UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2

[mkess101]

No?

Umar went OUT from -340 to -270 starting exactly 1 week from close.

This line has gone from -100 to -150 starting from exactly last week.

Umar was steamed to over -300 from like -200ish. There might have been some late $ on Merab when the line got really crazy, but prior to that Umar just kept getting bet.

Sharps don't just wait until a week before a fight. They'll bet any line they see as having value. So you can certainly think it's sharps hammering Tatiana now, but that doesn't make it so.

 

[mkess101]

Umar actually opened -170! And got steamed massively.

https://www.bestfightodds.com/fighters/Umar-Nurmagomedov-9365

This is NOT to say tonight will for sure mimic that fight etc. I do believe Suarez can win. And the odds obviously aren't as wide as Umar's were. But can we also not pretend there aren't SOME parallels?

Proven champ with a lot of 5 round experience vs undefeated darling of the MMA community. Challenger gets odds steamed by betting public. I mean...I don't feel like I'm saying anything crazy here.

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

Umar was steamed to over -300 from like -200ish. There might have been some late $ on Merab when the line got really crazy, but prior to that Umar just kept getting bet.

Sharps don't just wait until a week before a fight. They'll bet any line they see as having value. So you can certainly think it's sharps hammering Tatiana now, but that doesn't make it so.

Umar's were -240 one day after open and closed at -270.

The odds decreased by less 4%.

Suarez' odds came in from +125 one day after open to -150 now.

That is a decrease of 26%.

26% is a much bigger change than 4%.

Sharps are as active in the final week as they are when something opens, they are the overwhelming main driver of the odds moving.

Regardless, I don't even know what you're talking about, because the odds have come in at a steady rate since it open (Suarez), which means they have been hitting it at all times

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

Umar actually opened -170! And got steamed massively.

https://www.bestfightodds.com/fighters/Umar-Nurmagomedov-9365

This is NOT to say tonight will for sure mimic that fight etc. I do believe Suarez can win. And the odds obviously aren't as wide as Umar's were. But can we also not pretend there aren't SOME parallels?

Proven champ with a lot of 5 round experience vs undefeated darling of the MMA community. Challenger gets odds steamed by betting public. I mean...I don't feel like I'm saying anything crazy here.

That's DraftKing's bogus odds, BetOnline is where you should be looking.

Fight Odds | MMA Betting Odds, News and Analysis

Fight Odds is your #1 resource for MMA Betting. Stay on top with the latest MMA Betting News, Opening MMA Odds and MMA Betting Tools.

fightodds.io

 

[mkess101]

Umar's were -240 one day after open and closed at -270.

The odds decreased by less 4%.

Suarez' odds came in from +125 one day after open to -150 now.

That is a decrease of 26%.

26% is a much bigger change than 4%.

Sharps are as active in the final week as they are when something opens, they are the overwhelming main driver of the odds moving.

Regardless, I don't even know what you're talking about, because the odds have come in at a steady rate since it open (Suarez), which means they have been hitting it at all times

Umar opened at -170 and was steamed to well past -300 at one point. Meaning the same "they" were betting him as strongly as "they" have been betting Suarez to move the lines.

The point is that the line movement isn't an indication that "sharp" money is pushing the odds like your initial post I quoted. It sure as hell wasn't when it sent Umar from -170 to -325. Maybe it is tonight, but maybe not.

 

[mkess101]

That's DraftKing's bogus odds, BetOnline is where you should be looking.

Fight Odds | MMA Betting Odds, News and Analysis

Fight Odds is your #1 resource for MMA Betting. Stay on top with the latest MMA Betting News, Opening MMA Odds and MMA Betting Tools.

fightodds.io

Uhh...DK takes a helluva lot more action than BOL.

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

Umar opened at -170 and was steamed to well past -300 at one point. Meaning the same "they" were betting him as strongly as "they" have been betting Suarez to move the lines.

The point is that the line movement isn't an indication that "sharp" money is pushing the odds like your initial post I quoted. It sure as hell wasn't when it sent Umar from -170 to -325. Maybe it is tonight, but maybe not.

The line is opened by the bookmakers, and within the first 24 hours, the sharps shape the line to a more accurate number.

Using an opening line from a soft book that only allowed $100 bets is retarded.

There are lots of lines that "open" at -200, and then flip within 6 hours to +125.

You're just looking for things to make you seem right

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

Uhh...DK takes a helluva lot more action than BOL.

Yeah from squares.

All sharps are banned.

You're using a soft book and "opening line" for your reference point.

WRONG.

 

[mkess101]

The line is opened by the bookmakers, and within the first 24 hours, the sharps shape the line to a more accurate number.

Using an opening line from a soft book that only allowed $100 bets is retarded.

There are lots of lines that "open" at -200, and then flip within 6 hours to +125.

You're just looking for things to make you seem right

Wait LOL...so Umar opened anywhere from -170 to let's say -210 or so...and then the "sharps" moved it to a more "accurate" number of -270ish? And then it got bet even more to where he was well past -300, and then finally some sanity came in and he came back down to the more "accurate" -270 range? Do you think the "sharps" that had the line moving this way were on point and "sharp"? That "soft" line of -170 looks more accurate than how the "sharps" moved it in hindsight doesn't it?

There's a far bigger point you seem to be missing--line movement doesn't necessarily mean shit in predicting an outcome and asserting that "sharps" are moving the lines is conjecture.

 

[sonhow]

You know this Aussie feller thats fighting Jubli? Actually legit guy or DWCS bum that we pretty occasionally see coming from that show?

I thought Jubli looked pretty decent but broke in Breedens pressure. Now Mike aint anything special but dumb enough to employ that in your face and eat shots untill opponent tires out. I think theres some people Jubli could beat on the roster.

 

[mkess101]

Stop writing long ass paragraphs on sherdog u old man lmao. Surprise ur wife go chill w her LOL

I will when you surprise your boyfriend and do the same.

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

Wait LOL...so Umar opened anywhere from -170 to let's say -210 or so...and then the "sharps" moved it to a more "accurate" number of -270ish? And then it got bet even more to where he was well past -300, and then finally some sanity came in and he came back down to the more "accurate" -270 range? Do you think the "sharps" that had the line moving this way were on point and "sharp"? That "soft" line of -170 looks more accurate than how the "sharps" moved it in hindsight doesn't it?

There's a far bigger point you seem to be missing--line movement doesn't necessarily mean shit in predicting an outcome and asserting that "sharps" are moving the lines is conjecture.

That "sharp" money, amirite @DalchaLungiambula

I'm mostly messing with you FYI, we all get some right and some wrong. All love my dude.

Well this is 2 fights that the steam has not been accurate, but I have to assume it is accurate over the long term.

In other sports betting closing line is the gold standard, although I mentioned to Steve, that I have heard of a thing called 'closing line value curse' with MMA betting, where if you beat the closing line by a lot, the bet always loses.

Luckily I only bet $375 on Suarez - I tailed the chump Gianni the Greek who said she was the lock of the card.

My main bet was Tallison, I honestly never seen Suarez fight and never mentioned it cause it was a nothing bet for me.

Tallison Tiexiera was a litmus test for who is a sharp and who isn't.

What I can say about sharp bettors moving lines, is that on my Pinnacle account I am up over 40K on MMA, and every time I bet on something, the odds come in by 2.5%, but when I bet on sports that I am down on (some of them a lot), the odds never change.

Pinnacle is also linked to all the soft books; sometimes I have bet on something twice on Pinnacle and the odds have come in by 10 cents, and then looking on fightodds.io, the odds at all the other soft books come in within about 10 minutes.

I think that's how it works, the squares bets don't change the odds, unless maybe it is a gambling addict betting huge volume and they need to balance the book.

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

5U Texeira -150

Been given no choice but to act considering the odds.

Currently just under 20U of profit on tracked Sherdog betting.

A Texeira win will comfortably nudge me over

Really easy bet that cashed really easily too.



I have another bet for next week too, I know there have been people in my DMs trying to get my next picks, but they will have to wait

 

[Kazda1]

@mkess101

Good call on Zhang sir. All I can say lol

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

Give me Tafa at evens. Texiera is green for sure. Very unsafe fighter to pick. Tafa has at least more cage time. Even the fights he lost by decision he gained some veteran experience. Texeira is very inexperience going past round 1, besides the kick boxing match.

If he had Wilder's power or right hand , he would not have gone to decision with a can in that one kick boxing match, 9 mins with a guy who had been finished under 2 rounds before says he's got average power. Maybe he has solid power, but that isn't enough to ko a Polynesian fighter with a fat head like Tafa.

That's racist to say that Polynesian's have good chins.

Where did you get that idea from anyway.

Tuivasa's chin is average and Justin Tafa had already been KOed by Yorgan De Castro

 

[Kazda1]

@mkess101

Good call on Zhang sir. All I can say lol

 

[Stat_Collector]

Where did you get that idea from anyway.

Tuivasa's chin is average and Justin Tafa had already been KOed by Yorgan De Castro

He got elbowed in the nose. Winced and curled into a ball. not a chin issue. few fighters will fight through a painful injury. He’s a low level hw as i stated earlier lost next to nothing and still hedged a bet with Texeira. i’m one of the few posters on here who will switch their picks and admit when another poster has a point . that’s why i also hedged with Weili. I don’t get what’s the point of these next day gotcha post. Am i suppose to have plot armor and win all the time?