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UFC 253: Adesanya v Costa

TrueAscension said:
Jan's tough man, a decision is not out of the realm of possibility and you'll probably get good odds.
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<mma4>
Initial feel was ITD. I probably should do some more tape on Jan but you’re probably right. Hopefully it’s in the +500 or better range
 
ill800 said:
Santos and Reyes are both good fighters. Jon Jones didn’t make them look amazing

Anthony smith looked terrible against jones
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I'm just saying, the odds dont reflect how close the fights are. Santos' best victories are at MW (Hermanson, Anthony Smith, and Manuwa) granted, those are great victories in MW but he was also DESTROYED against Mousasi (no shame in that, but showed very lackluster ground game) and I cant shake off the fact that was submitted by Eric fucking Spicely. In other words, Glover already knows his PTV here and is not as hard as odds makers are making it out to be, particularly because Teixeira has used his ground game in his more recent fights.
Again, I'm not saying they are are bad fighters, they are not, they are very good. I'm not saying they will lose either, just that the fight is much closer than the odds suggest. Also, I do believe Jon Jones makes them look better than they are because of how hesitant he has become and how much he allows his opponents to mount offensives. Even Anthony Smith looked very than he actually he is against Jon Jones.
 
careto said:
I'm just saying, the odds dont reflect how close the fights are. Santos' best victories are at MW (Hermanson, Anthony Smith, and Manuwa) granted, those are great victories in MW but he was also DESTROYED against Mousasi (no shame in that, but showed very lackluster ground game) and I cant shake off the fact that was submitted by Eric fucking Spicely. In other words, Glover already knows his PTV here and is not as hard as odds makers are making it out to be, particularly because Teixeira has used his ground game in his more recent fights.
Again, I'm not saying they are are bad fighters, they are not, they are very good. I'm not saying they will lose either, just that the fight is much closer than the odds suggest. Also, I do believe Jon Jones makes them look better than they are because of how hesitant he has become and how much he allows his opponents to mount offensives. Even Anthony Smith looked very than he actually he is against Jon Jones.
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Manuwa was at LHW, and his best win is easily Jan by KO
 
BigSteve said:
Manuwa was at LHW, and his best win is easily Jan by KO
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A victory over Manuwa is nothing to write home about TBH at MW or LHW. And yes, his biggest victory is Jan by KO. He also has a suspect ground game and was submitted by Eric Spicely, of all people. Again, that was a couple of years ago but we havent seen his ground game ever since, and Glover has taken his fights to the ground in his past fights.
 
Wow, I was expecting 3.5 to be about the even line but it’s 2.5... we really expecting costa or adesanya to get ko’d within 2.5? I dont think it will be a crash course and if it somehow ends up inside 2.5 it would be Costa doin the deed imo. Costa says that he plans to GNP Izzy, but man I don’t really see how he takes him down. He’s never really shown double legs or single legs, so maybe he plans to tie him up? Also, costa submission is at a crazy price considering that he is a black belt in BJJ and club subs have been becoming meta lately.
Looking to go big on over 2.5, Paulo moneyline, Paulo by decision. I hope we see Izzy take a beating for 4 decisive rounds
 
Crimp_Keeper said:
lol that crossed my mind but you never know. Diego might win by DQ or something crazy again <6>

definitely putting money on Reyes ITD. He’s got such excellent striking I think he’ll be able to put Jan away in the 2nd/3rd.
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Do you think a Jake Matthews ITD or KO/TKO prop might be worth it? Right now the moneyline is only opened on my book, still waiting on the props.
 
ianj98 said:
Do you think a Jake Matthews ITD or KO/TKO prop might be worth it? Right now the moneyline is only opened on my book, still waiting on the props.
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I definitely think Matthews ITD is worth a play. I will probably play his KO/Sub line when they drop depending on the value. I just checked bestfightodds.com and nothing is available on that yet.
 
I'm liking Alex da Silva at +250. I think he has a chance to use his superior grappling and grind out a victory over Riddel.
 
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Adesanya to win in round 4, 5, or win by decision: +200

Anyone see value in the alternate round props?

Some good wiggle room for hedging too: Costa to win in round 1, 2, or 3: +250
 
This will deadass be my last post here until probably next year, it will be a while. This place reminds me of the reddit sportsbook subreddit where there really is only a handful of people in here who know what they’re talking about (except that there’s probably way more sharper people compared to hive mind reddit) a whole lot of arguing/rambling and not enough helping/contribution. I know I ramble like a retard sometimes and that was especially a result of my tilting/ bad habits messing me up...

I’ve been at this gambling shit for about 1.5 years and I’m luckily up due to some lucky parlaying. Gambling has caused me a lot of stress and I think it’s at the point for me where the stress overrides the fun. It’s hard to explain, but sometimes I wish I could go back to the good old days when I couldn’t even interpret odds. Now, whenever I hear a match up I wanna know how I would like to bet it or speculate what the odds are gonna be instead of just looking forward to to the fight. Also, as I mentioned earlier yeah I’m really starting to see why parlaying is bad as I pretty much only parlay. Long story short, don’t parlay because it’s literally detrimental to your bankroll and handicapping skills.

Last thing before I go, bet the house on TKZ. I mean this.
 
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Vitor Apologist said:
This will deadass be my last post here until probably next year, it will be a while. This place reminds me of the reddit sportsbook subreddit where there really is only a handful of people in here who know what they’re talking about (except that there’s probably way more sharper people compared to hive mind reddit) a whole lot of arguing/rambling and not enough helping/contribution. I know I ramble like a retard sometimes and that was especially a result of my tilting/ bad habits messing me up...

I’ve been at this gambling shit for about 1.5 years and I’m luckily up due to some lucky parlaying. Gambling has caused me a lot of stress and I think it’s at the point for me where the stress overrides the fun. It’s hard to explain, but sometimes I wish I could go back to the good old days when I couldn’t even interpret odds. Now, whenever I hear a match up I wanna know how I would like to bet it or speculate what the odds are gonna be instead of just looking forward to to the fight. Also, as I mentioned earlier yeah I’m really starting to see why parlaying is bad as I pretty much only parlay. Long story short, don’t parlay because it’s literally detrimental to your bankroll and handicapping skills.

Last thing before I go, bet the house on TKZ. I mean this.
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Sorry to hear you are leaving us.

It sucks when the passion is sucked out of something you enjoy. It happened with me with poker, I use to love it but after working the tables for multiple hours a day it drained my soul. Being surrounded by miserable people and feeding of thier addictions I decided to quit even though I was making some serious money.

*Agree about the TKZ
 
I liked the footage what i saw from Costa. Izzy could face lets say issues. The rest of the card i need to do more research.
 
Broe. said:
Camur seems like the perfect opponent for Knight to knock out after Knight loses the first round convincingly.
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Yeah. Camur looks like the minute-winner, but has mediocre defense and Knight's got more power.
 
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