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UFC 253: Adesanya v Costa

I think I'm taking Klein here too. He's a southpaw and Young is Orthodox and Klein looks to be the slightly faster striker. Need to do more tape but I'm on Klein @ +100 and +105 on MB/Bov
 
Initially said:
@TrueAscension

Any parlay ideas for this weekend?

If you were in Vegas, and had 50-250$ to piss away on some long shot but feasible parlays, what would they be?
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My only read is Adesanya o1.5 bud sorry. I am taking Klein and Viera because a friend told me they are taking them hahaha
 
Costa's style is not sustainable for 5 rounds, maybe not even past 3.

His style is also tailor-made for Adesanya to exploit.

Costa doesn't really have one punch KO power, he just overwhelms people with relentless haymakers. I don't think Adesanya will wilt under the pressure. He is good enough to avoid what he needs to avoid and Costa will slow down at some point.

It's quite possible that Adesnya catches him early as well, imo.

I'm a huge fan of Costa and would love to see him as champ, but I'm betting on Adesanya.
 
I love the prop +200 Israel 4,5 or by dec,
Costa has two rounds to win this most likely, he may catch Israel and Israel could catch him, but I think he may be avoiding him more especially after facing Romero. Take his time, then pressure later on. No need to take a risk early on, and unless Costa just throws all IQ out the window and does not respect Israels counter striking I think Costa will be durable enough for it to go to the later rounds. Compared to Israels moneyline I think this holds good value anything over +125.
 
mmaday4day said:
Nice fifth place last week on DK
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Thank you! i had being struggling this year on DK it has being a brutal year and on DK this year.

I had 7 lineups three lineups were duds. And i mostly just hand crafted them after i complete my research. I was high on Walker. I only had one lineup with Spann and GM3. I wish i was high on chimaev more. I believe the hype train now lol.
Looks like i was wrong on GM3 sub line prediction.

For the main i do think Costa has can withstand the power by adesanya for the first two rounds or so i did watch the tape on Costa and romero that fight was amazing.
On paper adesanya could also win. But we shall see again i want to wait for the weigh ins this week first before deciding my final opinion.

The main fight match could be the fight of the night for sure.
 
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I legitimately think that with the help of Cejudo(believe it of not), Costa's TDs have gotten better.

I legitimately think he'll stalk Izzy with his striking, eat a few shots to get inside, and shoot for a takedown as early as round 1.

Costa is massive, and has better BJJ. I think if he can get Izzy to the ground, his strength advantage will show there immensely.

I know Romero tried a few TDs, and they didn't work, but he didn't set them up well. Izzy wont expect it from Costa.

I know it sounds crazy, saying that a fighter who fights like Costa will implement a new weapon that he's never used before in a title fight, but he's surrounded by good people who probably know his BJJ > if he can just get it there.

They also talked about securing takedowns at the end of rounds in Costa's blogs to have him steal rounds. Costa said something like, "I don't want to, it tires me" and his coaching staff just basically said to do it.

Izzy being on the bottom will tire him more than we've ever seen, so I'll probably be playing Costa sub/decision moreso than KO.

Bold take, but that's my read.
 
GoldenWolf87 said:
Thank you! i had being struggling this year on DK it has being a brutal year and on DK this year you need women's MMA. <Some slates>

I had 7 lineups three lineups were duds. And i mostly just hand crafted them after i completed my research. I was high on Walker. I only had one lineup with Spann and GM3. I wish i was high on chimaev more. I believe the hype train now lol.
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I wasn't far behind you (34th). DK can be tough sometimes, fantasy sports has a much different dynamic than betting. But I prefer playing DK over betting. I had the optimal lineup 2 months ago but had to split the 100k with 150 other players lol not the win I was hoping for but hey... maybe someday.
 
mmaday4day said:
I wasn't far behind you (34th). DK can be tough sometimes, fantasy sports has a much different dynamic than betting. But I prefer playing DK over betting. I had the optimal lineup 2 months ago but had to split the 100k with 150 other players lol not the win I was hoping for but hey... maybe someday.
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I am loving this week for DK MMA. I still think maybe we can fade Woman's MMA this week for DK problary we shall see its a big slate. I do like Eubanks vs Vieira in that one i think the oddmarks are a bit wrong to have Vieira as a favorite we shall see.
 
Initially said:
I legitimately think that with the help of Cejudo(believe it of not), Costa's TDs have gotten better.

I legitimately think he'll stalk Izzy with his striking, eat a few shots to get inside, and shoot for a takedown as early as round 1.

Costa is massive, and has better BJJ. I think if he can get Izzy to the ground, his strength advantage will show there immensely.

I know Romero tried a few TDs, and they didn't work, but he didn't set them up well. Izzy wont expect it from Costa.

I know it sounds crazy, saying that a fighter who fights like Costa will implement a new weapon that he's never used before in a title fight, but he's surrounded by good people who probably know his BJJ > if he can just get it there.

They also talked about securing takedowns at the end of rounds in Costa's blogs to have him steal rounds. Costa said something like, "I don't want to, it tires me" and his coaching staff just basically said to do it.

Izzy being on the bottom will tire him more than we've ever seen, so I'll probably be playing Costa sub/decision moreso than KO.

Bold take, but that's my read.
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Don't do it man, never bank on a fighter doing sth he has never done. Izzy's got great tdd too, so even if costa does try to get tds i doubt he completes them. He himself said it, it tires him. He doesn't have the cardio to follow that kind of gameplan. I'd advise you to bet costa's first/second rd prop.
 


Diego is nuts smh. Still wouldn't play justin bieber at that price
 
FimbulFightPicks said:
I love the prop +200 Israel 4,5 or by dec,
Costa has two rounds to win this most likely, he may catch Israel and Israel could catch him, but I think he may be avoiding him more especially after facing Romero. Take his time, then pressure later on. No need to take a risk early on, and unless Costa just throws all IQ out the window and does not respect Israels counter striking I think Costa will be durable enough for it to go to the later rounds. Compared to Israels moneyline I think this holds good value anything over +125.
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Yeah, that is how I bet the ME as well. Honestly, I'm less worried that Costa will Catch Izzy than I am that Costa will be overly aggressive (throwing all IQ out the window) and get KO:ed within three.
 
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It looks like Eubank odds are shortening for anyone who wants to jump on them while they are still +150
 
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Klein's striking looks good, punches are a bit wide but a HECK of a left high kick -- reminiscent of crocop actually. Wondering how his TDD is since shane young is a pressure fighter who I would imagine would use grappling in his approach.

i am LOVING Khadis/Marques 2½ -115u. Don't see this fight going over 2 rounds as Khadis is pretty much kill or be killed within the first round.
 
Broe. said:
Knight seems pretty durable and it looks like to me that Camur actually does not have a lot of power in his hands, he hit Ledet clean a couple of times but Ledet wasn't even fazed. I would urge people not to bet Camur as a favourite, he is just too green imo.
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IDK man, Camur has definitely better cardio and more varied striking. Knight reminds me of Menifield, all muscles but is very stiff and looks like he lacks mobility, something that I think Camur can take advantage of, particularly because he likes to push the pace and has a decent chin. At 23, I think Camur will still continue to improve, at least a little bit in every fight; Knight hasnt shown a lot of improvement from his first appearance at the DWCS and at 32 is plateauing already.
Camur opened at -130 but right now at -185 I wouldnt put a lot of money in there. Possibly Camur ITD at +150 might be my move.
 
loller90278 said:
Klein's striking looks good, punches are a bit wide but a HECK of a left high kick -- reminiscent of crocop actually. Wondering how his TDD is since shane young is a pressure fighter who I would imagine would use grappling in his approach.

i am LOVING Khadis/Marques 2½ -115u. Don't see this fight going over 2 rounds as Khadis is pretty much kill or be killed within the first round.
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Khadis looked so shit in his last fight, even that round 1 or bust seemed to have left his system. I'm confused why his opponent is a moderate dog, guy is bigger and trains with good guys and has finishing abilities. At this rate fading khadis is a winning strat especially at + odds.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
Khadis looked so shit in his last fight, even that round 1 or bust seemed to have left his system. I'm confused why his opponent is a moderate dog, guy is bigger and trains with good guys and has finishing abilities. At this rate fading khadis is a winning strat especially at + odds.
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because he hasn't fought in 2 years and his opposition has been terrible
 
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