UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2

[dwightschrute111]

Jimmy Crute KO at big odds for me

Been out a while so may be rusty but Bellato is there to be KO'd

 

[mkess101]

Sean looked pretty bad vs Costa

added staph infection in his arm, i played the dec line for dricus.

Took Tatiana over Weili, she was out grappled by Rose, and Xio Yan also swept her a few times and secured some CTRL time.

Jimmy Crute has a decent shot, Bellato had some sloppy defense and was in deep waters by Ihor. Crute also has a decent chin and recovery , ate some heavy shots from Menifield.

Rong over Steele. Rong also has a sturdy chin, more mma experience and younger. Gave Bahamondes a decent scrap.

When did you bet Tatiana? I'm baffled people betting her as a fave here. Weili has had some dogfights yeah but she's active and beating top competition while Suarez has been hurt, getting surgeries, and not fighting.

Do people realize that Weili is 5 months older than Suarez LOL? Tatiana has 10 pro fights...she's 35 fucking years old!

Is there a ptv for Suarez? Of course, and we all know what it is. And if she was +200...okay then, I'd get it. But paying juice on her? She's never even had a scheduled 5 rounder, let alone been tested in a high paced championship fight.

Again, I won't fall out of my chair if she wins but I cannot fathom favoring her given all the red flags. 3 fights in SIX YEARS. Long layoff again. Huge step up in competition.

Edit: Suarez is 34, not 35. Still...34 and 10 pro fights.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Do people realize that Weili is 5 months older than Suarez LOL? Tatiana has 10 pro fights...she's 35 fucking years old!

Is there a ptv for Suarez? Of course, and we all know what it is. And if she was +200...okay then, I'd get it. But paying juice on her? She's never even had a scheduled 5 rounder, let alone been tested in a high paced championship fight.

Again, I won't fall out of my chair if she wins but I cannot fathom favoring her given all the red flags. 3 fights in SIX YEARS. Long layoff again. Huge step up in competition.

Weili is not the snappy striker she once was, she is reaching that level of
washed where she is more grappling heavy like Shevchenko. If that is the case i favor Suarez to out wrestle her with superior scrambles top ctrl and bjj. She has a wrestling base so i’m expecting her to have a cardio that is specific for grappling. If i know Rose can secure 7 mins of ctrl i expect tatiana to get over 10 mins and do more damage with gnp. As rose did
to weili in rnd 5. I get activity, but i take that with a grain of salt, there are more redflags for weili ,like getting koed by Rose , kd by yan and swept by yan and put on her back a lot.

Dec line for Tatiana is 400+ and 700+ ko line. Two things i can imagine happening, Weiling ate hard shots in rnd5 with rose and looked fatigued.

 

[mkess101]

Weili is not the snappy striker she once was, she is reaching that level of
washed where she is more grappling heavy like Shevchenko. If that is the case i favor Suarez to out wrestle her with superior scrambles too ctrl and bjj. She has a wrestling base so i’m expecting her to have a cardio that is specific for grappling. If inknow Rose can secure 7 mins of ctrl i expect tatiana to get over 10 mins and do more damage with gnp. As rose did
to weili in rnd 5. I get activity, but i take that with a grain of salt, there are more redflags for weili ,like getting koed by Rose , kd by yan and swept by yan and put on her back a lot.

Dec line for Tatiana is 400+ and 700+ ko line. Two things i can imagine happening, Weiling ate hard shots in rnd5 with rose and looked fatigued.

IMO constantly having injuries and surgeries is way more a red flag. Tatiana looked gassed in rd 3 vs Nunes so not sure how anyone can be confident she has 5 round cardio. Maybe that was an outlier, she was allegedly hurt (but that's her default to a degree).

Weili is still a sharper and better striker BY FAR than Suarez. Yan is an elite striker, so Weili having to go the grappling route there makes sense. Tatiana can't pose that type of threat standing.

 

[PuertoRican]

 

[Stat_Collector]

IMO constantly having injuries and surgeries is way more a red flag. Tatiana looked gassed in rd 3 vs Nunes so not sure how anyone can be confident she has 5 round cardio. Maybe that was an outlier, she was allegedly hurt (but that's her default to a degree).

Weili is still a sharper and better striker BY FAR than Suarez. Yan is an elite striker, so Weili having to go the grappling route there makes sense. Tatiana can't pose that type of thr

Her standup is cleaner than it was 6 years ago. She keeps her hands up pretty high and safe , she might get tagged, but she looks like she can take a punch, she's got masculine features and broad shoulders. Cant really go off a fight from 2019, she didn't have the same defense, she has a looser foot work on the feet now, and she's going to be burning less energy when she gets Weili down.

If she times her td perfectly with Weili's kicks, i dont see why she cant take her down and coast to a decision. 400+ is good value because i know Weili is a decent technician on the ground and will survive Suarez sub attempts.

I'll be fair i dont think you can lose with either one of these ladies pre bet, they'll both fight for your money, i dont expect it to be an easy fight either way.

 

[mkess101]

Her standup is cleaner than it was 6 years ago. She keeps her hands up pretty high and safe , she might get tagged, but she looks like she can take a punch, she's got masculine features and broad shoulders. Cant really go off a fight from 2019, she didn't have the same defense, she has a looser foot work on the feet now, and she's going to be burning less energy when she gets Weili down.

If she times her td perfectly with Weili's kicks, i dont see why she cant take her down and coast to a decision. 400+ is good value because i know Weili is a decent technician on the ground and will survive Suarez sub attempts.

I'll be fair i dont think you can lose with either one of these ladies pre bet, they'll both fight for your money, i dont expect it to be an easy fight either way.

The +400 decision line I agree is juicy. Probably the way to play Suarez if you're gonna.

IMO it's just hard to even know what you'll get from Suarez. She's always hurt and never fights. It seems like the range of outcomes with how she'll perform is way wider than with Weili. Suarez could look amazing, refreshed and smooth and like the champ in waiting many thought she was. Or she could look rusty and sluggish. Weili will look like...Weili.

 

[Oblivian]

Weird event to bet on. I don't think I have a single play that I'm super confident in. Big fan of Suarez, but I agree that you have to play Weili here. I mean Suarez hasn't gone to the 3rd round since 2019. This could get ugly for her late.

I feel like I'm getting trapped with Crute/Bellato ITD. It's under -300, and I think it's finished the bulk of the time. To be fair, ITD probably trap me more than anything.

Mathews seems like the obvious play in his fight, but man can he be flakey.

Tafa I like to land here. I'd argue Tex's early finishing ability will be his downfall. He'd be best being patient here.

Probably a dog trap here, but Brasil looked great against McCann. I actually bet Fernandes against Wang too. I think she's overhyped and this seems like a must play to me.

 

[Thesnake101]

I might play Prado. Matthews has fallen in love with his hands despite being a grappler, and won't use his BJJ unless his opponent shoots first. Could see it being a repeat of his loss to Semelsberger, getting pressured by a brawler with a good chin.

 

[sonhow]

Joker vs Batman

Usually Batman beats the odds and outlasts Joker in the end so gonna take Batman as dog here

 

[Stat_Collector]

I might play Prado. Matthews has fallen in love with his hands despite being a grappler, and won't use his BJJ unless his opponent shoots first. Could see it being a repeat of his loss to Semelsberger, getting pressured by a brawler with a good chin.

Weight jump for Prado tho. Semelsberger is a decent athlete and a natural 170. i like Jake here in his home court and his natural weight. Prado can be very hittable , i think for brawlers like him , size matter a tad bit.

 

[sonhow]

People going HAM on Suarez line

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

People going HAM on Suarez line

The sharps have spoken.

 

[Thesnake101]

Weight jump for Prado tho. Semelsberger is a decent athlete and a natural 170. i like Jake here in his home court and his natural weight. Prado can be very hittable , i think for brawlers like him , size matter a tad bit.

Prado's got fights at 170 and 165 before, and at 22 is young enough to still be growing into his frame just like Matthews was when he moved from LW to WW.

I think they'll be close enough in size (1 inch difference in height) for it to not matter much unless they get into a wrestling exchange, and if he tags Jake first then that'll tunnel vision Jake into brawling. Jake's the rightful favorite but odds are wide enough for me to consider a dog play justified.

 

[Broe.]

Holy smokes Zhang is +140 now

 

[mkess101]

The sharps have spoken.

Like when Umar's line got hammered vs Merab?

Line movement isn't always sharps. Especially if people are seeing that "0" in the loss column for Suarez and blindly betting her.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Prado's got fights at 170 and 165 before, and at 22 is young enough to still be growing into his frame just like Matthews was when he moved from LW to WW.

I think they'll be close enough in size (1 inch difference in height) for it to not matter much unless they get into a wrestling exchange, and if he tags Jake first then that'll tunnel vision Jake into brawling. Jake's the rightful favorite but odds are wide enough for me to consider a dog play justified.

4+inch in reach tho.
I didn't like the damage he took against Zellhuber , just put that side by side with Jake's performance against a heavier Phil Rowe who also is as long as Zellhuber or more, and Jake did a lot better. Jake is still young too at 30. Prado has a similar standup style to Jake, but he can get sloppy at times and miss his shot. Who knows, it's possible, but he can get robbed by bias judging if it becomes a close fight, and i dont see him finishing Jake either, he tends to finish guys with terrible durability.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Like when Umar's line got hammered vs Merab?

Line movement isn't always sharps. Especially if people are seeing that "0" in the loss column for Suarez and blindly betting her.

I ended up putting Weili dec line in a hedge bet, she now is the value side at 365+

i might lose a unit either way from betting both sides, but i'm going to see profit if the scorecards are brought out. Which wmma usually does.

 

[mkess101]

I ended up putting Weili dec line in a hedge bet, she now is the value side at 365+

i might lose a unit either way from betting both sides, but i'm going to see profit if the scorecards are brought out. Which wmma usually does.

I definitely lean that it hits the cards. And my guess is Suarez wins rd 1, so if I had access to reliable live betting I'd be looking to play Weili big after rd 1 if Suarez looks good and odds were nice on Weili.

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

Like when Umar's line got hammered vs Merab?

Line movement isn't always sharps. Especially if people are seeing that "0" in the loss column for Suarez and blindly betting her.

No?

Umar went OUT from -340 to -270 starting exactly 1 week from close.

This line has gone from -100 to -150 starting from exactly last week.