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UFC 253: Adesanya v Costa

Someone in ufc is trying get this guy going. They matched up khadis to win this fight... -170 is very reasonable. Im hopeful to get sub -150 lines by fight night. Im strangely very confident on khadis here
Maybe because he is still only 25 and LHW. He is kinda exciting when he goes balls to the wall lol. But im inclined to believe he might have one fight left or something. Dana is way more lenient when it comes to cutting fighters during covid
 
Need to watch more tape on Jan.

I know Reyes slows down significantly in rds 4/5. From what I remember of his last 5 round fight against Jacare, Jan slowed down a little bit too. But that was a grueling fight up against the fence the whole time.

We've seen Volkan take down Reyes, if Jan can do it when Reyes is rather tired in the championship rounds, it'll pose some problems.

I think Jan has been a dog in his last 6 or 7 fights, and the only loss out of those was to Santos. It was a clean TKO for Thiago, but Jan wasn't out cold.

They're both incredibly durable, I think it's dog or pass here. O2.5 looks pretty good too.
 
I definitely think Matthews ITD is worth a play. I will probably play his KO/Sub line when they drop depending on the value. I just checked bestfightodds.com and nothing is available on that yet.
Props just opened! Matthews ITD is sitting at +140. KO/TKO line is at +420, and sub line is at +330
 
Danilo Marques training with Kings MMA and Shogun... at least solid training partners.
1 week notice for both - I doubt the UFC is booking this fight for Marques to lose right? (p.s: I have watched no tape) =)
9 weeks ago - Marques was in the corner of Rua and Werdum in Abu Dhabi when they both won.

 
For what I saw in Costa's channel videos, he will try to pressure and then push Izzy against the cage so to explode with power from time to time. It makes a lot of sense and will probably work. That up close, Costa has the big advantage because of lower reach, and the dudes he worked with were strong yet weren't able to prevent him from pushing them against the cage. This will likely KO Izzy in the 1st round.
 
For what I saw in Costa's channel videos, he will try to pressure and then push Izzy against the cage so to explode with power from time to time. It makes a lot of sense and will probably work. That up close, Costa has the big advantage because of lower reach, and the dudes he worked with were strong yet weren't able to prevent him from pushing them against the cage. This will likely KO Izzy in the 1st round.

He also stated he'd mix in takedowns, to secure rounds, even though, "they make me tired".
 
where are all danilo Marques''s fights? i'v only seen one where he got starched quickly.
 
Costa/Izzy Over 1.5R at -240 seems pretty safe. Might play it if it gets closer to -200
 
Any books in Vegas that offer point handicap props?

Looking at Sanchez +3.5 like a goddamn degen
 
Very possible. Klein does look very impressive. Young has an injury that never will be 100% from a full knee sprain, he seems a little crazy and battles depression, yet I think the late call up on the muscle bound guy can affect him. Young can time the 1 2 and easily get Klein on his back I feel. Young has a background in kickboxing and seems durable so don't expect him to get KOd. Klein has gone 5 rounds, well 4 rounds in a 5 rounder and didn't loo too fatigued. Hes a physical specimen. But I think pressure and Klein on back foot could win for Young as Klein never fought striking that way. He only throws 2 punch combos. Low output, but very sharp n precise. I think 2 of 3 rounds young can pressure him get him against cage , Outland him. Ill b banking on him absorbing large strikes. I will hedge with Klein KO , but Young style is good for points , Klein can be taken down. Was controlled for 3 minutes in his last fight on ground before getting back up finally and showed his lightning quick left head kick for a KO , but the talent wasn't all that hes fighting. The guys ludovit beat, Young would beat 30 27 or ko them. Klein a KO fighter he KOd them. I have a feeling its Shane Young by Rear naked choke
I also have a feeling I bet him too early. Im gona get like +110 on young by fight night

Also , to add. Sure Young doesn't have much snap as hes more of a plodder. But dont be fooled. He got a KO 2 fights ago and last fight drilled Arnett at end of round and woukdve jumped on him with more time, possibly landing more bigger shots for a KO. Hes got power. As soon as Arnett came forward at ends of 2nd and 3rd rounds he got blasted. Klein comes forward. He dont want to be the guy backing up. By him coming forward he can walk into youngs shots also. Maybe Young gets KOd but I think he can eat shots even from an exceptional striker in klein
I agree, Klein's opposition has been pretty bad and Young would more than likely beat them too. But I doubt Young will be able to complete any take downs on Klein, as his take downs look pretty bad and rarely sets them up. Young could possibly take one round in the fight because his style is good for points but I doubt he will want to play that game with Klein for too long. Klein is fast, with good counter punches, and has power so its probably not a good idea for Young to push the pace so much against him because he is faster and with more power than him. I'm picking Klein via TKO or decision.
 
Dawodu returning from injury.

- I asked for top 10, top 15, UFC said after this one
- His stand up is very average, basic, I expect him to wrestle me hard, for him to shoot, we prepared for that
- I respect his power, but I'm a world champion kick boxer
- This is fight 80 for me
- I will bring the fight to him, he doesn't have the best gas tank, make sure he has to fight
- I'm not scared of anybody

 
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Dawodu returning from injury.

- I asked for top 10, top 15, UFC said after this one
- His stand up is very average, basic, I expect him to wrestle me hard, for him to shoot, we prepared for that
- I respect his power, but I'm a world champion kick boxer
- This is fight 80 for me
- I will bring the fight to him, he doesn't have the best gas tank, make sure he has to fight
- I'm not scared of anybody


Lol dude got finished by a bum in ufc debut but he isnt scared of anybody
 
Realistically, what would Diego's PTV be?

Very unlikely he'll be able to take Matthews down early.

Tire him against the fence, and hope to secure takedowns in rounds 2/3 if he survives that long?

Matthews -750 seems rather absurd.
 
Realistically, what would Diego's PTV be?

Very unlikely he'll be able to take Matthews down early.

Tire him against the fence, and hope to secure takedowns in rounds 2/3 if he survives that long?

Matthews -750 seems rather absurd.
Imo Diego is a bad match up for Jake, he has better cardio and good tdd.
Jake had trouble with bum meek and he isnt a ko artist too
DOG OR PASS ONLY
 
Dawodu has little chance. Career kickboxer that is somewhat explosively built, will waste a lot of energy defending takedowns and getting back, then will be uncomfortable with how the blood has pumped into his muscles.
 
Someone in ufc is trying get this guy going. They matched up khadis to win this fight... -170 is very reasonable. Im hopeful to get sub -150 lines by fight night. Im strangely very confident on khadis here

My take right now too. This feels like the UFC wants Khadis to win. I’m on his ML at -150 if it gets that low and If not, I’ll take his KO prop and FDNTGD

Klein is now -105 on MB
 
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My take right now too. This feels like the UFC wants Khadis to win. I’m on his ML at -150 if it gets that low and If not, I’ll take his KO prop and FDNTGD

Klein is now -105 on MB

i think they're wanting someone to stand and bang with Khadis -- win or lose. The UFC usually puts an exciting fight at the top of the broadcast and this is the first one of 254.

Early prelims: this one
Prelims: Knight vs Camur
Main card: Dawodu/Zubaira
 
Trying to get a read on Knight v Camur, not whole lot of footage. From what I gather Knight either KO's him inside a round or Camur wins by decision.
 
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