Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Card, Oct 24, 2021.
The only way the gaethje fight goes the distance is if it was the main event. Being that it isn't it should be a lock and a half.
I believe TJ laramie pulled out but don't know/forget who the replacement is.
Edgar could DEC Vera, Iaquinta/Green goes over but will be -250-300, lotta people on Curtis, would never lay the price on Usman despite favoring him.
Lord have mercy on whomever bets on the Villante/Barnett fight. That's gonna be a mess.
Gonna throw money on Usman and Justin
Ehhh I'm getting a similar vibe, but then we saw Walker & Santos go 5 rounds lol so you never know I think the only possible way it goes to decision is if Chandler goes full wrestler, if he brawls with Gaethje there's no chance he'll survive with that dodgy chin of his.
If Chandler grounds him I expect him to lock up an arm-triangle.
Hard to see the fight going the distance, but I also don't think there'll be value on FDGTD. It'll probably be around -250 if not lower.
Those two clowns should both be fired for that feint/feint/feint/feint/feint/tap/feint etc etc garbage main event.
I really hope they want to slug it out, I'd hate to see this on the ground.
As big of a heel as Colby is, I think you have to play him here.
The last fight was 2-2 going into the 5th. Colby changed camps and is getting better rounds in.
I played Usman by KO in their first fight, and I played Usman by KO in Jorge 2/Burns. But I think people are making too much of those KOs.
His striking has gotten better, but it's overblown. This will be another close fight between the 2 best WWs in the UFC, and Colby @ +250 is off imo
The first fight was really close. Definitely staying away from Usman at those odds but can't bring myself to bet on and then root for Covington.
Doing a multi event parlay of Blachowicz (-275), Gaethje (-175) and Poirier (-160).
I think Gaethje absolutely smokes Chandler. The way Do Bronx was able to come back and stagger Chandler bodes well for Gaethje's chances to do the same, I just don't think Chandler's chin will hold up. We can talk about the wrestling and how Chandler could implement a Khabib-esque gameplan but come on, 35 year old Michael Chandler is not Khabib.
Edit: my apologies, just realized I had included UFC 267 stuff in what I posted here. Removed it
I think the books kinda have it right. Colby is definitely the 2nd best WW...and the first fight was competitive...but I still think Usman is very clearly better. Colby landed plenty on Usman but he doesn't seem to have the power to hurt him. While Usman clearly has plenty of power. That's the difference. Both will land most likely. But Usman will do damage when he lands. He actually gave Colby some respect the first time, I wonder now if he really lets his hands go more and looks to end Colby's night quickly.
I doubt I'll bet it, as Usman is too chalky and I don't think he wins as often as his price tag indicates, at least based on the last fight.
But if Colby gets to +300 I may. It'll be interesting to see if they actually grapple this time around.
Colby was exhausted and RDA took rd5 because of it. Usman has prime Nick Diaz cardio and if he tired whatsoever I'd be amazed.
Colby is a shithead, but nobody can question his heart. Dude is a fighter and will go out on his sword.
Totally agree. The biggest fault is Chandler's chin and he's slower than he used to be. I think it's risky to bet against him as he can still land bombs so I'm looking at the under, but Gaethje is the right side. I can barely imagine Chandler wall and stalling for 3 rounds.
Liking Namajunas, Burgos and Imanov here, but small, mid, mid-small. Probably 0.5U, 1.5-1.8U, 0.7-1U.
Never, ever bet on Burgos.
He wins when he's underdog, loses when he's favourite and gets hit an absurd amount.
He's way too unpredictable.
Damn, really? I haven't followed Burgos much, but Quarantillo is pretty hittable. Burgos has a better chin and will keep coming forward. Burgos won as favorite against Trator, Rosa, Pepey, Holobaugh, Swanson and Amirkhani. He was upset by Barboza, Emmett and Kattar. That's 6/9 going with odds including 2 that were about -220 or so. Quarantillo doesn't have the power or the wrestling of Emmett and he definitely isn't Kattar or Barboza in the striking department. I guess it could be a close striking match in terms of raw numbers, but I think Burgos will drop him at some point or at least obviously hit him a lot harder. Who has Quarantillo beaten? This seems like a gimme fight to get Burgos back on the winning track by sacrificing a mediocre guy who is stylistically favorable for him. I guess I'm curious, do you see something in Quarantillo? Does he win a decision, maybe close split due to MMA judging?
He's just a guy that's let me down badly 2 or 3 times in the past that I won't touch. He leads with the chin and gets smacked a ridiculous amount.
He's fun to watch if you don't bet on him. Talented big lad in his division.
Ian Garry has my attention v Jordan Williams on this card. The Times I've seen him he's looked fantastic.
This guy has all of the potential.
Fuck that guy. I hope he gets KTFO in the first 3, but he's probably gonna last and make it competitive. He's more mobile than Masvidal and moves better than Burns, IMO. He might even clinch up or go for takedowns to tire out Usman's arms, but I think Usman has the cardio edge and I'm terrible at estimating cardio.
I think the cardio is roughly even, but Colby just ends up looking more tired and worn because Usman's punches have more on them. At least that's what it seemed like the first time around. Colby is about as irritating as someone can be, but yeah he will fight like a dog in there and I have to respect that if nothing else.
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