UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes

[Bakayoko]

What’s his TDD like? Mitchell absolutely dwarfed him at the faceoffs a couple weeks ago, legit looked a weight class bigger.

Bryce get absolutely get him down but because of techique not physicallity.He's taller so you think he's heavier but he's not,silva is more stocky and was also fighting Dober at 155 like 3 weeks after his 145 fight.

 

[fortheo]

He didn't vs Ortega though. And he was using a ridiculous amount energy attacking off his back vs Movsar who obviously pushes a relentless grappling pace. I think for sure if it goes past 3 that Volk likely looks fresher but it theoretically could be 3-0 Lopes and Volk needing a finish. And maybe Lopes paces himself s bit better knowing it's a 5 rounder.

I think most of the finishing upside is with Lopes too.

Lopes was in complete control of the ortega fight from the opening bell of that fight. of course he wouldn't gas when he was controlling every exchange.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Anyone got an early read on Tulio-Gore?

I think I might have to tape study this one.

Tulio is a monster hitter who probably wins a striking battle, which I assume this won't be?

I'm not sure anyone has tried to take Tulio down so far across his DWCS/UFC fights, so anyone have any info on how he'll look if/when Gore goes all-out grappling?

I've got this next on my taping list. Initial feeling is value on Gore.

 

[mkess101]

Lopes was in complete control of the ortega fight from the opening bell of that fight. of course he wouldn't gas when he was controlling every exchange.

The Evloev fight is a better example. High paced, tons of grappling. 5 days notice for Lopes, and he was attacking subs all the way through. Throwing power shots in rd 3. Had a pretty deep knee bar on Movsar right up until the closing bell.

He definitely gassed in the Ige fight. So there's some concern. But this isn't short notice and he'll be training for 5 rounds.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Anyone got an early read on Tulio-Gore?

I think I might have to tape study this one.

Tulio is a monster hitter who probably wins a striking battle, which I assume this won't be?

I'm not sure anyone has tried to take Tulio down so far across his DWCS/UFC fights, so anyone have any info on how he'll look if/when Gore goes all-out grappling?

Taped and took Gore. Odds don't make any sense to me. Feels like a close sloppy brawl if it's on the feet and I think Gore can possibly take Tulio down and I'm not sure Tulio can take him down. I don't think Gore is a lock or anything but at 3.6 I'm playing it.

 

[sonhow]

The Evloev fight is a better example. High paced, tons of grappling. 5 days notice for Lopes, and he was attacking subs all the way through. Throwing power shots in rd 3. Had a pretty deep knee bar on Movsar right up until the closing bell.

He definitely gassed in the Ige fight. So there's some concern. But this isn't short notice and he'll be training for 5 rounds.

If I recall right didnt Movsar rock him a bit in rd2? Take it what you will, either its impressive that he had a good rd 3 after or that hw can be stung in a wild fight.

Its hard to gauge Volk or how much he has fallen off imo. In my opinnion he lost to two of the absolute best mixed martial artist in the world and has had a layoff to heal up. The other side would be that he is getting old and facing a young lion.

If the odds change and I get better odds Im feeling I might take Volk here. I havent seen a big drop off in his skills yet I fully expected him to get koed by Ilya and that happened.

 

[mkess101]

If I recall right didnt Movsar rock him a bit in rd2? Take it what you will, either its impressive that he had a good rd 3 after or that hw can be stung in a wild fight.

Its hard to gauge Volk or how much he has fallen off imo. In my opinnion he lost to two of the absolute best mixed martial artist in the world and has had a layoff to heal up. The other side would be that he is getting old and facing a young lion.

If the odds change and I get better odds Im feeling I might take Volk here. I havent seen a big drop off in his skills yet I fully expected him to get koed by Ilya and that happened.

Yep. I got Lopes around +135 but odds have shifted and he's I think like +105 now. I've been impressed with him. I kinda thought he was just a wild man that was good at finishing early but not much else but in watching some tape he's better than that. Well rounded, more defensively sound than I thought (but yes still a bit wild in pocket exchanges sometimes). Really good grappler/scrambler.

Prime Volk imo would be a level higher and have all the answers for Diego. Now? Not sure. Obviously losing to Ilia and Islam isn't alone a big deal. Two killers, all time talents. But mileage matters a lot. Volk came up playing rugby and was like 220 lbs. No way he wasn't beating the absolute shit out of his body for all those years. Then a long MMA career and the 2nd half fighting nothing but the best dudes in the world. Then getting brutally KO'd twice in a row. I just can't think he's the same guy. Good enough to still win here? Maybe. But imo Lopes at +135 was good enough for me in what I think is a coin toss fight. I'd probably have played his itd or KO line but it wasn't released yet when I was at the casino and made the bet.

 

[sonhow]

Yep. I got Lopes around +135 but odds have shifted and he's I think like +105 now. I've been impressed with him. I kinda thought he was just a wild man that was good at finishing early but not much else but in watching some tape he's better than that. Well rounded, more defensively sound than I thought (but yes still a bit wild in pocket exchanges sometimes). Really good grappler/scrambler.

Prime Volk imo would be a level higher and have all the answers for Diego. Now? Not sure. Obviously losing to Ilia and Islam isn't alone a big deal. Two killers, all time talents. But mileage matters a lot. Volk came up playing rugby and was like 220 lbs. No way he wasn't beating the absolute shit out of his body for all those years. Then a long MMA career and the 2nd half fighting nothing but the best dudes in the world. Then getting brutally KO'd twice in a row. I just can't think he's the same guy. Good enough to still win here? Maybe. But imo Lopes at +135 was good enough for me in what I think is a coin toss fight. I'd probably have played his itd or KO line but it wasn't released yet when I was at the casino and made the bet.

I like Lopes as fighter too and if I dont decide to bet on Volk I probably root for him cause he is so exciting.
But my action depends on line movement for this one.

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

 

[guesswhoseback]

Even if they aren't their primary drill partners, they seem like a crew that is helping each other out and more tight knit than some other camps.
Also, I don't know what Jean's walk around weight is, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's over 175.

EDIT: I guess he's rolling with Gilbert Burns

I wasn't trying to be rude when I was saying that sorry if it came out that ok he might walk around 175 no idea but then you also have to assume caio walks around at like 210 I'm not trying to say they don't train together but most MMA gyms they separate weight classes for training for example idk 170 and down from lets say 9-11 171 and up 11-1 or something along those lines if they do train together it's minimal im assuming

 

[svmr_db]

 

[Bakayoko]

Early Silva was wide,but if people pile up on Bryce because of that sequence where he was relaxed and wasn't prepared for grappling from primarly a striker and Silva price goes more up it will be an easy click

 

[sonhow]

Im interested to see how crowd reacts to Mitchell and how he responds to reaction. In Florida he might actually get cheered lol

 

[Guld]

I wasn't trying to be rude when I was saying that sorry if it came out that ok he might walk around 175 no idea but then you also have to assume caio walks around at like 210 I'm not trying to say they don't train together but most MMA gyms they separate weight classes for training for example idk 170 and down from lets say 9-11 171 and up 11-1 or something along those lines if they do train together it's minimal im assuming

Oh, I didn't find it rude at all lol. You had a solid point, and I agree with what you are saying. Caio and Jean wouldn't likely be main sparring/rolling partners due to the size diff. I shouldn't have implied otherwise. My bad.

 

[Guld]

As somebody that has recently rewatched that fight, those bits are carefully clipped (takedown 1 and 3 anyway)
He pops up and avoids any danger after the first takedown.
The second part rightfully ends when the bell rings.
Right after the third part ends Jean KOs him and kinda has a laugh about it.

EDIT: and as @Bakayoko stated, Jean was prepped for the striking threat and took a lot more grappling risks than he would with a grappler.

Double EDIT: I'm still not implying that there is no value in a Bryce bet. I could easily see him capitalizing on a grappling exchange and snapping up a sub, or exhausting Jean and getting a stoppage/decision. There is definitely a path to victory for him.

 

[BigDramaShow26]

Prates is now the ME with Garry for the FN card after 314.
You think Garry wins that one as well?

I think Neal is underrated so I was more interested in him at >+300 odds. Garry fights too many close fights for my liking.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I've got this next on my taping list. Initial feeling is value on Gore.

i think his chin is terrible. The brundage fight he got stiffed very easily and was out by a few follow up shots on the ground. which means his recovery isn’t there, i would hate to bet against Tulio who is a ko artist.