UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes

[Dooze]

Early bets that I might add to if the odds drift further;

1u Chandler @ 2.3
0.5u Elkins @ 4.0
0.5u Ige @ 2.25
0.5u Dumas @ 2.75

I thought Chandler would be the favourite here. I don't think I can see Paddy manhandling Mike to get him down and on the feet Mike is better and hits a lot harder. Hard to see how good Paddy is given how washed Tony is, and Bobby Green is obviously on the decline. Mike is getting on in age and 1-4 but the 4 losses were to essentially 2nd/3rd and 4th best guys at LW and pretty much anyone not called Islam likely takes those losses too.

Elkins it's ridiculous odds given Juicy J is a solid but not spectacular fighter. We all know Elkins at this point, sure he can lose but he's going to fight for my money and I don't know if Juicy J has it in him to avoid that for the entire fight. He's got a decent submission game and a decent striking game, but I don't think his wrestling is anything special. I see Darren starting the fight already bloody faced from the air touching his face as he walks to the cage, made worse by the cutman rubbing vaseline on his face during the pre fight check while case side Erosa likely winning an early striking battle, Elkins walking him down and shooting, Erosa trying to guillotine Elkins rather than stuff the takedown like the 35 fighters before him, it too look tight then Elkins to escape it and steal rounds. Rinse and repeat.

Ige I think is a step up for Woodson who has looked good l. Woodson might land the better strikes and win a decision but I think Ige will be confident in his chin and could land the bigger strikes. I expect it to be fairly close tbh.

Dumas I hope I lose my bet because the guy is a fucking cunt and a disgusting human being. Unfortunately I think he's a competent fighter and can possibly outpoint Michael here. It's more just odds hunting because I don't think he should be as wide as he is here, but I genuinely hope I'm proven wrong and Dumas ends up on the wrong end of a Pat Curran Vs Joe Warren beating here.

 

[BigDramaShow26]

Bummed we lost the Prates fight as I was excited to bet Neal. These are tough fights to cap for me. A lot of older guys who would otherwise be slam dunk bets for me. Chandler, Volk, Pitbull all are guys I would be betting if this were 3-4 years ago.

I like that Volk took over a year off. It's possible Volk just fought the two best fighters back to back and he just mauls Diego here, but Volk has been rocked early in fights too. Probably a stay away until after round 1 or 2 for me.

 

[Guld]

Bummed we lost the Prates fight as I was excited to bet Neal. These are tough fights to cap for me. A lot of older guys who would otherwise be slam dunk bets for me. Chandler, Volk, Pitbull all are guys I would be betting if this were 3-4 years ago.

I like that Volk took over a year off. It's possible Volk just fought the two best fighters back to back and he just mauls Diego here, but Volk has been rocked early in fights too. Probably a stay away until after round 1 or 2 for me.

Prates is now the ME with Garry for the FN card after 314.
You think Garry wins that one as well?

 

[guesswhoseback]

in the words of @BigSteve EARLY TEASE check out his youtube chanell

cornolle-dec
tulio-ko2
montes-sub2
raposo-ko2
dumbass-dec
erosa-dec
hooper-sub2
jandiroba-dec
woodson-dec
krylov-ko2
ferrier-dec
silva-ko2
pimblett-dec
lopez-dec

 

[Kazda1]

People constantly underrate Virna. She's exceedingly one dimensional but it takes a special counter grappler to stop her from doing what she does. I don't think Yan is that. Really tough for me to see Virna not being able to get 2 rounds through control.

I don't under-rate her at all. I honestly think of her as a female version of Demian Maia lol. She's one of my favorite women's fighters. I just wonder if this was a situation similar to when she fought Ribas and maybe Yan is the type maybe replicate that fight some. Otherwise I agree with you.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Chandler as a dog in a 5 rounder with Paddy is a no brainer imo.

 

[Guld]

Jean Silva to -275 (from -350)

 

[DoctorTaco]

I’m putting cash on:

Woodson
paddy
Dumas
krylov
lopes

I’ve turned my 200 dollar gambling bankroll to a little over 900 following an Ai I pay 5 bucks a month on patreon to have access to.

Systematically I put 10% of my bankroll down for each fight and I don’t take odds any better than -200. No parlays, no props. Boring, grind it out bets that have been consistently paying off. I’ve got 90 bucks on each of those bets.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

I’m putting cash on:

Woodson
paddy
Dumas
krylov
lopes

I’ve turned my 200 dollar gambling bankroll to a little over 900 following an Ai I pay 5 bucks a month on patreon to have access to.

Systematically I put 10% of my bankroll down for each fight and I don’t take odds any better than -200. No parlays, no props. Boring, grind it out bets that have been consistently paying off. I’ve got 90 bucks on each of those bets.

dumbass is a horrible bet one of the worst fighters in whole roster

 

[DoctorTaco]

dumbass is a horrible bet one of the worst fighters in whole roster

I do what my robot overlord demands of me

 

[StewDogg11]

Jean Silva to -275 (from -350)

What’s his TDD like? Mitchell absolutely dwarfed him at the faceoffs a couple weeks ago, legit looked a weight class bigger.

 

[Siver!]

Anyone got an early read on Tulio-Gore?

I think I might have to tape study this one.

Tulio is a monster hitter who probably wins a striking battle, which I assume this won't be?

I'm not sure anyone has tried to take Tulio down so far across his DWCS/UFC fights, so anyone have any info on how he'll look if/when Gore goes all-out grappling?

 

[PuertoRican]

February 26, 2024:

Central Texas UFC fighter Hailey Cowan ready to get back in the octagon after a year of setbacks

Central Texas’ only female UFC fighter in history finally has her next fight scheduled.

www.kwtx.com

April 26, 2024: https://www.mmafighting.com/2024/4/...res-vidal-ufc-vegas-92-melissa-gatto-steps-in
May 21, 2024: https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2024...-brennan-arrested-child-sex-crime-allegations

Hailey Cowan summary in the order they appear in the above links:

• In February 2023, Cowan withdrew from her fight against Ailin Perez due to "an ovarian cyst that ruptured just hours before the competition."
• In March 2023, Cowan's opponent, Tamires Vidal, withdrew from their fight because she "fell ill the day before the fight."
• On April 29, 2023, Cowan finally made her UFC debut and it was a loss against Jamey-Lyn Horth by decision. Cowan was 1.5 pounds overweight for this fight.
• Cowan was scheduled to fight Zarah Fairn in September 2023, but Cowan "tore her ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in her elbow during training."
• In April 2024, Cowan withdrew from her second scheduled fight against Tamires Vidal due to a broken fibula.
• In May 2024, Cowan's husband and MMA coach was arrested on child sex crime allegations in Texas. Cowan hasn't fought since.
• UFC 314 marks Cowan's return to the octagon after a 2-year absence from MMA.

 

[Guld]

What’s his TDD like? Mitchell absolutely dwarfed him at the faceoffs a couple weeks ago, legit looked a weight class bigger.

His footwork and speed make me think that Bryce won't even catch him, so we may not find out.
I want to say that we've seen Jean's TDD and grappling on display already (although I can't remember which fight/fights). Not against somebody the same caliber as Bryce I'm sure, but I just really question the ability for Bryce to be able to initiate a proper grappling exchange.

Jean does train with Caio regularly I believe, so I imagine he's no scrub. I'll do some rewatch/stat look up and see if I can find proof of his grappling in action.

 

[Guld]

Jean Silva TDD

Dober was 0/4
Jourdain was 3/7 1:17 control time
Wilson 0/3 (Silva was actually 1/1 on this one but negligiblecontrol time for either)
Vallejos 0/1 (Silva was 1/3 again negligible control time for either)

I'll give the Jourdain fight a quick rewatch and see how the takedowns happen and if there is some holes in his game.

 

[Guld]

Rewatch complete.

Silva looks very confident, and the only times Jourdain had grappling success is when Jean got impatient.
Silva rushed in looking for the knockout in the second and that was what led to the only real takedown+control time of the fight.
Every "takedown" that Charles got, Jean was instantly squirming and getting back to his feet. The only "control time" was when Charles held him against the cage while trying to get a takedown and was getting stuffed/eating elbows.

Now, with all that being said, Bryce is a significant step up over Jourdain when it comes to grappling + subs. If he had some of those positions I imagine he'd make a lot more of them. Jourdain is a lot faster than Bryce though, and his striking defense is better.

It really feels like we are going to see something similar to Bryce vs Emmett IMO. It might take a few more hits, but that's just how I see it playing out.

 

[Kazda1]

People constantly underrate Virna. She's exceedingly one dimensional but it takes a special counter grappler to stop her from doing what she does. I don't think Yan is that. Really tough for me to see Virna not being able to get 2 rounds through control.

Upon more review, under the right circumstances I think Yan has more than a chance here. I would worry some about what happens in the instance Yan sits back and fights at distance not allowing Virna in on her. Virna won't offer much here striking and I wouldn't necessarily consider her to be the controlling type of grappler Yan has shown a history of losing to. I'd like to think Yan is much better potentially at keeping distance than Ribas is, and Ribas kept Virna at bay for long stretches of time.

I would also be concerned about Yan who found herself wrecklessly in a dangerous spot early on against Weili and if she can avoid the same from Virna.

All said, I'm gonna wait on a better price come end of the week on Virna.

 

[guesswhoseback]

His footwork and speed make me think that Bryce won't even catch him, so we may not find out.
I want to say that we've seen Jean's TDD and grappling on display already (although I can't remember which fight/fights). Not against somebody the same caliber as Bryce I'm sure, but I just really question the ability for Bryce to be able to initiate a proper grappling exchange.

Jean does train with Caio regularly I believe, so I imagine he's no scrub. I'll do some rewatch/stat look up and see if I can find proof of his grappling in action.

So since they are both from the same camp you really think a 145er trainst consistantly with a 185er Hmm very intresting lol

 

[Guld]

So since they are both from the same camp you really think a 145er trainst consistantly with a 185er Hmm very intresting lol

Even if they aren't their primary drill partners, they seem like a crew that is helping each other out and more tight knit than some other camps.
Also, I don't know what Jean's walk around weight is, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's over 175.

EDIT: I guess he's rolling with Gilbert Burns

 

[Bakayoko]

He didn't vs Ortega though. And he was using a ridiculous amount energy attacking off his back vs Movsar who obviously pushes a relentless grappling pace. I think for sure if it goes past 3 that Volk likely looks fresher but it theoretically could be 3-0 Lopes and Volk needing a finish. And maybe Lopes paces himself s bit better knowing it's a 5 rounder.

I think most of the finishing upside is with Lopes too.

Ortega looked pretty washed and didn't show much except toughness.I agree he has lot of finishing upside early,but very unlikely he banks 3 rounds,no one did it to volk,topuria also lost r1.I watch the Ige fight and how gassed he looked in the 3rd and if i were to bet him,i would play him U 2,5 rounds.