UFC 303 - Pereira vs. Procházka II (Jun 29th) @ Las Vegas

[EndlessCritic]

I'm looking at the over, getting finished by Taira and Nascimiento isn't a bad look given how good each guy is imo. Carlos is usually a pretty game, well put together guy, so I think it hits the scorecards more often than not.

Feel tempted to fade Simon at -230 rn. Sure, his wrestling should be good enough to control Vinicius, but if it isn't? I think he gets hurt badly on the feet.

I'm on the over as well for Hernandez/Tsuruya.

I bet lok dog just because he's an absolute finisher. The notion of fading Simon is silly, as he's an elite guy. Vinicius didn't look great in his UFC debut -- until he did.

 

[Thesnake101]

I'm on the over as well for Hernandez/Tsuruya.

I bet lok dog just because he's an absolute finisher. The notion of fading Simon is silly, as he's an elite guy. Vinicius didn't look great in his UFC debut -- until he did.

Ricky's good, but he's gotten absolutely dismantled in his last two. While there's no doubt in my mind that Yadong worked his ass off to improve his wrestling since the Cody draw, Ricky getting his takedowns completely shut down by a Bautista that was coming over arguably losing to short-notice Blackshear was a bad look to me.

Obviously Yadong and Mario are great prospects, the former already being a full-fledged contender while the latter is on the doorstep of being there, but those are still matchups where I expected Ricky to at least have his moments and not look like he was constantly a step behind. Maybe I'm being too harsh on him though.

Still, I don't think his current form justifies his current line.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Any reason not to go heavy on MAB? He lands a lot of strikes and Pyfer just got a bit exposed.

Nah he’s not it

The only underdog I like on this card is Waterson and MVP.

 

[StewDogg11]

Nah he’s not it

The only underdog I like on this card is Waterson and MVP.

What about Kevin Swanson? I hold your opinion in high regard and am wanting to know if my read is correct.

 

[Georges Hefner]

What about Kevin Swanson? I hold your opinion in high regard and am wanting to know if my read is correct.

I got Fili by decision. Swanson is too old.

If you’re looking for a good underdog at +200, then my personal recommendation is Vinicius Oliveira. I will be betting him myself. He’s a much better bet than Kevin.

 

[Thesnake101]

Nah he’s not it

The only underdog I like on this card is Waterson and MVP.

Waterson is too washed and was prone to getting into precarious positions on the mat even in her prime. Can't see a world where Gillian doesn't get on top and mauls her.

 

[EndlessCritic]

Nah he’s not it

The only underdog I like on this card is Waterson and MVP.

I'm going to keep beating this dead horse, but anyone not betting Hernandez at +375 is a square. Hernandez looked very good against Barez/Altimirano/Bondar.

Tsuruya is completely unproven, and simply looked bad against Climaco.

 

[guesswhoseback]

Oliveria-KO3(UN 2.5-125)
Tsuyra-KO2(NO bet)
Buday-Dec(OV 2.5-180)
Robertson-SUB2(Robertson-185)
Talbott-KO2(UN 1.5+165)
Silva-Dec(Silva-110)
Swanson-Dec(Ov 2.5+105)
Pfyer-KO2(UN 2.5-145)
Garry-Dec(Garry-155)
Chiasson-Dec(Chiasson-105)
Doldize-KO2(Doldize-136)
Lopez-KO2(Lopez-140)
Perreria-KO3(Perreria-140)

 

[Georges Hefner]

I'm going to keep beating this dead horse, but anyone not betting Hernandez at +375 is a square. Hernandez looked very good against Barez/Altimirano/Bondar.

Tsuruya is completely unproven, and simply looked bad against Climaco.

It’s a dead horse for a reason. Hernandez doesn’t do well against undefeated young Chinese fighters.

U went 1/3 on ur dog picks last week. U never revealed ur stake. So that could be a loss/break even for all we know.

Hernandez is a bigger underdog than Wilson. I even said those odds are off. These odds however are accurate. The Chinese is a great parlay piece

 

[Georges Hefner]

Waterson is too washed and was prone to getting into precarious positions on the mat even in her prime. Can't see a world where Gillian doesn't get on top and mauls her.

Waterson has good takedown defense. She keeps it standing and outstrikes Gilian

 

[Serge421]

Waterson has good takedown defense. She keeps it standing and outstrikes Gilian

Waterson has good takedown defense. She keeps it standing and outstrikes Gilian

But she's 37 years old and has lost 4 in a row.

 

[StewDogg11]

But she's 37 years old and has lost 4 in a row.

She’s more washed to me than Swanson who he cited as being “old” as the reason for not playing him. Even though Fili is 34 himself and has a ton of fight miles on him.

 

[Georges Hefner]

But she's 37 years old and has lost 4 in a row.

1 of those losses was a robbery. 2 of those losses were to the same girl. The other was to top contender.

Waterson has some grappling. Robertson has no striking. I’m thinking Waterson by decision

 

[Wagner Azevedo]

It’s a dead horse for a reason. Hernandez doesn’t do well against undefeated young Chinese fighters.

Tsuruya is japanese, dude.

 

[sonhow]

Michelle seems to be in great shape at least.
(She always is but took this as excuse to post)

 

[Georges Hefner]

She’s more washed to me than Swanson who he cited as being “old” as the reason for not playing him. Even though Fili is 34 himself and has a ton of fight miles on him.

He had 42 fights. He’s been in more wars than any other featherweight. Michele has those Asian genes as well. I would rather tell you the bitter truth than a sweet lie. The bitter truth is it’s a horrible bet.

 

[StewDogg11]

He had 42 fights. He’s been in more wars than any other featherweight. Michele has those Asian genes as well. I would rather tell you the bitter truth than a sweet lie. The bitter truth is it’s a horrible bet.

Fili has 35 fights…and was brutally knocked out in 2 of his last 5.

 

[Spath]

Michelle seems to be in great shape at least.
(She always is but took this as excuse to post)

She’s also 0-4 both in her last 4 fights and the last 3 years. Her last victory was a split dec vs what’s-her-face, in 2020.



I don’t know how she’s still signed. Isn’t she like 1-6 in her last 7? Approaching BJ Penn territory here… Or Tony Ferguson. Just not getting finished left and right!

 

[Serge421]

She’s more washed to me than Swanson who he cited as being “old” as the reason for not playing him. Even though Fili is 34 himself and has a ton of fight miles on him.

To me Gillian is the biggest lock on this card, although I was watching the UFCs betting show on YouTube and the professional gambling expert guy said his lock was Waterson!

 

[sonhow]

To me Gillian is the biggest lock on this card, although I was watching the UFCs betting show on YouTube and the professional gambling expert guy said his lock was Waterson!

Was it this guy?