UFC 264 | Poirier vs McGregor

[HockeyBjj]

Hey all, something I think I might be onto. Connor might come out fighting orthodox. He did preser face off, and ceremony weigh in face off, left hand forward. He’s never done that before. Is it because he’s been training that way for last 6 months and it was what he defaulted to? He could be using that to negate the calf kicks rather than trying to check them

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Hey all, something I think I might be onto. Connor might come out fighting orthodox. He did preser face off, and ceremony weigh in face off, left hand forward. He’s never done that before. Is it because he’s been training that way for last 6 months and it was what he defaulted to? He could be using that to negate the calf kicks rather than trying to check them

Quite possible. However, I'd imagine that he has some defensive liabilities out of the Ortho stance that could not all be kinked out in just 6 months

 

[Thesnake101]

Hot take: Greg Hardy's power is overrated. Some not so durable guys (Crowder, Tybura) have been able to wear it and take over the fight, and the only guys he's finished have also gotten stopped early in other occasions.

Adams, Lane, Gordon, Greene and Smolyakov are not even in the same tier as Tuivasa in terms of skills, durability or toughness, and that's really saying something.

Don't forget that the last time Hardy fought a heavy from down under he needed his inhaler to not Dada himself too. Tuivasa wins, and if he doesn't, then he was never my friend.

 

[matthew55]

@Sadistics sup buddy, any thoughts on the card? I figure you got max units on Conor/ Poirier draw

 

[mkess101]

Hot take: Greg Hardy's power is overrated. Some not so durable guys (Crowder, Tybura) have been able to wear it and take over the fight, and the only guys he's finished have also gotten stopped early in other occasions.

Adams, Lane, Gordon, Greene and Smolyakov are not even in the same tier as Tuivasa in terms of skills, durability or toughness, and that's really saying something.

Don't forget that the last time Hardy fought a heavy from down under he needed his inhaler to not Dada himself too. Tuivasa wins, and if he doesn't, then he was never my friend.

HW is weird. Everyone has enough power to put guys away when they land clean but the KO's seem to have more variance than with smaller guys.

I think I agree in general though. People thought Hardy was a huge puncher... likely he has about average power for a HW. Maybe very slightly above average. But worlds below Ngannou or even Lewis.

 

[LEMONZEST]

HW is weird. Everyone has enough power to put guys away when they land clean but the KO's seem to have more variance than with smaller guys.

I think I agree in general though. People thought Hardy was a huge puncher... likely he has about average power for a HW. Maybe very slightly above average. But worlds below Ngannou or even Lewis.

leans tomorrow Mikey! ? I always tail the best!

 

[Deleted member 510399]

As someone who faded Hardy in almost every fight he's had, his improvements are undeniable.

He's actually training hard every single day under Rashad and Dean Thomas, and is legitimately a freak athlete.

He survived 3 rounds against Volkov and didn't look half bad. In round 1 versus Tybura, his stand up had improved drastically from his previous fight.

His cardio issues aren't going anywhere, and his power is overblown. But Tai just isn't very good. He's been training solely under Mark Hunt, in a lackluster gym, and was drinking heavily 3 weeks ago.

Give me a motivated, ever improving Hardy anyday, over someone who is being favored because they knocked out Struve who was on a 1-6 run, and Hunsucker who never won a fight in the UFC.

 

[Kazda1]

You do know that Yana is a better wrestler?

Better wrestler based on what? Cage stalling? Yana isn't much of a wrestler IMO.

Questions.....

Was it me or Dana was clearly upset at Conor's attire at the weigh in?


I thought Tai was at ATT these days? At least that's what I'd been hearing recently?

 

[Deleted member 510399]

Better wrestler based on what? Cage stalling? Yana isn't much of a wrestler IMO.

Questions.....

Was it me or Dana was clearly upset at Conor's attire at the weigh in?


I thought Tai was at ATT these days? At least that's what I'd been hearing recently?

Tai was at ATT for a short duration. He's back with Mark Hunt and his lower tier camp for this fight.

Cormier was actually asked about Tai's wrestling today, and he said he thinks of Tai as a friend, but he has absolutely awful TDs, and the only way he'll end up on top is if they both stumble and he lands on top somehow.

 

[CasterMard]

I think it's safe to safe Conor was high on cocaine during the presser. Dunno how much does that affect performance and where he's at mentally

 

[Thesnake101]

I think it's safe to safe Conor was high on cocaine during the presser. Dunno how much does that affect performance and where he's at mentally

He was off his socks for the RDA one, and while the fight didn't happen, he did end up emptying the tank early against Cabo Nate.

 

[svmr_db]

If only there were more goofy props like the Conor main events sometimes have

- Ryan Hall over / under 6.5 imanari roll attempts?

 

[Kazda1]

Looking at the weigh ins last night I noticed Aldana looking thicker in terms on muscle mass (or at least I assume). I'm still worried about her cardio but I'm not sure it may matter much here. It's been a while since Kunitskaya has been boxed up, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Aldana pull off another shocking KO (I was in attendance when Ketlen got sent to the shadow realm). And the sound from the crowd said it all - no one expected it to happen from that fight.

Anyways, I'm gonna back my pre-fight read and hope she doesn't let me down.

 

[mkess101]

leans tomorrow Mikey! ? I always tail the best!

I'm on Dustin at -110, Pereira at -160, Wonderboy -160, and Akhmedov +140, and Tuivasa dec +350 so far.

I may add a small play on Dustin dec +500 too. I think we may well see a more conservative Conor early but who still slows late as Dustin pours it on. A late stoppage or decision win by Dustin is my prediction. Conor is still dangerous but at this point Dustin just seems like the better overall fighter.

I'm out of town for my daughter's swim meet so not sure how much I'll get to watch though.

Good luck man!

 

[mkess101]

As someone who faded Hardy in almost every fight he's had, his improvements are undeniable.

He's actually training hard every single day under Rashad and Dean Thomas, and is legitimately a freak athlete.

He survived 3 rounds against Volkov and didn't look half bad. In round 1 versus Tybura, his stand up had improved drastically from his previous fight.

His cardio issues aren't going anywhere, and his power is overblown. But Tai just isn't very good. He's been training solely under Mark Hunt, in a lackluster gym, and was drinking heavily 3 weeks ago.

Give me a motivated, ever improving Hardy anyday, over someone who is being favored because they knocked out Struve who was on a 1-6 run, and Hunsucker who never won a fight in the UFC.

To me, the delta between Hardy's ML and his KO prop are too wide. If I'm betting Hardy, I'll bet Hardy KO. Or at least put half of what I was gonna bet on his ML on the KO prop.

His standup has improved but be it asthma or whatever, his volume just plummets after rd 1. You can't win rounds barely throwing any punches. Tuivasa has a pretty bad gas tank too but at least he keeps throwing.

Hardy is more skilled but his Butterbean-tier cardio and willingness to just stare at his opponent and throw an occasional leg kicks after rd 1 just don't cut it. I'm taking a stab at Tuivasa dec +350. I can see Hardy winning Rd 1 by being better, then Tai taking rds 2 and 3 by just doing something while Hardy stands there.

 

[DogsAndKisses]

Tai was at ATT for a short duration. He's back with Mark Hunt and his lower tier camp for this fight.

Cormier was actually asked about Tai's wrestling today, and he said he thinks of Tai as a friend, but he has absolutely awful TDs, and the only way he'll end up on top is if they both stumble and he lands on top somehow.

Where did you get that last part from? I'm pretty sure during that Cormier media Q&A he said something along the lines of "if Tai uses some of the things he got from AKA, he could make this an easier fight for himself" dont recall anything about horrible tds and stumbling on top lol

 

[Dooze]

To me, the delta between Hardy's ML and his KO prop are too wide. If I'm betting Hardy, I'll bet Hardy KO. Or at least put half of what I was gonna bet on his ML on the KO prop.

His standup has improved but be it asthma or whatever, his volume just plummets after rd 1. You can't win rounds barely throwing any punches. Tuivasa has a pretty bad gas tank too but at least he keeps throwing.

Hardy is more skilled but his Butterbean-tier cardio and willingness to just stare at his opponent and throw an occasional leg kicks after rd 1 just don't cut it. I'm taking a stab at Tuivasa dec +350. I can see Hardy winning Rd 1 by being better, then Tai taking rds 2 and 3 by just doing something while Hardy stands there.

Would Hardy r1 at 6.0 instead not be a better bet if you're concerned about his drop off in output? He could still find a KO in R2 but the odds are massively improved if you think his best chance is R1 before the drop off.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Better wrestler based on what? Cage stalling? Yana isn't much of a wrestler IMO.

Questions.....

Was it me or Dana was clearly upset at Conor's attire at the weigh in?


I thought Tai was at ATT these days? At least that's what I'd been hearing recently?

Wrestling i mean her clinch grappling and top control, she has good reversals to.

I'll prolly avoid her just cuz of my bad track rec with wmma

 

[mkess101]

Would Hardy r1 at 6.0 instead not be a better bet if you're concerned about his drop off in output? He could still find a KO in R2 but the odds are massively improved if you think his best chance is R1 before the drop off.

Absolutely. I didn't see that prop listed on BAS but I could have missed it. Good call.

 

[chaimer]

Over 2.5 rounds means round 3 must start, correct?