowns in her 6 fights. This is also a decent step up in competition over a washed Andrade and Araujo.

I know she's the streaking fighter and one of the top prospects in the division but -250 for extremely low finishing upside is crazy. Grasso isn't old, has the experience edge and is live in any striking fight. I think Grasso should be more in the +125-+140 range.

Ive been having such bad takes lately especially that Bo juice last week but Im feeling Grasso as well the closer the fight gets. Ive been seeing people taking Silva due to wrestling but what are these fights where Natalie shoots takedowns in the ufc? Cant recall one takedown from her. Her tdd looks amazing but in this stylistic matchup it wont matter. Right now I feel Silva wins a close dec but odds getting too juicy for my liking.

 

[sonhow]

Belal odds looking good didnt expect them to get this good. Theres obvious path by just cardio wrassling here. Im as confident as I was with Bo last week lol

 

[Spath]

Belal odds looking good didnt expect them to get this good. Theres obvious path by just cardio wrassling here. Im as confident as I was with Bo last week lol

I’m pretty comfortable with Belal pick, too. Constant pressure and wrestling threat pretty much negates the striking advantage here, as we’ve seen a thousand times before. Belal’s cardio is on point and he can keep working for the full 25 minutes.

I’m, however, not hyped to see this match lol

 

[mkess101]

Ive been having such bad takes lately especially that Bo juice last week but Im feeling Grasso as well the closer the fight gets. Ive been seeing people taking Silva due to wrestling but what are these fights where Natalie shoots takedowns in the ufc? Cant recall one takedown from her. Her tdd looks amazing but in this stylistic matchup it wont matter. Right now I feel Silva wins a close dec but odds getting too juicy for my liking.

They were in Natalia's early UFC fights. Whether she'll implement wrestling here IDK. After seeing Shev use it to completely shut down Grasso...maybe? IMO Nataia hasn't gone to her wrestling more because she hasn't had to. She's trusted her striking and it's won her every fight. But she took down Jasvudicious twice in their fight so she does have it in her game. She **might** decide there's less risk using it here given that Grasso is a capable striker but maybe a bit undersized for the division and having somewhat weak TDD.

People maybe forget it's not just Shev that's taken Grasso down easily. Arajuo did twice. Barber 3 times. Esparza 4 times. Maybe Natalia just decides to strike but maybe not.

 

[sonhow]

They were in Natalia's early UFC fights. Whether she'll implement wrestling here IDK. After seeing Shev use it to completely shut down Grasso...maybe? IMO Nataia hasn't gone to her wrestling more because she hasn't had to. She's trusted her striking and it's won her every fight. But she took down Jasvudicious twice in their fight so she does have it in her game. She **might** decide there's less risk using it here given that Grasso is a capable striker but maybe a bit undersized for the division and having somewhat weak TDD.

People maybe forget it's not just Shev that's taken Grasso down easily. Arajuo did twice. Barber 3 times. Esparza 4 times. Maybe Natalia just decides to strike but maybe not.

But only Shev and Carla out of those really made her pay tho I thought she did enough from bottom to beat Carla. And she did get absolutely blown out of the water by Suarez tho that was a really bad stylistic matchup. Its a weakness for sure though. Silva would be smart to wrestle

 

[mkess101]

But only Shev and Carla out of those really made her pay tho I thought she did enough from bottom to beat Carla. And she did get absolutely blown out of the water by Suarez tho that was a really bad stylistic matchup. Its a weakness for sure though. Silva would be smart to wrestle

Carla was a wrestler only really, so huge edge to Alexa when standing in that matchup. Definitely not the case with Natalia.

I don’t necessarily see a scenario where Silva just puts Grasso on her back and holds her there entire rounds like Shev did. But I can see her getting TD's late in close rounds to secure those rounds with the judges.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I like Zahabi here, pick em fight, and he’s the value side.

His greatest trait is his jab and fight iq.

I think Aldo is stead on fighting the same way every fight and not adapting to different fighters, Bautista was able to beat him the same way merab did. And i think Zahabi will deploy a similar strategy by clinching a lot and peppering him with the jab. Aldo visually looks better on tape, but he slows down in round 3 and never adapts to his opponent. If Aldo was the dog in the fight, i would pick him, i feel the same way about Shevchenko.

 

[PuertoRican]

I like Zahabi here, pick em fight, and he’s the value side.

His greatest trait is his jab and fight iq.

I think Aldo is stead on fighting the same way every fight and not adapting to different fighters, Bautista was able to beat him the same way merab did. And i think Zahabi will deploy a similar strategy by clinching a lot and peppering him with the jab. Aldo visually looks better on tape, but he slows down in round 3 and never adapts to his opponent. If Aldo was the dog in the fight, i would pick him, i feel the same way about Shevchenko.

I like Aiemann Zahabi as well, but I don't like his pre-fight money line.

I'll be on:

• Zahabi decision +250
• Zahabi split/majority decision +800
• Zahabi live bet after Aldo wins R1 at a high clip

 

[guesswhoseback]

@BigSteve was on dfs by the numbers show today moving up in this world

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Are the Belal bettors taking into account just how good of a scrambler JDM is?

 

[BigSteve]

@BigSteve was on dfs by the numbers show today moving up in this world

not my first time

 

[Thesnake101]

Are the Belal bettors taking into account just how good of a scrambler JDM is?

Money's been coming in on Jack so if anything Jack bettors are the ones full of belief here. If Belal's line gets better I might play him.

Jack has great scrambles, shit TDD but it's not like Belal ever tires out or will be completely lost on the feet. Washed up Gilbert was still ahead of JDM before the finish, and despite his BJJ I don't think Burns was ever a particularly great offensive wrestler, nor someone who could mix things up to the degree Belal can. Belal is also more durable to boot, only thing working against him is his age.

Imo this is just a terrible matchup for Jack and I'll be shocked if he's able to win.

 

[Oblivian]

I'd argue that being a good scrambler is not necessarily a positive thing in this type of match. It's similar to how some stats show Merab doesn't have great control. Who cares if you have the cardio to take them down again and again which makes them desperate to get any offense going. The striking becomes easier as do the takedowns while they get zapped.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

I'd argue that being a good scrambler is not necessarily a positive thing in this type of match. It's similar to how some stats show Merab doesn't have great control. Who cares if you have the cardio to take them down again and again which makes them desperate to get any offense going. The striking becomes easier as do the takedowns while they get zapped.

Scrambling isn't the same as get ups. Good scramblers also open up good offensive grappling opportunities for themselves.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Money's been coming in on Jack so if anything Jack bettors are the ones full of belief here. If Belal's line gets better I might play him.

Jack has great scrambles, shit TDD but it's not like Belal ever tires out or will be completely lost on the feet. Washed up Gilbert was still ahead of JDM before the finish, and despite his BJJ I don't think Burns was ever a particularly great offensive wrestler, nor someone who could mix things up to the degree Belal can. Belal is also more durable to boot, only thing working against him is his age.

Imo this is just a terrible matchup for Jack and I'll be shocked if he's able to win.

there is a legit argument that Jack is a better version of Leon Edwards, more offensive and better at scrambling to his feet. If you see how bloody Belal looked at the end of the Leon fight and how he was getting gnp in those last 30 seconds, Jack can move the goal post further because he's Leon Edwards on steroids. JDM biggest problem is that his cardio is a mystery, so if he cant carry his power late, Belal will blanket him.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

there is a legit argument that Jack is a better version of Leon Edwards, more offensive and better at scrambling to his feet. If you see how bloody Belal looked at the end of the Leon fight and how he was getting gnp in those last 30 seconds, Jack can move the goal post further because he's Leon Edwards on steroids. JDM biggest problem is that his cardio is a mystery, so if he cant carry his power late, Belal will blanket him.

Leon also more prone to fighting off the back foot imo. If Belal can't get JDM to go backwards then he could be in for a hell of a time because that guy on the front foot is a nightmare.