UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2

[mkess101]

Important to note that while Primus and Yamauchi have good BJJ, they are incapable of wall walking.

That said, I have no idea if Gaethje can wall walk haha.

I think that's an important point. Guys with good bjj often fall into the trap in MMA of being content to fight off their back. They don't take big damage, they may try to work for a sub here and there, but they give rounds away in the process. Gaethje no way in hell is gonna do that. For sure he's gonna work to get back to his feet. Now, for sure there's a chance if he's forced to do it that he'll give up a worse position but I think that's a fairly low % of happening.

 

[mmatrix100]

I'll bet both props for Gaethje by KO and Chandler by SUB. I highly doubt this fight is going to decision.

 

[Bakayoko]

Chito should take this,he's in his physical prime and has gotten plenty of experience past several fights.In this lower categories age plays a bigger role and Frankie could easily be old overnight,specially after that KO.However,his win against Munoz and Chito being a slow starter makes me worried a bit,potentially Edgar could win a decision if he takes first two.Still,I would give Vera 70% chance of winning.
What does Curtis have that some people are on him?Maybe thinking that Hawes could gas and Curtis can get it done on experience?Doubt it,the guy has only been beating lower comp and is moving up a divison.He's gonna get smashed.

 

[Thesnake101]

Think I might end up taking a stab at Frankie by decision. He may be old, but what I saw from Chito against Grant, and even against Aldo, make me feel confident in Frankie wrestling him down.

The Sandhagen KO was bad, but I think Cory is leagues better than Vera.

 

[lefontes]

Camur out. Dustin Jacoby replaces against John Allan

 

[Shelter]

What does Curtis have that some people are on him?Maybe thinking that Hawes could gas and Curtis can get it done on experience?Doubt it,the guy has only been beating lower comp and is moving up a divison.He's gonna get smashed.

If I had to guess, I'd say it's because Hawes has looked real chinny in his last two fights. Both Imavov and Daukaus had him hurt in their fights. The talent and the athleticism are there for him, but he really doesn't handle being hit in the face well. Curtis is older and coming up a weight class, no denying that, but he's also an experienced fighter with 14 KO/TKO wins.

I think it's going to come down to whether or not Hawes wrestles in this one. The Cooper and Magomedkerimov fights showed that Curtis is vulnerable to being put on his back, and as long as Hawes hasn't completely fallen in love with his striking he should be able to use his size to muscle Curtis down consistently.

 

[Deleted member 510399]

Think I might end up taking a stab at Frankie by decision. He may be old, but what I saw from Chito against Grant, and even against Aldo, make me feel confident in Frankie wrestling him down.

The Sandhagen KO was bad, but I think Cory is leagues better than Vera.

Yeah I think Vera just starts too slow. Edgar is the second best fighter he'll have ever fought, he's not an easy puzzle to solve, even though Cory made it look easy.

Frankie decision is the play here imo

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Like the unders in the main and co main

rose/weili more so

 

[Stat_Collector]

Think I might end up taking a stab at Frankie by decision. He may be old, but what I saw from Chito against Grant, and even against Aldo, make me feel confident in Frankie wrestling him down.

The Sandhagen KO was bad, but I think Cory is leagues better than Vera.

The problem with these old guys who were once champions or seen their best days behind them, is that previous fights dont have relevance to today because of erosion that comes with age. Saw this with Woodley and Souza , fights that you can use as previous examples no longer have merit because the decay in skills happens every 6 months and their interest to climb ranks and win previous glory is next to zero.

 

[Bakayoko]

If I had to guess, I'd say it's because Hawes has looked real chinny in his last two fights. Both Imavov and Daukaus had him hurt in their fights. The talent and the athleticism are there for him, but he really doesn't handle being hit in the face well. Curtis is older and coming up a weight class, no denying that, but he's also an experienced fighter with 14 KO/TKO wins.

I think it's going to come down to whether or not Hawes wrestles in this one. The Cooper and Magomedkerimov fights showed that Curtis is vulnerable to being put on his back, and as long as Hawes hasn't completely fallen in love with his striking he should be able to use his size to muscle Curtis down consistently.

Yeah,that makes sense.Although last several years he's KO'd mostly cans and him wanting to retire after the Cooper fight doesn't spring optimisim.I think he gets ragdolled but yeah,I would feel more confident too if it was Winn fighting him who doesn't poses that kind of threat.

 

[Holz37]

The problem with these old guys who were once champions or seen their best days behind them, is that previous fights dont have relevance to today because of erosion that comes with age. Saw this with Woodley and Souza , fights that you can use as previous examples no longer have merit because the decay in skills happens every 6 months and their interest to climb ranks and win previous glory is next to zero.

Assuming that Frankie's skills have declined dramatically and he has no motivation to win is a big reach. If he wasn't motivated or skilled he wouldn't still be competitive with top 15 guys in the ufc right now. Woodley fought much better competition and is very low volume. Souza was just washed. Don't think those two are great comparisons to Frankie.

 

[Deleted member 581330]

Assuming that Frankie's skills have declined dramatically and he has no motivation to win is a big reach. If he wasn't motivated or skilled he wouldn't still be competitive with top 15 guys in the ufc right now. Woodley fought much better competition and is very low volume. Souza was just washed. Don't think those two are great comparisons to Frankie.

The man is a 40 year old bantamweight with a 13 year fight career in the UFC averaging 2 fights a year at the highest level of the sport fighting war after war because of his lacking finishing power and always being outsized, and has been brutally koed in 2 of his last 3 bouts. I don't think it is a reach at all to suggest a significant decline, rather I think it's the most likely possibility. Any tape of Edgar there is in existence, you should expect a worse version of him coming in on Saturday. I think he matches up okay with Vera and has aged incredibly well considering the circumstances, but don't see any value in his ML even at +140. Only decent play on him is his decision line, better to bet on split decision if you can find that prop.

 

[mkess101]

Does Frankie still have it in him to try to take Vera down and control him? That's what Aldo did to secure the win. It was safe (surprisingly safe for Aldo honestly) but effective. That's really Vera's only loss in his last 9 fights (I think he was borderline robbed vs Song, Vera won that fight). If this fight stays standing, I think Frankie is in trouble. Vera is MUCH better at cutting off the cage than Munhoz. Frankie really fought a perfect fight vs Pedro in that one, exposing Munhoz inability to deal with lateral movement. Vera also is more varied in his attacks, Pedro throws leg kicks and borderline wild power shots that he doesn't set up with feints. Vera's striking is more nuanced and his forward pressure has a better design to it. He has a purpose.

I would never count a guy like Frankie out, but I like Vera to get the win here.

 

[Holz37]

The man is a 40 year old bantamweight with a 13 year fight career in the UFC averaging 2 fights a year at the highest level of the sport fighting war after war because of his lacking finishing power and always being outsized, and has been brutally koed in 2 of his last 3 bouts. I don't think it is a reach at all to suggest a significant decline, rather I think it's the most likely possibility. Any tape of Edgar there is in existence, you should expect a worse version of him coming in on Saturday. I think he matches up okay with Vera and has aged incredibly well considering the circumstances, but don't see any value in his ML even at +140. Only decent play on him is his decision line, better to bet on split decision if you can find that prop.

Fair points. My issue with the original statement was saying older fighters decay in skill every 6 months and have no motivation like it applies to all of them equally is a reach. I agree Frankie has aged pretty well considering the amount of damage hes taken. His chin looked fine against Munhoz who is a bigger hitter than Vera. Sure its possible his chin could be gone after the last KO or that he looks like a shell of his former self come Saturday. Considering the level of competition hes faced the last few years I don't think he really has looked too bad.

 

[Thesnake101]

Does Frankie still have it in him to try to take Vera down and control him? That's what Aldo did to secure the win. It was safe (surprisingly safe for Aldo honestly) but effective. That's really Vera's only loss in his last 9 fights (I think he was borderline robbed vs Song, Vera won that fight). If this fight stays standing, I think Frankie is in trouble. Vera is MUCH better at cutting off the cage than Munhoz. Frankie really fought a perfect fight vs Pedro in that one, exposing Munhoz inability to deal with lateral movement. Vera also is more varied in his attacks, Pedro throws leg kicks and borderline wild power shots that he doesn't set up with feints. Vera's striking is more nuanced and his forward pressure has a better design to it. He has a purpose.

I would never count a guy like Frankie out, but I like Vera to get the win here.

Grant had some degree of success in grounding Chito in the second round of their rematch, he lost control by going for submission over position, which I don't think Frankie would ever do.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Frankie goes back to td's and top control. He's inside out attacks are a thing the past and Vera can cut off angles pretty well but Franke always has his wrestling, pace, top control and cardio. I don't like the betting line but I do like Frankie in that fight. Frankie and Edmen parlay is inticing

 

[Thesnake101]

Frankie goes back to td's and top control. He's inside out attacks are a thing the past and Vera can cut off angles pretty well but Franke always has his wrestling, pace, top control and cardio. I don't like the betting line but I do like Frankie in that fight. Frankie and Edmen parlay is inticing

Personally, I'd rather go Frankie dec line and Edmen's ML separately. Just safer if either of them lose, which I think Edmen just might.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Personally, I'd rather go Frankie dec line and Edmen's ML separately. Just safer if either of them lose, which I think Edmen just might.

I may since I already have a cheap bet on a on big parlay

 

[rev0lver]

Not really seeing talk on Pereira-Michailidis. Is there value here on Michailidis? I get that Pereira's a high level kickboxer and Glover's been heaping praise on him, but I'm naturally suspect seeing a 3-1 transitioner who's only beaten cans sitting at -250 against an experienced guy. His TDD looked good in his last fight, but that was against a lower-level striker. Got subbed in his MMA debut but that was 6 years ago, has he really been grinding the grappling since?

 

[Ballsaque]

Not really seeing talk on Pereira-Michailidis. Is there value here on Michailidis? I get that Pereira's a high level kickboxer and Glover's been heaping praise on him, but I'm naturally suspect seeing a 3-1 transitioner who's only beaten cans sitting at -250 against an experienced guy. His TDD looked good in his last fight, but that was against a lower-level striker. Got subbed in his MMA debut but that was 6 years ago, has he really been grinding the grappling since?

Can the Greek wrestle I think is the question