UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena

[XociDe]

Aldo should be the much better fighter. The only thing you're betting on is whether or not you think he's gonna fall off a cliff physically (which is possible at any time at his age). Zahabi is no spring chicken either, although he's much younger in fight years. With all that said, I think Aldo wins a clear 30-27.

I think Barriault got unlucky in his last one. It was a moment of madness in a firefight and he got caught with a perfect shot. Pyfer has scary power so can't read too much into that one either. I think he gets the win here. Bruno has horrid cardio and Barriault will throw for 15 mins.

JDM hasn't looked impressive at all imo. The Hafez fight wasn't that close but a top level WW should blow him out of the water. Kevin Holland gave him a very competitive fight. He was down 0-2 on the scorecards against a 37 year old Gilbert Burns. Meanwhile, Belal has made light work of Brady, Burns, and Edwards b2b2b. Absolutely everything points to a Belal 50-45 but knowing this clown sport, JDM via KO. Sadly I'm not even joking. I want to bet Belal but this is the type of fight where something that makes absolutely no sense will happen.

 

[mkess101]

He beat Holland 30-27 imo, not close at all. Same for the short notice fight vs Hafez, I guess he didnt really know what to expect in that fight, but again I wouldn't say it was close in any way. But what can you say, judges are horrible or corrupt. Any time this fight is on the feet Muhammad is in trouble.

Stats don't mean everything but Holland landed 127 sig strikes on Jack. That is a TON in a 3 round fight. JDM landed 105 (also a lot) and imo Jack landed the better shots and I had it 29-28 Jack but saying it wasn't close is pretty ridiculous.

 

[Dooze]

One thing for the Burns fight to note is that he did break JDMs arm in the first round which could be a big reason of why he lost the first two rounds, or at least makes it less bad. Think it also works in his favour that despite a broken arm he continued to throw punches with it, grappled etc.

That said I do expect Bella to beat JDM. I did see a quote from him that he won't shoot a single takedown and plans to stand but I don't expect him to be that stupid, he must know pushing a pace and mixing up his striking with his grappling is what has got him to where he's at.

Think I like Cutelaba in this spot, should be able to mix it up enough and land takedowns to win rounds fairly consistently and maybe get a finish standing or on the ground.

Aldo I expect to win too. He's still great on the feet, his speed and reactions are there. Zahabi is only a year younger than him and it's two different calibre of fighters, even at 38 I still think Aldo is elite.

Less confident but possibly Grasso and Marion as underdogs too. Might just avoid them though as I doubt I'll have any time to look into them further this week so might avoid or let myself be swayed by people who have looked more into them.

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

Fiorot's cardio looked fantastic in her 5 rounder vs Blanchfield. 46 of 85 ss landed in rd 4, 42 of 85 landed in rd 5.

Shev is a different animal than Blanchfied of course but cardio doesn't seem like a worry for Manon at all.

Not just cardio, though in way of find timing, imposing rhythm and volume of punches per round. She was able to do this against Blanchfield because was more static and wasn't put under pressure to waste energy.
And if it decreases tempo it won't be enough to win.

 

[mkess101]

Not just cardio, though in way of find timing, imposing rhythm and volume of punches per round. She was able to do this against Blanchfield because was more static and wasn't put under pressure to waste energy.
And if it decreases tempo it won't be enough to win.

Shev hasn't really been a pressure fighter either recently. She ragdolled the smaller Grasso and if she's able to successfully take Manon down that way it's a wrap. But if not, Valentina isn't the striker she used to be that can put that type of pressure and ruin a really good striker like Manon's rhythm.

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

Shev hasn't really been a pressure fighter either recently. She ragdolled the smaller Grasso and if she's able to successfully take Manon down that way it's a wrap. But if not, Valentina isn't the striker she used to be that can put that type of pressure and ruin a really good striker like Manon's rhythm.

Fact that she is more dangerous with counters and overall can disrupt her rhythm.

 

[StewDogg11]

Belal is at the age where constantly relying on going to decisions is going to blow up in his face at one point or another. He’s soon to be 37 and has tons of fight mileage on him.

 

[PuertoRican]

 

[mkess101]

Fact that she is more dangerous with counters and overall can disrupt her rhythm.

Ehh better than Blanchfield? Yeah definitely. Enough to really slow Manoj down? I don't think so at this point.

 

[Thesnake101]

Shev's is by far and away the best striker Fiorot has had to fight in MMA that alone makes her a must play at dog odds imo.

Only other great striker Manon fought was an undersized Rose who made her land at a 25% clip, slightly outlanded her in significant strikes (60 to 58) and took one round in two of the judges' scorecards. Imo Manon as a favorite isn't a very enticing play, even if you think Val has slowed down significantly (which I couldn't blame you for thinking given the first two Grasso fights).

 

[mkess101]

Shev's is by far and away the best striker Fiorot has had to fight in MMA that alone makes her a must play at dog odds imo.

Only other great striker Manon fought was an undersized Rose who made her land at a 25% clip, slightly outlanded her in significant strikes (60 to 58) and took one round in two of the judges' scorecards. Imo Manon as a favorite isn't a very enticing play, even if you think Val has slowed down significantly (which I couldn't blame you for thinking given the first two Grasso fights).

Not just the first two Grasso fights. She really should've lost the Santos fight. And now we've seen Santos get absolutely worked by Ditcheva in PFL not too long after (and yes Ditcheva is good obviously). Trajectory matters imo, and while Shev answered a lot of questions by dominating the 3rd Grasso fight, a lot of that was her simply realizing she was plain and simple physically stronger than Alexa and could muscle her and control her. Cannot see that vs Manon. And I like Manon landing the heavier shots in the standup here.

Maybe ageism on my part too. In fights I think are competitive, I always lean with the younger and less shopworn fighter.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Not just the first two Grasso fights. She really should've lost the Santos fight. And now we've seen Santos get absolutely worked by Ditcheva in PFL not too long after (and yes Ditcheva is good obviously). Trajectory matters imo, and while Shev answered a lot of questions by dominating the 3rd Grasso fight, a lot of that was her simply realizing she was plain and simple physically stronger than Alexa and could muscle her and control her. Cannot see that vs Manon. And I like Manon landing the heavier shots in the standup here.

Maybe ageism on my part too. In fights I think are competitive, I always lean with the younger and less shopworn fighter.

Manon is 35 tho , she doesn't have much shelf life. 2 years younger.

And Santos was elite at that time before she parted with her coach and got sued, she's on a rapid decline. I think Shevchenko has problems getting off her back like the Maia fight, but Manon is not a crazy top ctrl specialist so it's not going to play out on the ground.

I think her approach with Manon will be different, perhaps she's just going to stand her ground and play the kickboxing game. A large part of her grappling Grasso was also because Grasso has crisp boxing and decent power, she scored a knockdown on Shevchenko in round 1 in the second fight. I think Shevchenko just found the easier path to win. I don't think Manon has that crazy power in her hands, she's a better kicker than a puncher, majority of her punches are check hooks and 1-2 but with not much snap, she tends to throw off the back foot more often counter striking, like an almost hybred karate style kickboxer. If she's going 50/50 with Rose and eating 100s of ss with Blanchefield, I'm agreeing with Snake on this one, it's a 50/50 fight stylistically.

Shevchenko also still has fast punches and kicks, i dont really see her slowing down, i think she has enough here to make the fight competitive. The issue Manon has is that judges tend to lean towards champions retaining the belt if the challenger didn't do enough to win, if the rounds end up looking 50/50 , there is a higher chance they score it for Shevchenko just on principle. I dont see Manon having the crazy number stats like Blanchfield, she just kept walking into her jab.

 

[mkess101]

Manon is 35 tho , she doesn't have much shelf life. 2 years younger.

And Santos was elite at that time before she parted with her coach and got sued, she's on a rapid decline. I think Shevchenko has problems getting off her back like the Maia fight, but Manon is not a crazy top ctrl specialist so it's not going to play out on the ground.

I think her approach with Manon will be different, perhaps she's just going to stand her ground and play the kickboxing game. A large part of her grappling Grasso was also because Grasso has crisp boxing and decent power, she scored a knockdown on Shevchenko in round 1 last fight. I think Shevchenko just found the easier path to win. I don't think Manon has that crazy power in her hands, she's a better kicker than a puncher, majority of her punches are check hooks and 1-2 but with not much snap, she tends to throw off the back foot more often counter striking, like an almost hybred karate style kickboxer. If she's going 50/50 with Rose and eating 100s of ss with Blanchefield, I'm agreeing with Snake on this one, it's a 50/50 fight stylistically.

Shevchenko also still has fast punches and kicks, i dont really see her slowing down, i think she has enough here to make the fight competitive. The issue Manon has is that judges tend to lean towards champions retaining the belt if the challenger didn't do enough to win, if the rounds end up looking 50/50 , there is a higher chance they score it for Shevchenko just on principle. I dont see Manon having the crazy number stats like Blanchfield, she just kept walking into her jab.

All fair points. I do think it will be competitive but I just lean that Manon will be more impactful with what she lands and that will be the difference. I got Manon at -132 and while I don't love the line necessarily, I'm just betting on the girl that I think wins without paying huge juice. I could absolutely be wrong, Shev is a clear top 2 WMMA fighter ever imo.

 

[Oblivian]

I really hope someone gets chinned in Barriault vs Silva. Neither deserve to even be on a numbered UFC card at this point.

 

[Thesnake101]

I really hope someone gets chinned in Barriault vs Silva. Neither deserve to even be on a numbered UFC card at this point.

If Bruno shows up with anxiety again I think he gets stopped late.

 

[guesswhoseback]

Fuck man I know it's only Tuesday so still a few days left to go but a fight where the spread isn't -200 or higher where the majority of sherdoggers are on loses more often then not and this week it looks like manot and shit I like her as well hopefully the sherdog fade don't hit

Last week it was ponz and Tate lol

 

[mkess101]

Fuck man I know it's only Tuesday so still a few days left to go but a fight where the spread isn't -200 or higher where the majority of sherdoggers are on loses more often then not and this week it looks like manot and shit I like her as well hopefully the sherdog fade don't hit

Last week it was ponz and Tate lol

Feels like Manon/Shev is a pretty even split here, no?

 

[guesswhoseback]

I really haven't seen anyone on schev I'll double check

 

[Thesnake101]

I really haven't seen anyone on schev I'll double check

@Stat_Collector and I like Shev here.

 

[PuertoRican]

@Stat_Collector and I like Shev here.

I, too, like Valentina Shevchenko to win this weekend.