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UFC 253: Adesanya v Costa

the more i tape, the more i'm confused as to why Blachowicz is +220.
Dominick looked pretty good against jones but I think that's more of JJ slowing down instead of Reyes being great.

Jan is a live dog for sure. He has power in his hands, is durable as heck, and is coming off 3 really solid wins over good competition (Rockhold, Jacare, Corey Anderson)

I am also low key liking this fight to go over 2.5 rounds at -120.
 
loller90278 said:
the more i tape, the more i'm confused as to why Blachowicz is +220.
Dominick looked pretty good against jones but I think that's more of JJ slowing down instead of Reyes being great.

Jan is a live dog for sure. He has power in his hands, is durable as heck, and is coming off 3 really solid wins over good competition (Rockhold, Jacare, Corey Anderson)

I am also low key liking this fight to go over 2.5 rounds at -120.
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I'd wait a round or two for Reyes to slow down before hitting Jan, personally. Think Reyes wins the first round at a high clip, so good chance of being able to get Jan +400 and avoiding the KO1 loss condition.

Also there's pretty significant asterisks on Jan's SOS. Rockhold and Jacare were clearly not the same guys they've been historically, and Anderson was a pretty-even kickboxing match before the flash KO.
 
Gugabe said:
I'd wait a round or two for Reyes to slow down before hitting Jan, personally. Think Reyes wins the first round at a high clip, so good chance of being able to get Jan +400 and avoiding the KO1 loss condition.
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Sounds good. You think he gets to +400 tho?
 
loller90278 said:
the more i tape, the more i'm confused as to why Blachowicz is +220.
Dominick looked pretty good against jones but I think that's more of JJ slowing down instead of Reyes being great.

Jan is a live dog for sure. He has power in his hands, is durable as heck, and is coming off 3 really solid wins over good competition (Rockhold, Jacare, Corey Anderson)

I am also low key liking this fight to go over 2.5 rounds at -120.
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3 really solid wins is a bit of an over reach I think...
Jacare appears to be a beaten fighter and rockhold lost his chin , also the jacare fight was very close. Even Corey Anderson is a B+ , never really a top contender guy. I like Reyes alot here and am fairly confident with him in parlays
 
loller90278 said:
the more i tape, the more i'm confused as to why Blachowicz is +220.
Dominick looked pretty good against jones but I think that's more of JJ slowing down instead of Reyes being great.

Jan is a live dog for sure. He has power in his hands, is durable as heck, and is coming off 3 really solid wins over good competition (Rockhold, Jacare, Corey Anderson)

I am also low key liking this fight to go over 2.5 rounds at -120.
Click to expand...
I was shitted on earlier on the thread for suggesting the same you are, basically I dont think Reyes is as good as people think because all people can think about is the Jon Jones fight. But if you remove the Jon Jones fight, Reyes has looked absolutely average; his biggest victory being OSP and a razor thin decison against Volkan.

The only reason I dont put too much value on the Jon Jones fight is because Jon Jones has made his last 3 opponents look like all-stars when they are really average (including Anthony fucking Smith looked great). Santos and Smith are natural MW and looked fantastic against Jon Jones because this isnt the same Jon Jones that dominated the LHW division. He is tentative and allows his opponents to mount offensives against him, which isn the opposite of vintage Jon Jones. He is either not motivated to win or PEDs really did a number on him, regardless of what the reason is, he has looked so out of whack that he has made his opponents look amazing when they are not.

Plus, Volkan has a similar style than Jan and look how Reyes performed against him. Im not saying Blach will beat Reyes, Im saying is much closer than the odds say.
 
Ideanudge said:
Dawodu has little chance. Career kickboxer that is somewhat explosively built, will waste a lot of energy defending takedowns and getting back, then will be uncomfortable with how the blood has pumped into his muscles.
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I was searching for posts about this fight because I've thought Dawodu is rather nice value and after 6 pages I find this?
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Maybe my read is totally off... I'll watch more tape.
 
I was way too deep on edibles when I made the post about Costa subbing Izzy, that's not happening.

I can however see some of the rounds being close and Costa brute forcing takedowns towards the end in an attempt to secure the rounds.

I think Costa has a better gas tank than most people are giving him credit for, though. The Romero fight was incredibly high paced, and while he was more tired in round 3 than in round 1, he wasn't completely gassed out.

He landed a brutal head kick(that Romero ate, ofc) in round 3. He was still throwing and moving forward.
 
Sitting here watching this Diego Sanchez presser like, "wow, he's actually well spoken and seems to be much more coherent"

...and then he talks about how he's going to win his next 3 and fight Conor in his last fight on his deal. Also stated that his transformation is going to be biblical.

Will still sprinkle some on him, as I think the odds are slightly off.
 
Initially said:
I was way too deep on edibles when I made the post about Costa subbing Izzy, that's not happening.

I can however see some of the rounds being close and Costa brute forcing takedowns towards the end in an attempt to secure the rounds.

I think Costa has a better gas tank than most people are giving him credit for, though. The Romero fight was incredibly high paced, and while he was more tired in round 3 than in round 1, he wasn't completely gassed out.

He landed a brutal head kick(that Romero ate, ofc) in round 3. He was still throwing and moving forward.
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He gassed in a fight that he completely controlled the pace of. If you're slowing down that much when your opponent is standing against the fence allowing you to fight to your game plan, how much are you going to slow when you actually have to move a lot more to cut the cage on a much more mobile and active fighter?
 
stipeszn said:
He gassed in a fight that he completely controlled the pace of. If you're slowing down that much when your opponent is standing against the fence allowing you to fight to your game plan, how much are you going to slow when you actually have to move a lot more to cut the cage on a much more mobile and active fighter?
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Adensanya isn't as durable as Romero.

He will have to throw/land less strikes than he did against Romero to finish Adensanya.

I think Izzy will slow a bit as well after almost every flurry from Costa. Romero is just a freak.
 
Izzy has an absurd amount of kickboxing fights, but he has been KOd before. Gastelum hurt him without landing flush and I rate Costa power up there w Gastelum probably better with overall combos rather than 1 punch power. If Costa hurts him. He is much more equipped to swarm him. Overpower him. Finish him. If it gets past round 2. Izzy should pick him off and snipe him out fairly easy. I am in on Costa. Will play him by KO and finish. But will be ready to live bet adesanya as fight progresses. Im 60/40 Costa wins.
 
Initially said:
Adensanya isn't as durable as Romero.

He will have to throw/land less strikes than he did against Romero to finish Adensanya.

I think Izzy will slow a bit as well after almost every flurry from Costa. Romero is just a freak.
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He'll have to throw less to finish Adesanya but he'll have to throw a hell of a lot more to land on him. Romero allowed him to get his offense off, Adesanya will make that incredibly difficult, and will punish him with jabs the whole time as well.
 
TheFightDoctor said:
Izzy has an absurd amount of kickboxing fights, but he has been KOd before. Gastelum hurt him without landing flush and I rate Costa power up there w Gastelum probably better with overall combos rather than 1 punch power. If Costa hurts him. He is much more equipped to swarm him. Overpower him. Finish him. If it gets past round 2. Izzy should pick him off and snipe him out fairly easy. I am in on Costa. Will play him by KO and finish. But will be ready to live bet adesanya as fight progresses. Im 60/40 Costa wins.
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But can Costa close the distance the way Gastelum did? Kelvin has way quicker footwork than Costa.
 
Kyle Stephens said:
I was searching for posts about this fight because I've thought Dawodu is rather nice value and after 6 pages I find this?
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Maybe my read is totally off... I'll watch more tape.
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I went into tape wanting to bet Zub and came away very slightly favouring Hakeem.

Zub has the power advantage and the finishing upside especially early, but he does slow after the first round.

Hakeem starts slow and picks up and finds a rhythm as the fight progresses, I like that he mixes his combinations and targets well, finishs combinations with leg kicks, attacks the legs, body and head equally and Zub is lead leg heavy so I can see that being a big target for Hakeem.

Zub could just dead him early, Hakeem does have a questionable chin. If it goes all 3 rounds the fight probably comes dow to who wins the second as I think Zub takes first and Hakeem takes the last.

Hakeem has the out put advantage he lands almost double the strikes of Zub but I question Hakeems TDD, he's not bad at getting back to his feet but if he's getting repeatedly taken down he's going to struggle to look like the round winner.

Zub will probably have the bigger moments where Hakeem will score more points consistently.

Really a 50/50 with questions over both guys.
 
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