UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree

[dwightschrute111]

Am I crazy for betting Thompson by KO at a good price

Might be biased as he's my favourite fighter but Buckley is so easy to hit and has been KOd 4 times (albeit at a higher weight class)

 

[Georges Hefner]

If we are going by trends:

1. Last couple Utah PPV main events were won by underdogs

2. Last PPV main event was won by Merab (coached by John Wood)

This means Khalil will win because he’s
1. Underdog
2. Coached by John Wood

 

[Georges Hefner]

John Wood has potential to take down 2 of UFC biggest stars back to back PPV events

 

[KhaledDJ]

It literally only takes 10 minutes to watch round 2 & 3 of the Balchowicz fight. How lazy u have to be that you would rather type some nonsense about Onlyfans. What does OF have to do with Pereira, we are taking about fighting in altitude with a flu. I figured everybody here. You guys are lazy and don’t research. I did over 20 hours of research on this fight to know that Pereira fundamentals go out of the window when he’s tired. His chin is in the air. His hands are down

Where do you get this idea that Pereira has a flu or is sick?

 

[mkess101]

Khalil is 3-0 against Glory kickboxers. He beat Jacoby on damage and destroyed Saki with only 4 years of pro experience. This was before he moved to Bankgok and made improvements.

He’s the younger and fresher fighter. Alex turned 37 this year and reflexes is the first thing to go with aging strikers. Grapple-heavy fighters like Glover can achieve success at a later age.

Khalil is the most dangerous striker Pereira has faced in his MMA career. Adesanya is fundamentally better but Khalil is way more dangerous. He’s the most savage fighter in UFC because he fights like you owe him money. Khalil’s striking is better suited for MMA. Pereira started training at a late age like Benoit St Denis which is why his fundamentals are sloppy. He relies a lot on his power and size.

Styles make fights and Pereira was matched accordingly by matchmakers. Khalil had to learn on the job and pay his dues. He has way more experienced in MMA and UFC.

Hill was a small underdog even with the layoff and achilles injury. That’s because Pereira’s striking has flaws that Hill could’ve exploited. Jiri also was a small underdog despite already losing to Pereira and getting whooped by Rakic in the 1st round. Even with his horrible head/leg defense, people still thought Jiri could exploit Pereira. The oddsmakers didn’t see anything special in Pereira’s striking ability to make him such a big favorite.

Khalil is not scared of Pereira like Jiri, Hill, and Jan. He asked for this fight last year. He has nothing to lose and everything to gain. The pressure is all on Poatan. He said in the interview with Olivi that he’s in a great place mentally. The PED suspension only motivated him to win the title to clear up any dirt on his name. He also told Olivi that he was drilling a secret move that he told Rogan about. Think Aldo-McGregor, Jiri-Poatan 2, Askren-Maia, Usman-Edwards II. They all drilled a secret move before the fight. Rogan also invited him to his podcast after the Anders fight. Rogan doesn’t invite prelim fighters to his podcast unless they are a special talent.

Rountree told Olivi that he made a promise to his coach years ago that he would become a UFC champion. Nobody expected Rountree to ever be a title challenger. So maybe his destiny is written in the stars.

He told Olivi that he lost to Walker because he didn’t know Muay Thai at the time and wasn’t comfortable in the clinch. He lost to Prachnio because he was depressed and barely trained. All his other losses are to grapplers. He has never been KO’d with punches which is Pereira’s biggest weapon: the left hook.

UFC wants Khalil to win because it legitimatizes TUF. They did something similar with Forrest. This is why they gave him a title shot over Ankalaev who has a 10 fight win streak (not counting NC and draw). Ankalaev has Dagestani privilege which gets him special favors from the UFC. They instead rewarded the title shot to a fighter who failed a drug test and pulled out of a N1 contender matchup. The UFC wants an English speaking champion who can promote and sell fights. Pereira became a star because of Adesanya, not because of his personality.

I'm not saying Khalil can't win but if you think the UFC "wants" Khalil to win you're so beyond lost there's no coming back.

They just saw one of their big draws lose. Poatan is a guy they can build ppv's around as long as he's winning. Khalil never will be that. The UFC absolutely doesn't want Perreira losing here.

 

[Thesnake101]

I'm not saying Khalil can't win but if you think the UFC "wants" Khalil to win you're so beyond lost there's no coming back.

They just saw one of their big draws lose. Poatan is a guy they can build ppv's around as long as he's winning. Khalil never will be that. The UFC absolutely doesn't want Perreira losing here.

The split to Jacoby was only two years ago and 90% of media scores had that for Jacoby.

if you watch the way he gets koed , it looks very low level. He got koed out by a very predictable elbow in the clinch, leaving his chin exposed.

He got taken down by Ion and was ground and pounded easily and the ref came in to safe him, which shows that he has a weak recovery and heart/grind.

If a guy was a bum 10 years ago it means his trajectory and ceiling is lower at his prime level.

Fellas, I know it's tradition at this point but you do not have to engage with trolls or even acknowledge them.

Having gotten that out of the way: Carla Esparza 69u ($6.99) bet ez money. Tecia is spiraling, two split decision losses in a row to grapplers and now has to fight a strong wrestler who is well liked by judges (5-3 in majority/split decisions) and already beat her once.

 

[mkess101]

Fight before last Bautista should've lost to Damon Blackshear imo. Maybe not a true "robbery", but not the correct decision. And there's a question why people would bet Aldo as a dog? Uhh, what?

 

[guesswhoseback]

Fellas, I know it's tradition at this point but you do not have to engage with trolls or even acknowledge them.

Having gotten that out of the way: Carla Esparza 69u ($6.99) bet ez money. Tecia is spiraling, two split decision losses in a row to grapplers and now has to fight a strong wrestler who is well liked by judges (5-3 in majority/split decisions) and already beat her once.

That's the same thing I tell everyone stop responding to the idiot they bitch and moan about the clown but keep responding to his posts

 

[Rhood]

Fight before last Bautista should've lost to Damon Blackshear imo. Maybe not a true "robbery", but not the correct decision. And there's a question why people would bet Aldo as a dog? Uhh, what?

Apparently many MMA reporters are boosting elevation fighters, because of Utah.
They are expecting 75% of card to gas out and lose unexpectedly.
It's all over the Twitter feed.

I never understood why Pena (whom rocked Nunes several times) is the underdog and expected to lose to Pennington. Pennington looked horrible in her last fight and her opponent was nowhere near the same caliber as Amanda Nunes.
I really don't get it.

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

Fellas, I know it's tradition at this point but you do not have to engage with trolls or even acknowledge them.

Having gotten that out of the way: Carla Esparza 69u ($6.99) bet ez money. Tecia is spiraling, two split decision losses in a row to grapplers and now has to fight a strong wrestler who is well liked by judges (5-3 in majority/split decisions) and already beat her once.

Trolls?

You're betting 69U ($6.99) on something.

Who the hell bets 69U on something, and who lands on $6.99 as a staking amount?

We're trolls though buddeh.

People agreeing with your post shows how cooked this place is.

Me and George are professional sports bettors, and yet if you read this thread as an outsider you'd be forgiven for thinking it was the other way around .

You bet on Edgar Chairez even after I DMed you and told you Josh Van was going to win.

You completely ignored the advice of someone who moves lines and bet it anyway

 

[Thesnake101]

Trolls?

You're betting 69U ($6.99) on something.

Who the hell bets 69U on something, and who lands on $6.99 as a staking amount?

We're trolls though buddeh.

People agreeing with your post shows how cooked this place is.

Me and George are professional sports bettors, and yet if you read this thread as an outsider you'd be forgiven for thinking it was the other way around .

You bet on Edgar Chairez even after I DMed you and told you Josh Van was going to win.

You completely ignored the advice of someone who moves lines and bet it anyway

Didn't you put an obscene amount of cash on Edmen over GM3?

PS: Are you autistic? Yes or no?

 

[Thesnake101]

Apparently many MMA reporters are boosting elevation fighters, because of Utah.
They are expecting 75% of card to gas out and lose unexpectedly.
It's all over the Twitter feed.

I never understood why Pena (whom rocked Nunes several times) is the underdog and expected to lose to Pennington. Pennington looked horrible in her last fight and her opponent was nowhere near the same caliber as Amanda Nunes.
I really don't get it.

2 years off for Peña, Raquel is also on a 6-fight streak so I imagine that influences the line as well.

I feel like this card will have their fair amount of dogs barking, just a matter of choosing them well.

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

Didn't you put an obscene amount of cash on Edmen over GM3?

PS: Are you autistic? Yes or no?

Nah, I put $6.99

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

I'm 6-1 with tracked betting on here.

I already told George in chat that my model malfunctioned when I bet Edmen

 

[MidgardSerpent]

That's the same thing I tell everyone stop responding to the idiot they bitch and moan about the clown but keep responding to his posts

It's a catch-22 situation. There aren't that many posters left, so if you've got two troll accounts becoming a big presence, it's kind of hard to ignore. Especially if they obfuscate matters by dropping ragebait breadcrumbs in between seemingly regular comments (Khalil odds of winning improving because he 'promised' his coach).

Reminds me of Dead Internet theory, a black hole of nothingness slowly dragging people in, by bickering on social media with bots or trolls with no genuine information being exchanged anymore.

 

[Georges Hefner]

I'm not saying Khalil can't win but if you think the UFC "wants" Khalil to win you're so beyond lost there's no coming back.

They just saw one of their big draws lose. Poatan is a guy they can build ppv's around as long as he's winning. Khalil never will be that. The UFC absolutely doesn't want Perreira losing here.

Your argument is that if Pereira loses, the UFC wont be able to build a PPV around him?

If Pereira loses, they will give him an immediate rematch like they did to Izzy.

What makes you think the rematch will be on ESPN+ rather than a PPV?

 

[Georges Hefner]

The UFC wants Poatan to lose 100%. if you disagree then you don’t understand how their business model works.

Here’s a classic example (McGregor vs Diaz)
Their biggest draw lost but the UFC won. Had McGregor won, the UFC actually would've lost money in the end.

1. The rematch breaks PPV record
2. They have new PPV star (Nate Diaz)

This isn’t boxing. This is MMA. Fighters can lose and it’s not a big deal. Rivalries sell. Not winning streaks.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Fellas, I know it's tradition at this point but you do not have to engage with trolls or even acknowledge them.

Having gotten that out of the way: Carla Esparza 69u ($6.99) bet ez money. Tecia is spiraling, two split decision losses in a row to grapplers and now has to fight a strong wrestler who is well liked by judges (5-3 in majority/split decisions) and already beat her once.

Wait…. You actually think I’m trolling by saying UFC wants Khalil to win?

Thats probably why your unit size is 10 cents after 10 years.

You think everything is a joke. But it’s not. Not everything is a game

Call me and @DalchaLungiambula troll all you want. But eventually we are all going to move on from sports betting to something bigger. While you will still be betting 10 cent unit sizes

 

[Georges Hefner]

It's a catch-22 situation. There aren't that many posters left, so if you've got two troll accounts becoming a big presence, it's kind of hard to ignore. Especially if they obfuscate matters by dropping ragebait breadcrumbs in between seemingly regular comments (Khalil odds of winning improving because he 'promised' his coach).

Reminds me of Dead Internet theory, a black hole of nothingness slowly dragging people in, by bickering on social media with bots or trolls with no genuine information being exchanged anymore.

He did promise his coach. Watch the Olivi interview.

Idk if u know but motivation is one of the most important aspects of capping a fight and life in general

GSP even said fighting is 90% mental

Im sorry if you took that as trolling. But I didn’t even see where the humor was intended?

 

[crystal_octahedron]

I just registered to say, Georges Hefner - as annoying as he might appear to most - may just be the sharpest person in this karate forum.

Yes, the UFC benefits more from Alex losing. I am not paying for PPVs when I know exactly what's going to happen. I've seen this movie before, left hook, dead. wow, so exciting.
I bet none of you professional bettors even align the TKO stock movements to titles changing hands to see who the real A side is. Everyone thought O'Malley was the the star UFC was pushing, guess what, TKO stock increased after Merab won the belt.

You need to treasure this person and be thankful he is sharing his picks with you while he could just quietly make bank.

Casuals and the unlettered may not understand what motivation or will-to-win may mean. Maybe research how Tyson promised Cus certain things, maybe learn more about how Cus used to hypnotize Tyson often, sometimes twice a day. Maybe learn about the 80/20 theory which claims fighting being 80% mental and only 20% physical. If there is a will, there is a way. If Khalil wants to win, he will win, simple as that.

I will drive it even further, if Mariya Agapova wants to, she walks through Alex Pereira like DDP ran through Whittaker and Adesanya (she can't run, has bad knees).

A lot of takes here are just the hivemind making up reasons to justify picking a fav or to side with the majority with no real argumentation behind them. You all seem to be citing certain criteria to fade a fighter, but you will somehow ignore the same criteria when it works for an unpopular pick - or God forbid, an underdog that's not the public lean.

Sure, George Hefner may have some autism, they may come off as abrasive and arrogant - guess what, they are not suffering from autism, they are thriving because of it.

Anyways, enough glazing.

Ask yourself this week:

-Am I betting Aldo because I missed the window last time when he fought in Rio?
-Am I picking Almeida because he trains with so and so? would I fade any other 36 yo against any other 28 yo who has more experience with these odds?
-If Holland grappled, what would Thompson's record for last 5 be right now?
-Do I rate Hubbard highly, or is this a fade on Hernandez?
-What if Bautista picks Aldo up, and puts him on the mat early in any round?
-If Holm had not taken it to the mat, would I bet Kayla to win inside the distance against Ketlen? Have I seen the Aspen Ladd fight?
-How did Alex look last time in Salt Lake City?
-Why did they speedrun Alex's stock?
-If Jon Jones is the GOAT, then why would Dana want Alex to tie with or even exceed Jones' LHW title defense record?
-Who got KO'd more recently, Alex or Khalil?
-Has Alex beat Anthony Smith, who is by far one of the most well rounded and most intelligent fighter in the division?
-What if Alex doesn't go on his shield, or lose via some fluke injury and has to face Ankalaev? What happens when Ankalaev embarrasses Alex like Merab did to Sean, or like Belal did to Leon? How would this affect Alex's stock compared to him losing now, changing divisions (he already has called out DDP) and retiring soon after as some sort of GOAT?
-Would I be betting a 37 yo who got KO'd more recently than the 33 yo he is facing with these lines if it wasn't for the name value?
-Am I an NPC who chants cHaMa or wear a pOaTaN shirt? Why am I being emotional reading these lines?
-Should I see a doctor regarding my hormone levels, why do I have these intense feelings when I read about other people's valid opinions, especially considering they have a tendency to be right when I feel the most triggered.
-What's common when I consider the public perception in their times towards these public figures: Jesus, Galilei, Tesla, Einstein, Georges Hefner?

Nobody can predict fights the way people try to predict them, it is not some fantasy game where you can play some scenarios out with action figures. When it happens like you thought it would, trust me, it is just luck. More often than not, someone just wins, because they win. Wrestlers can just end up striking, chinny people can just end up surviving, OSP can just bust your surefire bets, Belal can spike Leon on his head, Duben can KO Clark.

Best of luck to everyone, but you shan't need it if you really think about it, it worth it.