UFC 264 | Poirier vs McGregor

[Captain Chesapeake]

Whenever a fighter misses weight by so much, i assume they want to cheat. She would rather miss weight and keep her cardio than try to make weight.

It could indicate an illness on her part, but usually it's an indicator of someone who is ready to wrestle.

Or she’s on her period and has death cramps and quits after the first round

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

How is Aldana's clinch game, anyone know? As far as I remember she's mostly likes to strike from distance. I know we've seen Yana win that one fight exclusively by clinching a girl up against the cage, she was pretty strong and seemed to have complete control in the clinch, although that girl was a grappler, so it will be far more dangerous to close that distance against Aldana, but if she does, I think she can really wear on Aldana, especially with the weight miss

Ask holly holm

 

[svmr_db]

Anyone think there's real value in Topuria by decision @ +275? I can see this fight being real ugly (non crowd pleasing) the longer it goes, I think Topuria won't KO Hall but probably grind him out for 3 rounds.

 

[Kazda1]

How is Aldana's clinch game, anyone know? As far as I remember she's mostly likes to strike from distance. I know we've seen Yana win that one fight exclusively by clinching a girl up against the cage, she was pretty strong and seemed to have complete control in the clinch, although that girl was a grappler, so it will be far more dangerous to close that distance against Aldana, but if she does, I think she can really wear on Aldana, especially with the weight miss

I don't think she's great there, and I think after Holly Holm ran a female Khabib on her, it's likely she stays far away from clinching here. I do think it's been a while since people remembered how much of a terrible striker and how terrible Yana's defense is when doing so. For what it's worth, I bet on her to beat Viera and I thought Viera won that fight. I'm not totally confident in it like I once was earlier this week, but I still think Aldana wins here.

 

[DogsAndKisses]

Anyone think there's real value in Topuria by decision @ +275? I can see this fight being real ugly (non crowd pleasing) the longer it goes, I think Topuria won't KO Hall but probably grind him out for 3 rounds.

Yeah was eyeing o1.5 as a potential bet. Value here for sure. Hall leg lock and Topuria KO ways it ends itd. Topuria high level jits and Hall with that karate style gonna be harder to corner than Damon Jackson. Like you said solid chance this plays out with Topuria on top controlling the fight for 3.

 

[Deleted member 510399]

Anyone think there's real value in Topuria by decision @ +275? I can see this fight being real ugly (non crowd pleasing) the longer it goes, I think Topuria won't KO Hall but probably grind him out for 3 rounds.

That's the play if you're playing Topuria.

Topuria is legit, but most of his wins come by sub. He's a well rounded fighter, but doesn't have real 1 punch KO power.

Ryan Hall is a cerebral fighter, and I simply don't see him putting himself in a position to get finished here. He's acknowledged how legit Topuria is, and has also talked about head trauma and trying to avoid it.

I think the FGTD play in general is good. I can see Hall managing to get Topuria's back for 2/3 rounds, with maybe 2 minutes left in each round, and just ride him out.

 

[Bakayoko]

Yep,agree with what is said.Hall is going to avoid boxing range and the most probable way for Topuria is accepting guard game and holding position without risking much.This is the only fight that I will bet and haven't yet, thinking beetwen betting Hall or Topuria DEC line

 

[svmr_db]

Yep,agree with what is said.Hall is going to avoid boxing range and the most probable way for Topuria is accepting guard game and holding position without risking much.This is the only fight that I will bet and haven't yet, thinking beetwen betting Hall or Topuria DEC line

Yeah I'm pretty high on Topuria but I think the line is way too tilted towards a Topuria finish @ +105. Hall is unlikely to be subbed and his style doesn't make me think it's easy to conclude he'll get KO'D.

Topuria decision is for sure a great bet.

 

[Card]

 

[Card]

 

[SalvadorAllende]

I think with the difference in footwork he can dictate the range and pace fairly easily if he stays disciplined. What worries me away from prebetting is him planting in the pocket and giving Tai a chance to hit him hard, and despite how vehemently hes been denying this, he kinda did just shell up and quit vs Tybura. If Tai can somehow put him in a tough spot like that, like have him backed against the cage and land 1 or 2 hard shots, I don't feel comfortable expecting Hardy to persevere through adversity

Am I the only one who thinks Tuivasa is the better striker and way more seasoned than Hardy?

I'm not betting on this one but I can't see how people think Hardy is the better fighter. He might have physical attributes but I don't see a striking advantage and I don't think he is going to exploit Tuivasa terrible ground game (because his gg is terrible too).

 

[Card]

Irene Aldana (139.5)* vs. Yana Kunitskaya (134.5)
* Aldana fined 30 percent of her purse but bout will go on as scheduled

 

[SolarSeiko]

Anyone think there's real value in Topuria by decision @ +275? I can see this fight being real ugly (non crowd pleasing) the longer it goes, I think Topuria won't KO Hall but probably grind him out for 3 rounds.

I think fight goes distance at +150 is worth playing.

 

[SolarSeiko]

Gordon Ryan I'd be shocked.

Maybe he could now that Gordon can't fix his stomach issue... But prolly not since Gordon dedicates 100 % of his time to bjj.

 

[Oblivian]

Yep,agree with what is said.Hall is going to avoid boxing range and the most probable way for Topuria is accepting guard game and holding position without risking much.This is the only fight that I will bet and haven't yet, thinking beetwen betting Hall or Topuria DEC line

I actually think Hall/Topuria is probably one of the hardest to predict. I can honestly see either winning ITD or by decision. To me it's really hard to put %s to each of those though. I think Hall snagging a sub is pretty likely, but I also can see Topuria finishing him standing. I do not think Hall likes getting hit at all and I can see the fight getting stopped earlier than typical fighters if Hall reacts badly. On the flip side though, I can honestly see either winning an ugly decision.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I actually think Hall/Topuria is probably one of the hardest to predict. I can honestly see either winning ITD or by decision. To me it's really hard to put %s to each of those though. I think Hall snagging a sub is pretty likely, but I also can see Topuria finishing him standing. I do not think Hall likes getting hit at all and I can see the fight getting stopped earlier than typical fighters if Hall reacts badly. On the flip side though, I can honestly see either winning an ugly decision.

Guys like hall are going to be hard to finish unless they get slept

always having that jiu jitsu to rely on saves guys like him. If he’s hurt he can just go down and tie the other guy up and recover

 

[SolarSeiko]

Too add my 5 cents to Giles-Du Pleises.I don't rate either of them high,doubt both of them will be contenders.But at even odds I'll add something on Giles.I don't rate high Du Plessis previous acomplishment as I don't trust this former KSW guys,it's not a organization with good fighters and competition,they're all juiced to the gills there and rarely any if anyone ever had succes when coming to UFC.Du Plessis is too stiff and predictable for my taste and won a fight he was losing against Perez.Giles is a better all rounder.That being said he has power and Giles can be knocked out,he has holes too,but I think Giles should be a slight favorite,so we have some value on him IMO,just don't risk much.

Jan came from ksw lol...

 

[longway]

I actually think Hall/Topuria is probably one of the hardest to predict. I can honestly see either winning ITD or by decision. To me it's really hard to put %s to each of those though. I think Hall snagging a sub is pretty likely, but I also can see Topuria finishing him standing. I do not think Hall likes getting hit at all and I can see the fight getting stopped earlier than typical fighters if Hall reacts badly. On the flip side though, I can honestly see either winning an ugly decision.

I have a lot of confidence in Topuria bc most fighters are terrified of Hall's BJJ and they give far too much respect there, so he can play his crazy kicking game without fear.

If you watch his fight against Saul Rogers, who is nothing special anywhere, he had no fear of Hall's guard and won the fight without getting himself in much danger even while being in Hall's guard.

Topuria is better than Rogers everywhere and will have no fear getting in close to fuck him up. Can Hall snatch a leg lock? Of course, but the Rogers fight shows he is no magician, and you can go into Hall's guard and win from there with solid fundamentals.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Whenever a fighter misses weight by so much, i assume they want to cheat. She would rather miss weight and keep her cardio than try to make weight.

It could indicate an illness on her part, but usually it's an indicator of someone who is ready to wrestle.

You do know that Yana is a better wrestler?

 

[longway]

You do know that Yana is a better wrestler?

Yes.