UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway

No chick fights. And awesome matchups. Besides the first fight, a lot of well matched technical fights.
 
I think Max will do better than Volk did, his boxing is cleaner where Volk is more of a kick boxer that mixes it all up and was coming off a brutal ko.

Max is live.
 
This is the best UFC card of the year, in terms of entertainment value.

That being said, most of the lines are already juiced, so I didn't bet on anything ahead of time today before I left Vegas. Can't wait for the card though. Hopefully something presents itself, whether it's MLs or props.
 
Carlos Leal stepped in to face Rinat. Think I'll finally fade Fakhretdinov, he's been looking bad since the Lee fight.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Yes.

Any info on the guy fighting Aslan?
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Rob as underdog in a 5 rounder is a must bet imo. If he gets it into championship rounds Chimaev will be a sitting duck, his gas tank is terrible. Easier said that done of course but Rob's TDD usually holds up ok and he'll mostly dominate standing

I dont know anything about the Aslan fight tbh
 
guesswhoseback said:
Ya aslan gonna knock him out
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That Aslan guy is nothing special.

I am going to say the other guy is the better athlete considering he managed to literally absorb zero significant strikes (albeit against a huge bum) and the Anderson Silva KO at the end, in the only recent fight of his that is available:



He is old AF for debuting fighter though.

I'll definitely be passing
 
Thesnake101 said:
Carlos Leal stepped in to face Rinat. Think I'll finally fade Fakhretdinov, he's been looking bad since the Lee fight.
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Just watched Leal vs Cooper and Chris Brown. His cardio is awful, he has that 1.5 rounds of gas and then starts to fade. he looked drained against Cooper and had his leg tangled briefly and was easily pressed against the cage on his knees. Brown also had him in the turtle position control after Leal botched a takedown. Rinat is a bit of a gasser himself, but seems to have a solid chin, and his grappling will likely make Leal drain faster because of the big muscles .
 
Stat_Collector said:
Just watched Leal vs Cooper and Chris Brown. His cardio is awful, he has that 1.5 rounds of gas and then starts to fade. he looked drained against Cooper and had his leg tangled briefly and was easily pressed against the cage on his knees. Brown also had him in the turtle position control after Leal botched a takedown. Rinat is a bit of a gasser himself, but seems to have a solid chin, and his grappling will likely make Leal drain faster because of the big muscles .
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Leal caught Cooper with a knee to the body in the third, after seeing how Rinat responded to a body shot from Zaleski I could see that spelling doom for him tbh.

Another thing to note is that Carlos was preparing for a fight this tuesday, so he's actually coming in with a full camp even if he wasn't preparing for Rinat.

I'm expecting Rinat to be a big favorite (north of -260), which I think gives pretty playable odds for Leal. If they're close then Rinat is the side though.
 
burge13 said:
Rob as underdog in a 5 rounder is a must bet imo. If he gets it into championship rounds Chimaev will be a sitting duck, his gas tank is terrible. Easier said that done of course but Rob's TDD usually holds up ok and he'll mostly dominate standing

I dont know anything about the Aslan fight tbh
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cause for concern is that Chimaev is fighting in his backyard, Rob could have bad jet lag, and considering he may have lost his chin against Dricus.

altho Rob has always had a questionable chin. Koed by Izzy, kd by Yoel 2x and dropped by a power jab from Dricus. Its not crazy to think rob can win tho. Khamzat struggled with Burns and was starting to lose to Usman in round 3, he may have lost to him in a 5 rounder.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Leal caught Cooper with a knee to the body in the third, after seeing how Rinat responded to a body shot from Zaleski I could see that spelling doom for him tbh.

Another thing to note is that Carlos was preparing for a fight this tuesday, so he's actually coming in with a full camp even if he wasn't preparing for Rinat.

I'm expecting Rinat to be a big favorite (north of -260), which I think gives pretty playable odds for Leal. If they're close then Rinat is the side though.
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Leal looks like a ko or bust match. There are some similar elements to the Hernandez/Perreira fight. Remember Hernandez got koed by Holland from a body shot and Michel had him briefly hurt. The problem with this is that its' not a common occurrence to rely on. Leal wins majority of his fights by ko, but they are usually in the 1st round. I think the best way to play Leal is ko1 prop bet or a potential under 1.5 to cover both fighters. That being said, you'd have to rely on Leal being the first man to knock out Rinat in 34 fights(including amateur.) I think a good hedge is Rinat round 3 or submission or sub 3 .
 
Stat_Collector said:
Leal looks like a ko or bust match. There are some similar elements to the Hernandez/Perreira fight. Remember Hernandez got koed by Holland from a body shot and Michel had him briefly hurt. The problem with this is that its' not a common occurrence to rely on. Leal wins majority of his fights by ko, but they are usually in the 1st round. I think the best way to play Leal is ko1 prop bet or a potential under 1.5 to cover both fighters. That being said, you'd have to rely on Leal being the first man to knock out Rinat in 34 fights(including amateur.) I think a good hedge is Rinat round 3 or submission or sub 3 .
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Carlos actually has more decision wins than Rinat, and he's only been subbed once ten years ago. At this point I seriously doubt Rinat will be scoring finishes over anyone who isn't an overmatched opponent (Lee), and I don't see Leal as that. Hell before his recent wins Leal actually had more decisions than KOs, and before coming to the UFC Rinat only had 2 decision wins as a pro.

If anything I lean towards Carlos getting better late simply because I haven't seen him crumble twice in a row like Rinat did in third rounds.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Carlos actually has more decision wins than Rinat, and he's only been subbed once ten years ago. At this point I seriously doubt Rinat will be scoring finishes over anyone who isn't an overmatched opponent (Lee), and I don't see Leal as that. Hell before his recent wins Leal actually had more decisions than KOs, and before coming to the UFC Rinat only had 2 decision wins as a pro.

If anything I lean towards Carlos getting better late simply because I haven't seen him crumble twice in a row like Rinat did in third rounds.
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Maybe it hits the scorecards and Leal could edge him, if he has a good early start and manages to out tag him in rnd 3.

I think they both look bad in round 3. if it hits the scorecards maybe we see another split dec like the Dalby fight, i'm leaning more towards a dec for Rinat but if Leal does win, the odds are nicer.
 
Hugo/Farid

I think this is a much closer fight than the odds suggest. Farid is going almost 60/40 with Blackshear in sig. strikes, and 50/50 with Taylor. farid is coming off a higher-level win, but Hugo has a better grappling game than Taylor, and he is a proficient striker, who can throw well time overhands and leg kicks. Not a confident fight, super risky as always betting against an undefeated guy. Farid keeps his hands low, and has at times resorted to running away when he gets pressured.

Edit: probably pass, Hugo has questionable striking defense the more i tape.

Rebecki/Oralbai

Had thought about playing Rebecki until i noticed he had a massive reach disadvantage at 8 inches. Oralbai is kind of a slow methodical striker, but he has a decent enough jab to keep Rebecki away and win from the outside, they probably both cancel each other out in the grappling.
 
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I think Topuria vs Holloway is great fight and Max odds do have value but ultimately Topuria walks out with a very close decision win.

Im rooting for Rob and if it goes deep Kham should gas out but somehow Im seeing the scenario in which Kham lands the first round ko. I dont see any way for Kham to win a 5 round decision with wrestling. He aint no Fluffy.

Ige loses a decision. Ive seen enough from Silva to be confident. Ige is one of the most consistent fighters on the roster. Theres clearly a line for him of level that he can and cant pass.

Ankalaev will finish Rakic and secure a title shot

Easy fight for Magomedov. Armen aint a wrestler - automatic pick for Shara Bullet.

Every one of these is a pick for the favorite if Im playing dogs Im probably taking Rob and on prelims Santos and Bruno F.
 
Stat_Collector said:
cause for concern is that Chimaev is fighting in his backyard, Rob could have bad jet lag, and considering he may have lost his chin against Dricus.

altho Rob has always had a questionable chin. Koed by Izzy, kd by Yoel 2x and dropped by a power jab from Dricus. Its not crazy to think rob can win tho. Khamzat struggled with Burns and was starting to lose to Usman in round 3, he may have lost to him in a 5 rounder.
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Khamzat was cooked vs Usman by the end of that fight. He absolutely would've lost a 5 rounder, probably gotten finished. That doesn't mean he for sure gasses here if it goes late but it can't make anyone confident in his ability to go past rd 3.

Khamzat early or Rob late/decision.
 
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