UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes

[rille31]

No, just part of a hedge.
Big bet on Volk ML, but smaller hedge bets on Lopes by stoppage.
I can't cash out prop bets, but I can ML bets, so if I see Volk starting to fade I can swap to Lopes bet live.
And if I'm too slow, then I should still recover a few bucks with my Lopes by stoppage bet.

at +120 that hedge doesnt make sense, just bet less on Volk ml

you also lose all bets if Lopez wins a decision

 

[rille31]

Jim Miller +700 wtf

Chase got some questionable striking and wrestling, Jim could also pull off a meme sub

I obviously dont favour him but +700 is nuts

 

[mkess101]

Jim Miller +700 wtf

Chase got some questionable striking and wrestling, Jim could also pull off a meme sub

I obviously dont favour him but +700 is nuts

For sure line is too wide. People getting carried away.

I will say I don't think Hooper has questionable anything anymore. His striking looked sharp AF vs Slava Claus. Dropped him and went to work on top. Wasn't the gangly kid that was sub or bust at all, looked like a killer. Heavy on top and beat the absolute dogshit out of Slava for an entire round. Then took him down again rd 2 and right to mount again. The tap to the choke was maybe phantom but Hooper was absolutely wrecking him anyway.
Guida is obviously washed but Hooper took him down easily too iirc. Seems like he's become a pretty complete fighter now.

 

[sonhow]

For sure line is too wide. People getting carried away.

I will say I don't think Hooper has questionable anything anymore. His striking looked sharp AF vs Slava Claus. Dropped him and went to work on top. Wasn't the gangly kid that was sub or bust at all, looked like a killer. Heavy on top and beat the absolute dogshit out of Slava for an entire round. Then took him down again rd 2 and right to mount again. The tap to the choke was maybe phantom but Hooper was absolutely wrecking him anyway.
Guida is obviously washed but Hooper took him down easily too iirc. Seems like he's become a pretty complete fighter now.

Not to mention he has looked increasingly better every fight since moving up. I think that fw cut was shit to begin with tbh.

I give some chance to Miller because why wouldnt I but I see this almost a way to give Chase more finishes before they match him up with the upper echelon

 

[PuertoRican]

Not to mention he has looked increasingly better every fight since moving up. I think that fw cut was shit to begin with tbh.

I give some chance to Miller because why wouldnt I but I see this almost a way to give Chase more finishes before they match him up with the upper echelon

Not too long ago, Miller was known as a R1 finisher. If you think he's likely to lose against Hooper and think +700 is nuts, you might be more interested in his R1 props instead of his ML:

• Jim Miller R1 +2000 (MGM/Boyd)
• Jim Miller R1 KO/TKO +3200 (Boyd)
• Jim Miller R1 submission +4200 (Boyd)

 

[sonhow]

Not too long ago, Miller was known as a R1 finisher. If you think he's likely to lose against Hooper and think +700 is nuts, you might be more interested in his R1 props instead of his ML:

• Jim Miller R1 +2000 (MGM/Boyd)
• Jim Miller R1 KO/TKO +3200 (Boyd)
• Jim Miller R1 submission +4200 (Boyd)

R1 sounds good in general unless Chase is chaining subs and Miller keeps escaping.

 

[PuertoRican]

Nora Cornolle missed weight by 2 pounds.

Jean Silva missed weight by 1 pound and then was given time to make weight, which he did.

Everyone else was responsible and made weight.

 

[Guld]

Weigh In vid + photos:

Photos: UFC 314 official weigh-ins

Get a closer look at the fighters on the scale at UFC 314 official weigh-ins with these exclusive photos.

mmajunkie.usatoday.com

 

[Oblivian]

I'm coming around to playing Lopes and Mitchell here. I was on the fence on both of those.

 

[Sean Chowdhury]

this is my safe parlay, legit think this has a least a 80% chance of hitting

 

[Stat_Collector]

Expecting Erosa to finish Elkins who just survives against light hitters. And he's looked very slowed down in his lasts fights.

Finish line is 135+

 

[sonhow]

Expecting Erosa to finish Elkins who just survives against light hitters. And he's looked very slowed down in his lasts fights.

Finish line is 135+

100p unless Erosa tries to guilly him and that never seems to work vs Elkins. I think he should be able to stop him with strikes. Cub did it so effortlessly I cant believe Elkins is still on roster and coming off wins. You just gotta fight angainst him the certain way. Like an iq test almost.

 

[Stat_Collector]

100p unless Erosa tries to guilly him and that never seems to work vs Elkins. I think he should be able to stop him with strikes. Cub did it so effortlessly I cant believe Elkins is still on roster and coming off wins. You just gotta fight angainst him the certain way. Like an iq test almost.

My worry is a club and sub type deal. he has 1 sub L with Olly. This could be his last fight.

 

[sonhow]

My worry is a club and sub type deal. he has 1 sub L with Olly. This could be his last fight.

Yes itd aka ko and sub of course is better just not jumping gillys! I just think hes better of striking first in this one.

 

[Oblivian]

The biggest part of Erosa's game that has improved is his sub game and confidence in it. I don't think his striking looks much improved at all. I mean he got sparked by Caceres who rarely ever sparks anyone. I can see Elkins making this into a grappling match, but keep in mind Erosa is pretty game and keeps coming forward too. Elkins likes to exploit grappling and cardio deficiencies, which Erosa doesn't have either. Honestly, I can see this going to a back and forth decision.

 

[mkess101]

Always have to consider Elkins scar tissue, dude is basically gushing blood on his way into the cage LOL. Makes TKO a bit more likely, and it's harder to lock up a sub when both guys are slick from being covered in blood.

 

[Thesnake101]

Always have to consider Elkins scar tissue, dude is basically gushing blood on his way into the cage LOL. Makes TKO a bit more likely, and it's harder to lock up a sub when both guys are slick from being covered in blood.

TKO by cuts is so rare tho, you've had guys gushing blood out the wazoo, covering themselves and their opponents and the Dr doesn't even get called to check.

Imo Elkins is the clear side here, Erosa tends to do best against more inexperienced guys but falter against vets and the line is so wide it's nuts, but if you don't feel confident in Darren due to his approach and age, the over is a good way to play it as well. Julian is no stranger to late finishes and Darren is very unlikely to wilt early.

 

[mkess101]

TKO by cuts is so rare tho, you've had guys gushing blood out the wazoo, covering themselves and their opponents and the Dr doesn't even get called to check.

Imo Elkins is the clear side here, Erosa tends to do best against more inexperienced guys but falter against vets and the line is so wide it's nuts, but if you don't feel confident in Darren due to his approach and age, the over is a good way to play it as well. Julian is no stranger to late finishes and Darren is very unlikely to wilt early.

Fight is a pass for me, especially ML. TKO from cuts are rare, that's fair. But his are all over the top of his eyes and when vision gets affected that's where they at least look closer, even if the cuts aren't super deep.

I tend to agree on the over, fight likely sees rd 3 at least.

 

[Thesnake101]

Fight is a pass for me, especially ML. TKO from cuts are rare, that's fair. But his are all over the top of his eyes and when vision gets affected that's where they at least look closer, even if the cuts aren't super deep.

I tend to agree on the over, fight likely sees rd 3 at least.

Just looked and the over is at evens for me, moght take a plunge if I hit something early.

Got Raposo by sub at +1700. Crazy odds considering he should wrestle like hell here and Su is a sub magnet.

 

[mkess101]

Just looked and the over is at evens for me, moght take a plunge if I hit something early.

Got Raposo by sub at +1700. Crazy odds considering he should wrestle like hell here and Su is a sub magnet.

And Su been taken down in his last 3 fights.