UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2

[Stat_Collector]

I think Nolan's cardio is fine...it's Slava that I wonder about. The Llontop fight had a good pace, but not frenetic and Slava's hands dropped in rd 3 and he looked tired as hell.

I definitely don't consider Nolan any sort of lock or think he should be a big favorite. Historically though, way younger fighters with longer reach win a high % of the time in striker vs striker fights so taking Nolan as a dog makes sense to me.

I did rewatch the Llontop fight just now and he didn't look gassy, he still had fast hands and ended the fight with an attempted rolling thunder kick.

As far your last statistic, reach advantage actually only applies to the heavier weight classes, it's been proven that it matters less with lighter guys. Mainly because they are so fast that they cover distance better than their heavier collogues. I'm sure it plays a factor in closer fights, but Nolan already has a chin issue. He got dropped by Victor Martinez who sucks.

 

[mkess101]

I did rewatch the Llontop fight just now and he didn't look gassy, he still had fast hands and ended the fight with an attempted rolling thunder kick.

As far your last statistic, reach advantage actually only applies to the heavier weight classes, it's been proven that it matters less with lighter guys. Mainly because they are so fast that they cover distance better than their heavier collogues. I'm sure it plays a factor in closer fights, but Nolan already has a chin issue. He got dropped by Victor Martinez who sucks.

Nolan definitely a little sloppy, but he recovered fine. The size and reach is one aspect, it's the age difference imo that might be a bigger deal. Not that 33 is ancient but Slava had a lot of kickboxing fights iirc and has a lof of overall mileage. Nolan is young with no mileage (and to be fair limited experience). My play is small, I think it has some value although i obviously won't be shocked if Slava wins.

 

[Thesnake101]

The thing keeping me off Thicknesse is just that we barely ever see Topuria and he gets to travel with his brother and train in top class fight camps constantly. Could come out looking completely different.

It's not like the odds are anywhere close though, if it was at evens, or even Topuria -180 or something like that I'd understand, but +350 for an undefeated guy vs a can crusher with a lot of inactivity on his side?

 

[Stat_Collector]

Nolan definitely a little sloppy, but he recovered fine. The size and reach is one aspect, it's the age difference imo that might be a bigger deal. Not that 33 is ancient but Slava had a lot of kickboxing fights iirc and has a lof of overall mileage. Nolan is young with no mileage (and to be fair limited experience). My play is small, I think it has some value although i obviously won't be shocked if Slava wins.

maybe a early round ko or bust, i think this is where i disagree most, i dont see Nolan as a good point fighter just because his chin can cause him to lose rounds and he throws naked kicks.

we'll see.

 

[mkess101]

maybe a early round ko or bust, i think this is where i disagree most, i dont see Nolan as a good point fighter just because his chin can cause him to lose rounds and he throws naked kicks.

we'll see.

Chin is definitely the one thing that worries me.

 

[EndlessCritic]

Someone want to explain the tumendemberel line? I thought he looked great his last fight against a very competent grappler.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Someone want to explain the tumendemberel line? I thought he looked great his last fight against a very competent grappler.

I taped it and Park looks much faster on the feet, much crisper whereas Tumen loads up a lot. If it hits the mat then Park is a really good back taker and Tumen tends to turtle to try and power up.

I went into it thinking Tumen might have value but ended up betting Park.

 

[sonhow]

Park seems to have his backers. Guy is bit on older side- 29-well not that old lol but 3 years older than Tum - looks like 15 and his win over Ross might be the easiest you can get in ufc.
Gonna look into this one myself.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I taped it and Park looks much faster on the feet, much crisper whereas Tumen loads up a lot. If it hits the mat then Park is a really good back taker and Tumen tends to turtle to try and power up.

I went into it thinking Tumen might have value but ended up betting Park.

Park has been knocked down by Choi and Topnoi. Tumendemberel has decent getups, and has a few subs himself so he has more familiarity with them than a usual striker. I don't think Park is a good favorite. He's also coming off a knee injury. It's on his IG where a teammate blindsided and fell on his back leg and injured his knee. I favor Park a little but I like Tumendemberel here as a sacrificial punt play. It only takes one knockdown in round 1 and a close round 2 match for this fight to go split decision win for Tumendemberel.

 

[jnes]

Nolan vs Borshchev u1.5 at -105 has caught my attention.

 

[BigSteve]

Nolan vs Borshchev u1.5 at -105 has caught my attention.

Line makes no sense. Recency bias because of the last few for both.

Nolan taking Reyes to a dec when everyone thought he should kill him. Yet on tape Reyes was quite durable and tough.

 

[jnes]

Line makes no sense. Recency bias because of the last few for both.

Nolan taking Reyes to a dec when everyone thought he should kill him. Yet on tape Reyes was quite durable and tough.

Ya we saw that with Borshchev against Llontop too who is also super durable. I definitely think Slava is one of the lower level guys in the division but his hands are pretty elite and dangerous. Both guys are super hittable and who knows how much longer Slava's chin can last after the insane amount of damage he's recently taken. We know Tom can be chinned.

 

[XociDe]

Strickland has a pretty nasty case of staph. I've been a Dricus doubter literally since the start of his UFC career but I think he's going to look levels above this time. Strickland has nothng to offer other than a jab, a teep, and an occasional overhand right. He is 100% on antibiotics so any cardio advantage is out the window.

 

[PuertoRican]

 

[Stat_Collector]

Sean looked pretty bad vs Costa

added staph infection in his arm, i played the dec line for dricus.

Took Tatiana over Weili, she was out grappled by Rose, and Xio Yan also swept her a few times and secured some CTRL time.

Jimmy Crute has a decent shot, Bellato had some sloppy defense and was in deep waters by Ihor. Crute also has a decent chin and recovery , ate some heavy shots from Menifield.

Rong over Steele. Rong also has a sturdy chin, more mma experience and younger. Gave Bahamondes a decent scrap.

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

Sean looked pretty bad vs Costa

added staph infection in his arm, i played the dec line for dricus.

Took Tatiana over Weili, she was out grappled by Rose, and Xio Yan also swept her a few times and secured some CTRL time.

Jimmy Crute has a decent shot, Bellato had some sloppy defense and was in deep waters by Ihor. Crute also has a decent chin and recovery , ate some heavy shots from Menifield.

Rong over Steele. Rong also has a sturdy chin, more mma experience and younger. Gave Bahamondes a decent scrap.

Are u betting Tafa?

Wouldn't staph make Strickland more likely to get finished?

 

[Guld]

Strickland has a pretty nasty case of staph. I've been a Dricus doubter literally since the start of his UFC career but I think he's going to look levels above this time. Strickland has nothng to offer other than a jab, a teep, and an occasional overhand right. He is 100% on antibiotics so any cardio advantage is out the window.

Yeah, I put even more on Dricus when I saw that staph.
Basically doubled down on my previous bet. My logic was that, even if I'm wrong, with the odds the way they are and the way Sean fights there should be plenty of time to hedge/cash out if Sean starts winning/keeping it close.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Are u betting Tafa?

Wouldn't staph make Strickland more likely to get finished?

i put Tafa ko1 in some small prop bets, but it's a low exposure bet. I'm aware of the risk with betting on him, he's a bottom totem pole fighter.

major leap, because Strickland did far more damage on the feet in their first fight , i'm expecting Dricus to get a ud over a split this time. I dont expect staph to be as massive a change

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

i put Tafa ko1 in some small prop bets, but it's a low exposure bet. I'm aware of the risk with betting on him, he's a bottom totem pole fighter.

major leap, because Strickland did far more damage on the feet in their first fight , i'm expecting Dricus to get a ud over a split this time. I dont expect staph to be as massive a change

I thought staph and antibiotics made people gas, although I only heard that from squares on the main board

 

[Stat_Collector]

I thought staph and antibiotics made people gas, although I only heard that from squares on the main board

you dont now how long he's had that infection for, he may be holding off meds till the fight is over.

Some fighters still win with staph, it's not a deal breaker, it's still a close fight.