UFC 303 - Pereira vs. Procházka II (Jun 29th) @ Las Vegas

[sonhow]

She’s also 0-4 both in her last 4 fights and the last 3 years. Her last victory was a split dec vs what’s-her-face, in 2020.



I don’t know how she’s still signed. Isn’t she like 1-6 in her last 7? Approaching BJ Penn territory here… Or Tony Ferguson. Just not getting finished left and right!

She has certain assets and to be fair she is losing to good girls. I think she kinda beat Carla just before Carla went on to win the title.
Not sure if I play either sides here. Gillian needs takedowns but one area where Michelle hasnt shown much weakness is wrestling defense.

 

[Bakayoko]

There's only two locks on this card and one of them is Tallbot.

 

['Suga Daddy']

Can anyone tell me why Smith is a dog? Dudes been preparing longer, is gritty as all hell and will likely just outpoint slow and plodding Dolidze for 3 rounds

 

[Psychojoe86]

I'm on the over as well for Hernandez/Tsuruya.

I bet lok dog just because he's an absolute finisher. The notion of fading Simon is silly, as he's an elite guy. Vinicius didn't look great in his UFC debut -- until he did.

the over is still gonna be valuable with the new gloves, particularly the lower weight classes

 

[Psychojoe86]

Can anyone tell me why Smith is a dog? Dudes been preparing longer, is gritty as all hell and will likely just outpoint slow and plodding Dolidze for 3 rounds

agreed. i like smith here. Dolidze is unlikely to improve with the weightclass jump.

who knows for sure though. it's worked well for michel pereira so far.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Anyone else think Alex was gifted a win by Mark Goddard?

Jiri was landing and backing Alex into a corner.

Alex strikes me as an inconsistent fighter. he has off nights like Bruno and Izzy 2 and his wins sometimes come from a spur of the moment where he is losing and then hits that left hook to bails him out. Even the Jan fight was close.

I think Jiri learned what not to do. Maybe worked on his entries, and will avoid the close quarters. He even ate a left hook well from Alex and did not wobble. I'm getting that itch, like something tells me Alex will be exposed here.

This will set up Jiri to fight Ankalaev. Like the fight between two long standing mma guys, as suppose to the newcomer kickboxer guy fighting everyone.

 

[Guld]

Anyone else think Alex was gifted a win by Mark Goddard?

Jiri was landing and backing Alex into a corner.

Alex strikes me as an inconsistent fighter. he has off nights like Bruno and Izzy 2 and his wins sometimes come from a spur of the moment where he is losing and then hits that left hook to bails him out. Even the Jan fight was close.

I think Jiri learned what not to do. Maybe worked on his entries, and will avoid the close quarters. He even ate a left hook well from Alex and did not wobble. I'm getting that itch, like something tells me Alex will be exposed here.

This will set up Jiri to fight Ankalaev. Like the fight between two long standing mma guys, as suppose to the newcomer kickboxer guy fighting everyone.

It definitely has that vibe for sure.
Jiri looked noticeably weaker in that fight than he did in fights previous (and after).
He also recognizes and admits (now) that he can't take clean shots from Alex.
He has indicated that he will come in with a "different plan" which I imagine is to grapple more. As a reminder, Izzy outgrappled Alex, and Jiri held his own and ultimately subbed Glover.
Many fighters have commented on how Alex will be exposed one day, and consider him somewhat one dimensional/limited.
So yeah, I think that there is a very real possibility that Jiri not only wins, but makes it look easy.
With that being said, Alex's leg kicks will probably be landing frequently (regardless of Jiri's style/approach), and it won't take too many left hooks for him to replicate their first matchup ending either.

 

[Guld]

Can anyone tell me why Smith is a dog? Dudes been preparing longer, is gritty as all hell and will likely just outpoint slow and plodding Dolidze for 3 rounds

I think Smith should be the fav. This will likely be "another day at the office" for him.

 

[Stat_Collector]

It definitely has that vibe for sure.
Jiri looked noticeably weaker in that fight than he did in fights previous (and after).
He also recognizes and admits (now) that he can't take clean shots from Alex.
He has indicated that he will come in with a "different plan" which I imagine is to grapple more. As a reminder, Izzy outgrappled Alex, and Jiri held his own and ultimately subbed Glover.
Many fighters have commented on how Alex will be exposed one day, and consider him somewhat one dimensional/limited.
So yeah, I think that there is a very real possibility that Jiri not only wins, but makes it look easy.
With that being said, Alex's leg kicks will probably be landing frequently (regardless of Jiri's style/approach), and it won't take too many left hooks for him to replicate their first matchup ending either.

no one really wants to get hit by Alex, but from what i saw, he took his licks better than others. The elbows to the temple stunned him momentarily and i believe he would have recovered if Goddard didn’t step in prematurely. if nothing weird happens in this fight i think Jiri wins it, potentially by ko.

 

[Spath]

no one really wants to get hit by Alex, but from what i saw, he took his licks better than others. The elbows to the temple stunned him momentarily and i believe he would have recovered if Goddard didn’t step in prematurely. if nothing weird happens in this fight i think Jiri wins it, potentially by ko.

The guy went out, crumbled down and woke up while Poatan was in full mount. Do you really think the ref should’ve let it play out? Because it wouldn’t have changed the outcome. Fine stoppage.

 

[mkess101]

I think Smith should be the fav. This will likely be "another day at the office" for him.

Smith is a guy I wrote off too soon I think and I like him in this spot. My lone hesitation is that he really trusts his grappling, and Dolidze imo is dangerous on the mat. The way he utterly tied up Hermannson (a very capable grappler) and was able to tee off unanswered for the stoppage was impressive. Smith is no joke on the ground either, but imo there's much more danger there for him and I don't see him trying to avoid a ground fight if Dolidze wants one. Dolidze is moving up in weight which imo favors Smith in the grappling though. (Smith was once an oversized MW but is absolutely a true LHW and has been for awhile, whereas I'm not sure how well Dolidze will carry the extra weight).

If the fight stays standing I think Smith can win simply by being a bit sharper and more active. He can win a grappling heavy fight too, but that's more dicey.

 

[mkess101]

no one really wants to get hit by Alex, but from what i saw, he took his licks better than others. The elbows to the temple stunned him momentarily and i believe he would have recovered if Goddard didn’t step in prematurely. if nothing weird happens in this fight i think Jiri wins it, potentially by ko.

Man...Jiri was rocked badly by Rakic in rd 1 in his last fight and was almost finished. Jiri is tough as hell and is live, but he's also reckless at times and Poatan's power isn't in question. And unlike other guys he generates a ton of power with no windup, he's a special striker. Watch how short the punches are that wrecked Strickland, there are VERY few guy on earth capable of that.

Again, Jiri can win and if he mixes grappling and keeps Perreira guessing he can land big shots like you said and definitely find a finish of his own. But he's in danger every second in that cage that Alex isn't on his back.

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

Smith is a guy I wrote off too soon I think and I like him in this spot. My lone hesitation is that he really trusts his grappling, and Dolidze imo is dangerous on the mat. The way he utterly tied up Hermannson (a very capable grappler) and was able to tee off unanswered for the stoppage was impressive. Smith is no joke on the ground either, but imo there's much more danger there for him and I don't see him trying to avoid a ground fight if Dolidze wants one. Dolidze is moving up in weight which imo favors Smith in the grappling though. (Smith was once an oversized MW but is absolutely a true LHW and has been for awhile, whereas I'm not sure how well Dolidze will carry the extra weight).

If the fight stays standing I think Smith can win simply by being a bit sharper and more active. He can win a grappling heavy fight too, but that's more dicey.

Dolidze started his career at heavyweight and has fought the majority of his career at light heavyweight.

I don't see Smith having much of strength advantage at all.

Dolidze has easily overpowered everyone at MW.

 

[svmr_db]

Ortega is the one who requested the change of weight class, Lopes bettors beware.

 

[Guld]

Ortega is the one who requested the change of weight class, Lopes bettors beware.

You think Lopes bettors would be the ones to be concerned?
Wouldn't the Ortega bettors be concerned with the fact that Ortega couldn't make weight?

 

[Serge421]

I wonder how much weight Lopes cut up until he heard the news

 

[MetaIIica]

Im taking Jiri, Diego, MVP.

If Jiri learned to avoid the leg kicks he will have a much better chance, he was touching Perieras chin at ease when Periera was on the back foot, the leg kicks forced Jiri to rush things, and also implementing wrestling which he did in the first fight will put the fight in Jiris odds.

Diego Lopez will beat Ortega standing, and Ortega is injury prone, imo Ortegas legitimate chance would be a takedown transitioning to a submission, against a dangerous submission artist in Diego, whereas Diego can finish it standing and on the ground.

MVP has longer reach, crazy resume, lots of experience, and hes definitely faster than Ian Garry. Ian got dropped by Kenan Song, MVP should easily reach Garrys chin. That Holland fight was brutal he's so crafty.

LMK if you think im wrong on anything

 

[MetaIIica]

Man...Jiri was rocked badly by Rakic in rd 1 in his last fight and was almost finished. Jiri is tough as hell and is live, but he's also reckless at times and Poatan's power isn't in question. And unlike other guys he generates a ton of power with no windup, he's a special striker. Watch how short the punches are that wrecked Strickland, there are VERY few guy on earth capable of that.

Again, Jiri can win and if he mixes grappling and keeps Perreira guessing he can land big shots like you said and definitely find a finish of his own. But he's in danger every second in that cage that Alex isn't on his back.

Rakic closes distance and threw haymakers and wild 1-2s, Periera jabs from a distance and waits to counter. He does not rush in like Rakic. Periera would have to counter Jiri in the pocket, like he did before.

 

[mkess101]

Rakic closes distance and threw haymakers and wild 1-2s, Periera jabs from a distance and waits to counter. He does not rush in like Rakic. Periera would have to counter Jiri in the pocket, like he did before.

Mostly true but look at how Jiri often fights. He will be aggressive and give opportunities to counter. It's who he is.

 

[Spath]

Rakic closes distance and threw haymakers and wild 1-2s, Periera jabs from a distance and waits to counter. He does not rush in like Rakic. Periera would have to counter Jiri in the pocket, like he did before.

Pereira also has kicks which he uses extremely well. Even a elite kickboxer like Adesanya got hurt quickly by those low kicks. Not telegraphed and very powerful.

Last fight I think Jiri was trying to stay on the outside to find his windows to land bombs. He got his leg wrecked quickly and had to change stances. He also tried to rush it a bit which is exactly when he was countered and put out.

It’s like everything Poatan does is building towards his end goal. Watch the Strickland fight, Jiri and Hill fights. Just beautiful how he sets things up and pulls the trigger