UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2

[mkess101]

$ coming in on DDP and Suarez at the perfect time for me. Got bets in today on Strickland and Weili.

I thought Strickland won the first fight and I expect another very close one here. So getting Strickland at +162 a no brainer for me.
And I absolutely don't understand Suarez getting steamed, my Weili play is even bigger. I get the champ who has proven 5 round cardio, improved grappling, and far better striking vs a girl who's always hurt, has never even been in a 5 round fight, and is coming off a year and a half layoff...at evens??? Yeah Suarez has great wrestling. So yes, there's a ptv for her. But Weili has multiple ptv's. She has the power to land big early. She has shown she can win protracted wars. She's a slick grappler with good subs. I'm not sure if people are betting the undefeated record of Suarez or what, but I love it. I was gonna bet Weili at -160 and got her -115.

 

[Kazda1]

I'm all over Suarez here. I get the argument for multiple paths to victory but Suarez is longer with what looks to be excellent distance management. I dont think she has a shot at getting knocked out here. I have massive concerns about Weili showing grappling improvement over those who aren't in the same league as Suarez. Carla is as top notch as it gets for a women's division grappler and she didn't stand a chance against Suarez.

I know it's been some time ago but I see the grappling going a lot like how Rose did Zhang in the second fight. Suarez has too many ways to get this fight where she needs it and I see Weili not being able to do much as a result of fear of being on her back.

 

[mkess101]

I'm all over Suarez here. I get the argument for multiple paths to victory but Suarez is longer with what looks to be excellent distance management. I dont think she has a shot at getting knocked out here. I have massive concerns about Weili showing grappling improvement over those who aren't in the same league as Suarez. Carla is as top notch as it gets for a women's division grappler and she didn't stand a chance against Suarez.

I know it's been some time ago but I see the grappling going a lot like how Rose did Zhang in the second fight. Suarez has too many ways to get this fight where she needs it and I see Weili not being able to do much as a result of fear of being on her back.

Suarez is a good wrestler. And she's a got a really good guillotine. I don't see her distance management as special, I don't think she's really had to fight anyone with anywhere near the level striking that Weili has.
Suarez also has 2 fights in the past SIX YEARS. She's always hurt, iirc has had multiple surgeries...and again has never even been in a 5 round fight. And her cardio actually looked bad vs Nina Nunes. Went 0 for 4 in rd 3 on TD's, was getting beat up and lost the round. Maybe that was an outlier...but it damn sure wouldn't inspire faith to me that her 5 round cardio is top notch.

Weili has been active vs good competition for awhile now. Lemos isn't an amazing grappler obviously, but she looked good vs the best pure grappler in WMMA (Dern) one fight after being utterly dominated by Weili on the mat. I think the improvements with Weili are real.

If Suarez was +200, absolutely I could see an argument for her. Like I said the ptv is clear. But imo at current odds there's way too many reasons to play Weili.

 

[Kazda1]

Suarez is a good wrestler. And she's a got a really good guillotine. I don't see her distance management as special, I don't think she's really had to fight anyone with anywhere near the level striking that Weili has.
Suarez also has 2 fights in the past SIX YEARS. She's always hurt, iirc has had multiple surgeries...and again has never even been in a 5 round fight. And her cardio actually looked bad vs Nina Nunes. Went 0 for 4 in rd 3 on TD's, was getting beat up and lost the round. Maybe that was an outlier...but it damn sure wouldn't inspire faith to me that her 5 round cardio is top notch.

Weili has been active vs good competition for awhile now. Lemos isn't an amazing grappler obviously, but she looked good vs the best pure grappler in WMMA (Dern) one fight after being utterly dominated by Weili on the mat. I think the improvements with Weili are real.

If Suarez was +200, absolutely I could see an argument for her. Like I said the ptv is clear. But imo at current odds there's way too many reasons to play Weili.

Agree on the Nunes points. Looked like to me she had handily won the first 2 and had given up on doing anything else really as Nunes didn't really pose a threat to end the fight that she rightfully needed to do to win at that point. Contrast that with Weili who also couldn't get to her feet in a fight with a non grappler of sorts with Rose. She was tired in that one and I'd go as far as saying her being trapped on her back late lost her that one.

Suarez fights once every 5 years and it sucks for her should she win and be stripped due to inactivity. But when she does fight, it's a sight to behold. I get the argument for Weili though

 

[mkess101]

Agree on the Nunes points. Looked like to me she had handily won the first 2 and had given up on doing anything else really as Nunes didn't really pose a threat to end the fight that she rightfully needed to do to win at that point. Contrast that with Weili who also couldn't get to her feet in a fight with a non grappler of sorts with Rose. She was tired in that one and I'd go as far as saying her being trapped on her back late lost her that one.

Suarez fights once every 5 years and it sucks for her should she win and be stripped due to inactivity. But when she does fight, it's a sight to behold. I get the argument for Weili though

I think Rose is a better grappler than she's given credit for. She really came up as a grappler more than a striker. 4 of her first 6 wins in the UFC were by rnc, and she was taking every opponent down. She sort of did the reverse GSP where she went from grappler to striker. Her getting a narrow win partly due to grappling with Weili shouldn't have been a shock. I also think that fight is what lit a fire under Weili to become an elite grappler. And to push herself to become a true 5 round fighter. By all accounts she has an obsessive personality and will outwork everyone to fix any flaws.

Suarez looked dead tired in rd 3 vs Nunes imo. Didn't even seem like coasting, she really looked gassed. Again, that could well be a one-off so I don't wanna harp on it too much.

I was wrong about Shara/MVP so there's no way I'm gonna be wrong 2 cards in a row on a fight I've really broken down. Probably. Maybe. I hope LOL.

 

[Kazda1]

I think Rose is a better grappler than she's given credit for. She really came up as a grappler more than a striker. 4 of her first 6 wins in the UFC were by rnc, and she was taking every opponent down. She sort of did the reverse GSP where she went from grappler to striker. Her getting a narrow win partly due to grappling with Weili shouldn't have been a shock. I also think that fight is what lit a fire under Weili to become an elite grappler. And to push herself to become a true 5 round fighter. By all accounts she has an obsessive personality and will outwork everyone to fix any flaws.

Suarez looked dead tired in rd 3 vs Nunes imo. Didn't even seem like coasting, she really looked gassed. Again, that could well be a one-off so I don't wanna harp on it too much.

I was wrong about Shara/MVP so there's no way I'm gonna be wrong 2 cards in a row on a fight I've really broken down. Probably. Maybe. I hope LOL.

Well, I mean it's all hypothetical right? For all the tape we watch, and the fact that most fighters fight maybe twice a year - who knows what we will actually get come fight night? Add on to that like with most sports and betting, recency bias plays a huge part in our minds. Perhaps even more so with UFC because it's not like the NFL where we have a 17 game sample size every year - we have at most 2-3 recent fights from which to gage how someone's going to look given a particular match up. It's really cruel when you think about it.

With Bullet, I have a train of thought with undefeated fighters. I always ask myself, given how good they've looked, if they're not super imposing some elite skill that's rare, they all can lose at some point. Given that, in my humble opinion Khabib was the prototypical best of what was almost impossible to beat, no questions asked. Having elite grappling like that is a skill very few fighters we can count on one hand have possessed. I'm talking the GSP's and Merab's of the world (Merab is fairly close for argument sake). But speaking of, it would've been worthwhile to ask the question if Umar had anything on that level to stay undefeated against a fighter like Merab.


With Suarez, the obvious thing is, she has those qualities given she's a woman. Only a minute amount of these women are able to get a fight where it needs to be given their lack of strength in comparison to a man. If Suarez grabs ahold of Weili for long stretches of time, can we really be sure given the past that Weili is capable of escaping? I'm not so sure, thus I think Suarez is a generational talent for women's MMA.

 

[mkess101]

Well, I mean it's all hypothetical right? For all the tape we watch, and the fact that most fighters fight maybe twice a year - who knows what we will actually get come fight night? Add on to that like with most sports and betting, recency bias plays a huge part in our minds. Perhaps even more so with UFC because it's not like the NFL where we have a 17 game sample size every year - we have at most 2-3 recent fights from which to gage how someone's going to look given a particular match up. It's really cruel when you think about it.

With Bullet, I have a train of thought with undefeated fighters. I always ask myself, given how good they've looked, if they're not super imposing some elite skill that's rare, they all can lose at some point. Given that, in my humble opinion Khabib was the prototypical best of what was almost impossible to beat, no questions asked. Having elite grappling like that is a skill very few fighters we can count on one hand have possessed. I'm talking the GSP's and Merab's of the world (Merab is fairly close for argument sake). But speaking of, it would've been worthwhile to ask the question if Umar had anything on that level to stay undefeated against a fighter like Merab.


With Suarez, the obvious thing is, she has those qualities given she's a woman. Only a minute amount of these women are able to get a fight where it needs to be given their lack of strength in comparison to a man. If Suarez grabs ahold of Weili for long stretches of time, can we really be sure given the past that Weili is capable of escaping? I'm not so sure, thus I think Suarez is a generational talent for women's MMA.

We are gonna find out!

 

[Guld]

I'm leaning Weili as well. Same reasoning: far more proven.
However, the shift in odds might mean that there is something going on behind the scenes.

For the main, I'm leaning Dricus but it's a Strickland fight and I could totally see another silly split Dec incoming. Also, if I were to wear my tinfoil hat, I could try to play out the "Who does the UFC want as champ?" The answer is likely "Khamzat", and I think he has a better shot against Strickland than Dricus. So they might try to mix things up that way. It also sets up a Trilogy fight with Dricus down the road.

 

[mkess101]

I'm playing Nolan small vs Slava Claus. 9 years younger, faster, longer. I do think Slava is the more technical striker for sure but I'm gonna trust the youth and size as a dog here. That youth also in this case brings better cardio imo, Slava slowed vs Llontop and got hit a ton in rd 3. Nolan is a bit reckless, so Slava timing him and landing big wouldn't shock me. But with dog odds I'm going with the home kid.

 

[Siver!]

Thicknesse probably free money.

Might be my first UFC bet.

 

[wufabufa]

How is Topuria such a favorite, is it just because of his last name? His last three oponenets have a combined record of 10-41.......LOL WHAT IN THE ACTUAL FUCK.

 

[Siver!]

How is Topuria such a favorite, is it just because of his last name? His last three oponenets have a combined record of 10-41.......LOL WHAT IN THE ACTUAL FUCK.

"He MoVeS lIkE hIs BrOtHeR!"

He doesn't particularly, but he has a resemblance, has two punches and has no head movement at all.

He's fighting a guy who takes the sport seriously, is 7-0 as a pro, and backs it with an impressive ammy record.

He's getting finished, IF he makes weight.

 

[wufabufa]

"He MoVeS lIkE hIs BrOtHeR!"

He doesn't particularly, but he has a resemblance, has two punches and has no head movement at all.

He's fighting a guy who takes the sport seriously, is 7-0 as a pro, and backs it with an impressive ammy record.

He's getting finished.

Lol, the potential for some serious ments has me hyped.

 

[Siver!]

Lol, the potential for some serious ments has me hyped.

I just watched the early predictions on YouTube, I'm not sure they really did their homework.

Topuria is basically a wrestler with a bad gas tank and very limited striking. Colby is a grappler who is light years ahead on the mat. So naturally they just say "can't get the takedown" against a wrestler, but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Topuria actually gets the first takedown and therefore suicides himself, or if he actually fights with a gameplan, it's just going to end up getting there anyway. It won't be a normal, straight-on double leg of course, but it's MMA. They fall down.

Yeah, I'm betting on Thicknesse, it will be a finish, Topuria can't fight for 15 minutes so if Thicknesse doesn't Ninja Choke this guy in R1, he just RNC's him in R3 and I don't think it will be close.

 

[wufabufa]

I just watched the early predictions on YouTube, I'm not sure they really did their homework.

Topuria is basically a wrestler with a bad gas tank and very limited striking. Colby is a grappler who is light years ahead on the mat. So naturally they just say "can't get the takedown" against a wrestler, but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Topuria actually gets the first takedown and therefore suicides himself, or if he actually fights with a gameplan, it's just going to end up getting there anyway. It won't be a normal, straight-on double leg of course, but it's MMA. They fall down.

Yeah, I'm betting on Thicknesse, it will be a finish, Topuria can't fight for 15 minutes so if Thicknesse doesn't Ninja Choke this guy in R1, he just RNC's him in R3 and I don't think it will be close.

Pretty fair assessment. I picked Thicknesse late it the 2nd. I agree, there'll be a finish but I'm going with a TKO. Eventually the failed fatigue-ridden and telegraphed takedowns will end up with him pulling guard or turtling giving Thicknesse a chance to tee off from a dominant position.

 

[BigSteve]

60c of CLV on Suarez now. Not sure how I feel about it. Hate all the injury pull outs.

 

[Esaú Moreira]

Merab himself said Aleksander is better than him. Y'all biased coz Ilia ko'ed your boy hahaha

 

[Hellowhosthat]

The thing keeping me off Thicknesse is just that we barely ever see Topuria and he gets to travel with his brother and train in top class fight camps constantly. Could come out looking completely different.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I'm playing Nolan small vs Slava Claus. 9 years younger, faster, longer. I do think Slava is the more technical striker for sure but I'm gonna trust the youth and size as a dog here. That youth also in this case brings better cardio imo, Slava slowed vs Llontop and got hit a ton in rd 3. Nolan is a bit reckless, so Slava timing him and landing big wouldn't shock me. But with dog odds I'm going with the home kid.

Nolan's problem is that he doesn't have Llontop's chin which is solid.

If he can get koed by Motta , he can get chinned by Viacheslav. The Alex Reyes fight doesn't help, mainly because Reyes is regional level and endured Nolan's power. And in round 3 he allowed Reyes to back him up to the cage with his average pressure and ate a dozen strikes. Reyes does like to grapple a lot so maybe it played a role in him going the distance. So, perhaps Nolan can have a window between rounds 1-2 where he can chin Viacheslav, he did manage to ko Bogdan who has a sturdy chin so it's not impossible. I just think as the fight prolongs it favors Viacheslav because of his kickboxing background and his timing and volume is superior for 3 rounds, he's got better cardio imo. Even when dropped by Hooper, he endured a fk ton of ground and pound before he was tapped (or controversially tapped.)

I dont think Nolan will have the finishing capability when he had Reyes hurt several times and didn't put him away. It would have to be one of those homerun kos which we haven't seen anyone do to Viacheslav. If he got caught throwing a naked kick to Motta, high chance he could make the same mistake, as he is prone to throwing lots of telegraphed kicks and Viacheslav has decent check hooks from the pocket to chin him.

 

[mkess101]

Nolan's problem is that he doesn't have Llontop's chin which is solid.

If he can get koed by Motta , he can get chinned by Viacheslav. The Alex Reyes fight doesn't help, mainly because Reyes is regional level and endured Nolan's power. And in round 3 he allowed Reyes to back him up to the cage with his average pressure and ate a dozen strikes. Reyes does like to grapple a lot so maybe it played a role in him going the distance. So, perhaps Nolan can have a window between rounds 1-2 where he can chin Viacheslav, he did manage to ko Bogdan who has a sturdy chin so it's not impossible. I just think as the fight prolongs it favors Viacheslav because of his kickboxing background and his timing and volume is superior for 3 rounds, he's got better cardio imo. Even when dropped by Hooper, he endured a fk ton of ground and pound before he was tapped.

I dont think Nolan will have the finishing capability when he had Reyes hurt several times and didn't put him away. It would have to be one of those homerun kos which we haven't seen anyone do to Viacheslav. If he got caught throwing a naked kick to Motta, high chance he could make the same mistake, as he is prone to throwing lots of telegraphed kicks and Viacheslav has decent check hooks from the pocket to chin him.

I think Nolan's cardio is fine...it's Slava that I wonder about. The Llontop fight had a good pace, but not frenetic and Slava's hands dropped in rd 3 and he looked tired as hell.

I definitely don't consider Nolan any sort of lock or think he should be a big favorite. Historically though, way younger fighters with longer reach win a high % of the time in striker vs striker fights so taking Nolan as a dog makes sense to me.