UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2

[joenewbie]

Ian Garry has my attention v Jordan Williams on this card. The Times I've seen him he's looked fantastic.
This guy has all of the potential.

He is -350 so I would expect him to cruise to an easy win. Do you think he should be an even bigger favorite? I have never seen him fight so I don't know his potential.

 

[ExitLUPin]

I know Usman is 3 to 1 but that still seems like a steal to me. Colby looked worse and hesitant against TWood he didn't have his same output and his durability won't be the same.

Usman had undoubtedly gotten better since. He's just bigger, prolly better cardio and much more powerful. Colbys cardio isn't as extreme when he was to have competitive grappling sequences while Usman doesn't tire. Usman is also a much better clinch fighter. And he carries his power 5 rounds. Kamarus body work was underrated in the first fight too IMO. I just don't see a path to victory for Colby his chance was the first fight and he's prolly regressed since.

I prolly won't play his ML straight but that's a joocy parlay builder IMO and I'm hoping ITD is plus money again

 

[Spath]

I think the books kinda have it right. Colby is definitely the 2nd best WW...and the first fight was competitive...but I still think Usman is very clearly better. Colby landed plenty on Usman but he doesn't seem to have the power to hurt him. While Usman clearly has plenty of power. That's the difference. Both will land most likely. But Usman will do damage when he lands. He actually gave Colby some respect the first time, I wonder now if he really lets his hands go more and looks to end Colby's night quickly.

Usman definitely can be hurt and IIRC Colby hurt him bad with a body kick in their first fight. Usman played it off as a low blow which it wasn’t.

veteran move by Usman My point is they both hit each other plenty. Usman is the rightful favorite but it isn’t set in stone that he kicks Colby’s ass.

 

[mkess101]

Usman definitely can be hurt and IIRC Colby hurt him bad with a body kick in their first fight. Usman played it off as a low blow which it wasn’t.

veteran move by Usman My point is they both hit each other plenty. Usman is the rightful favorite but it isn’t set in stone that he kicks Colby’s ass.

Yeah...I kinda think a body kick is a more unlikely way to hurt a guy so I'd call that a bit more flukey but I get what you're saying.

 

[lefontes]

Bruno Souza replaces Laramie

 

[Mcgregorian]

Will just be going big on Gaethje and Zhang

 

[Main_Card_MMA]

He's just a guy that's let me down badly 2 or 3 times in the past that I won't touch. He leads with the chin and gets smacked a ridiculous amount.
He's fun to watch if you don't bet on him. Talented big lad in his division.

Yeah, he definitely has terrible strike defense and a bet on him could be a sweat. Quarantillo's recovery is much better than his chin so I think I'll look for the over 1.5 instead, but it depends on odds.

I'm only thinking about playing Imanov as a fade on Shahbazyan. Probably props instead of ML.

Probably only props on Namajunas and Zhang.

I know Usman is 3 to 1 but that still seems like a steal to me. Colby looked worse and hesitant against TWood he didn't have his same output and his durability won't be the same.

Usman had undoubtedly gotten better since. He's just bigger, prolly better cardio and much more powerful. Colbys cardio isn't as extreme when he was to have competitive grappling sequences while Usman doesn't tire. Usman is also a much better clinch fighter. And he carries his power 5 rounds. Kamarus body work was underrated in the first fight too IMO. I just don't see a path to victory for Colby his chance was the first fight and he's prolly regressed since.

I prolly won't play his ML straight but that's a joocy parlay builder IMO and I'm hoping ITD is plus money again

I agree with a lot of this. Maybe Colby looked scared because Woodley hits so hard? Luque took shots that Colby couldn't so I think Colby was fighting a little scared. It will be interesting to see the first round and if Colby has lost a step. If his chin is really gone, the under 3.5 may have value. I haven't seen much evidence that his chin is toast except him fighting scared. @mkess101 may be right that Usman will let his hands go like in Masvidal 2 and find the finish.

 

[Deleted member 510399]

Gaethje/Chandler is actually tougher than I thought it would be initially.

Justin really doesn't have good TDD, and Chandler is a powerhouse.

Gaethje will land a few leg kicks and make Chandler shoot, and Chandler in round 1 can unleash some pretty nasty GnP.

But Chandler is chinny as fuck. I was thinking it was looking like 70/30 Gaethje, now it's looking like 60/40. I hope money comes in on Chandler, because I really would like to get Gaethje @ -150.

Unders are a solid bet too, unless Chandler just holds top position in full guard.

 

[The Eagle]

Anyone else surprised that Edmen is a dog vs Imavov? I think Edmen is better almost everywhere. Obviously the only concern is whether Imavov can take him down.

 

[Bakayoko]

I need to studie the card more but at first take:
Ian Garry should apsolutely take this,he's legit and a class better fighter.
Hawes is fighting a guy who's lost every time against someone legit and who is stepping up from WW and Hawes himself is a pretty big MW.
Vera is priming and though Frankie beat Munoz last year I think Chito finishes him.
Really want to go with Gaethje and a bit frustrated the price is that low.Think he really wins but need to think how much value is there.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Gaethje/Chandler is actually tougher than I thought it would be initially.

Justin really doesn't have good TDD, and Chandler is a powerhouse.

Gaethje will land a few leg kicks and make Chandler shoot, and Chandler in round 1 can unleash some pretty nasty GnP.

But Chandler is chinny as fuck. I was thinking it was looking like 70/30 Gaethje, now it's looking like 60/40. I hope money comes in on Chandler, because I really would like to get Gaethje @ -150.

Unders are a solid bet too, unless Chandler just holds top position in full guard.

Not to mention he’s clueless off his back. Doesn’t exactly make me want to bet him at -190 here

 

[mkess101]

Not to mention he’s clueless off his back. Doesn’t exactly make me want to bet him at -190 here

So...the narrative on Gaethje is absolutely bizarre to me now. Prior to the Khabib fight, tons of Gaethje backers at big + odds were touting his collegiate wrestling success in why he was the perfect guy to dethrone Khabib. Stuff TD's, keep it standing, knock him out. And now...after one fight of being completely dominated on the mat vs probably the best MMA grappler of all time...Justin is total trash with his counter-wrestling and ground defense? I kinda don't get it.

Even if you go back to his WSOF days (I actually watched some of those fights back then) he had solid get-ups and was pretty good at stuffing TD attempts. There isn't a huge sample size to go off (in his UFC career Khabib is pretty much the only one who ever got him down or really even tried too much), but it's not like he looks like that guy Hu yesterday vs Petroski. Chandler has pretty good entries and TD's, but his top control is nothing special at all. Maybe he gets Justin down a time or two, but I actually lean against him being able to keep him there. Khabib on top of you is WAAAAAAY different than Chandler.

 

[mkess101]

Gaethje/Chandler is actually tougher than I thought it would be initially.

Justin really doesn't have good TDD, and Chandler is a powerhouse.

Gaethje will land a few leg kicks and make Chandler shoot, and Chandler in round 1 can unleash some pretty nasty GnP.

But Chandler is chinny as fuck. I was thinking it was looking like 70/30 Gaethje, now it's looking like 60/40. I hope money comes in on Chandler, because I really would like to get Gaethje @ -150.

Unders are a solid bet too, unless Chandler just holds top position in full guard.

Again...wondering how all of a sudden because Khabib got him down easily and smoked him that there's this belief that Justin can't stuff a takedown? I'm straight going off memory here, but I honestly cannot remember ANYONE in the UFC taking Justin down prior to Khabib. Maybe Eddie Alvarez did once? Maybe? If he did, he did nothing with it, that fight was almost entirely standing (and an awesome fight). Aside from that it's only been Khabib.

 

[Thesnake101]

So...the narrative on Gaethje is absolutely bizarre to me now. Prior to the Khabib fight, tons of Gaethje backers at big + odds were touting his collegiate wrestling success in why he was the perfect guy to dethrone Khabib. Stuff TD's, keep it standing, knock him out. And now...after one fight of being completely dominated on the mat vs probably the best MMA grappler of all time...Justin is total trash with his counter-wrestling and ground defense? I kinda don't get it.

Even if you go back to his WSOF days (I actually watched some of those fights back then) he had solid get-ups and was pretty good at stuffing TD attempts. There isn't a huge sample size to go off (in his UFC career Khabib is pretty much the only one who ever got him down or really even tried too much), but it's not like he looks like that guy Hu yesterday vs Petroski. Chandler has pretty good entries and TD's, but his top control is nothing special at all. Maybe he gets Justin down a time or two, but I actually lean against him being able to keep him there. Khabib on top of you is WAAAAAAY different than Chandler.

I think part of the narrative comes from the fact that Gaethje admitted to neglecting BJJ, and looked very much horrible off his back against Melancon that one time.

His counter-wrestling is obviously good, but I think his scrambling and overall ground defense is more instinct based rather than technical. Chandler is absolutely hellish on top too, he's not only neutralized but mauled many a talented grappler when he's gotten on top of them. Hell, he even controlled Benson despite gassing very early into their first fight, so I do think Justin would be doomed if Chandler gets him down.

That being said, on the feet he'll have a puncher's chance at best. One hell of a puncher's chance though.

 

[mkess101]

I think part of the narrative comes from the fact that Gaethje admitted to neglecting BJJ, and looked very much horrible off his back against Melancon that one time.

His counter-wrestling is obviously good, but I think his scrambling and overall ground defense is more instinct based rather than technical. Chandler is absolutely hellish on top too, he's not only neutralized but mauled many a talented grappler when he's gotten on top of them. Hell, he even controlled Benson despite gassing very early into their first fight, so I do think Justin would be doomed if Chandler gets him down.

That being said, on the feet he'll have a puncher's chance at best. One hell of a puncher's chance though.

I probably need to go back and watch some earlier Chandler fights in Bellator, but from what I remember he takes a ton of chances with his top position (Ie he trades control for trying to inflict damage--which is okay when you do land bombs but also allows guys to get up more easily).

Melancon? I don't remember that fight...in the UFC? Or WSOF? The only pro fight I remember Justin being controlled on the mat was his last one vs Khabib. I think I've seen most of them if not all too, I don't remember him fighting Melancon.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

So...the narrative on Gaethje is absolutely bizarre to me now. Prior to the Khabib fight, tons of Gaethje backers at big + odds were touting his collegiate wrestling success in why he was the perfect guy to dethrone Khabib. Stuff TD's, keep it standing, knock him out. And now...after one fight of being completely dominated on the mat vs probably the best MMA grappler of all time...Justin is total trash with his counter-wrestling and ground defense? I kinda don't get it.

Even if you go back to his WSOF days (I actually watched some of those fights back then) he had solid get-ups and was pretty good at stuffing TD attempts. There isn't a huge sample size to go off (in his UFC career Khabib is pretty much the only one who ever got him down or really even tried too much), but it's not like he looks like that guy Hu yesterday vs Petroski. Chandler has pretty good entries and TD's, but his top control is nothing special at all. Maybe he gets Justin down a time or two, but I actually lean against him being able to keep him there. Khabib on top of you is WAAAAAAY different than Chandler.

Did he not look lost on his back? Most wrestlers do

 

[ballsackarino]

Again...wondering how all of a sudden because Khabib got him down easily and smoked him that there's this belief that Justin can't stuff a takedown? I'm straight going off memory here, but I honestly cannot remember ANYONE in the UFC taking Justin down prior to Khabib. Maybe Eddie Alvarez did once? Maybe? If he did, he did nothing with it, that fight was almost entirely standing (and an awesome fight). Aside from that it's only been Khabib.

You can have good takedown defence and counter wrestling but can still be a fish out of water once you get put on your back.

 

[joenewbie]

Anyone else surprised that Edmen is a dog vs Imavov? I think Edmen is better almost everywhere. Obviously the only concern is whether Imavov can take him down.

The fact that Edmen got the crap beat out of him on the ground in his last 2 fights is factoring into the price I think.

 

[mkess101]

Did he not look lost on his back? Most wrestlers do

Against Khabib? Hell yes he did. But dude...that's Khabib. You're talking about a guy who's playing chess with his MMA grappling while almost everyone else is playing checkers. Poirier has shown to be a very capable MMA grappler and he was so overmatched vs Khabib that he told his corner "I can't keep him off me, I don't have any answers..."

I just think taking that one example and extrapolating it to Justin being an absolute turtle off his back who's unable to get back to his feet seems like it could be a mistake.

 

[mkess101]

You can have good takedown defence and counter wrestling but can still be a fish out of water once you get put on your back.

Very true, but Khabib was the first and only guy in Justin's career who made him look like that. You're talking about 30+ fights including his amateur career. He's been taken down sure, but he got back up/sustained no damage on the mat/wasn't in danger at all of being subbed those times.

Khabib made pretty much EVERYONE look lost when he put them on their back. Unless we think Chandler is anywhere near Khabib in terms of grappling prowess and top control, I don't think we can say with any level of certainty at all that he'd be able to hold Justin down and/or do real damage on the mat. Is it possible he could? Sure. But using the Khabib fight as rationale that it's likely? Nah.