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UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 Discussion

I think we'll see some improvements from DC because of Mark Henry guiding him more for this fight but I'm still leaning towards Stipe via jab+movement+TD defense+cardio
 
Jucao and Conan Silveira talk in this moment on Combate channel Brazil that Cigano is put wrestling in this fight. I like this. On the feet is 50 50 but Cigano have better wrestling and experience. Im on Cigano 1u now.
 
matthew55 said:
Can you give your thoughts on Herrig/ Jandiroba..noticed it was one of your bigger bets,,and do you think big money will come in on O'Malley? I can see that too considering he's got the hype
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NewLockGuy said:
Sadistics, what do you think about Jandiroba finishing inside the distance? It sits at +200 and I think I'm going to take a stab at it. Love her takedowns and her BJJ looks really great.
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Jandiroba has some of the best BJJ in WMMA and is very positionally sound. I quite like her TDs, or at least the setups, she does well with such a limited striking arsenal. Herrig hasn't faced many grapplers, the best was Markos on TUF and she got tapped. She lacks getups and even on top isn't great, Waterson won most of a round from underneath her. My only real worry is Jandiroba getting stuck on the feet or in the clinch, gassing from failed TDs. I wanted a bit wider on her sub line which I prefer over ITD as she doesn't land much gnp. Don't mind a stab on it near +250 but I'm sticking to ML.

I do still think O'Malley money comes in but if it doesn't I'm fine to LB. Did end up taking .5u Dodson +245.
 
Sadistics said:
Jandiroba has some of the best BJJ in WMMA and is very positionally sound. I quite like her TDs, or at least the setups, she does well with such a limited striking arsenal. Herrig hasn't faced many grapplers, the best was Markos on TUF and she got tapped. She lacks getups and even on top isn't great, Waterson won most of a round from underneath her. My only real worry is Jandiroba getting stuck on the feet or in the clinch, gassing from failed TDs. I wanted a bit wider on her sub line which I prefer over ITD as she doesn't land much gnp. Don't mind a stab on it near +250 but I'm sticking to ML.

I do still think O'Malley money comes in but if it doesn't I'm fine to LB. Did end up taking .5u Dodson +245.
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much obliged
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
I have had my eye on Dodson from the moment he opened, and every time his price improves I keep thinking this is a must have since he has a clear striking advantage and elite takedown D and get up game.


But then I watched his fight vs Zach Makovsky where Fun Size goes 0/17 on takedowns...but man that was close— Dodson was putting all of his energy into takedown defense and opening the door for Fun Size to land some clean strikes and make the fight very competitive.

And that was prime Dodson...now Dodson at age 35 needs to fight a better version of Fun Size in a small cage? It seems like a dicey proposition. Maybe he can eke out another decision, maybe he can land a bomb and finish. But I feel this is gonna be a grindy + frustrating fight where Dodson defends takedowns but struggles to stand out striking somewhat like JDS vs Blaydes.

At these prices I wouldn’t blame anybody for taking a stab at Dodson, but fading wrestlers with elite cardio who can chain takedowns tends to end in pain and frustration so I am personally passing
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Yeah it's completely an odds based play. He just has a better shot than the odds say he does imo.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
@TrueAscension
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@Kamais_Ookin

inserting my notes in Bold

TLDR “Stipe could knock him out or DC could win by decision but im right either way”
Daniel Cormier (-115) vs. Stipe Miocic (-105): Cormier by decision

I am pumped for this one, and I hope it is as exciting as their last fight in which they landed more than 300 combined significant strikes. That is not a stat you will see often in the heavyweight division, but these guys are the best there is, and this should be fun as long as it lasts. Cormier won their first fight with a first-round knockout and Miocic won the rematch with a fourth-round stoppage. Cormier outlanded Miocic by nearly 100 strikes in the second fight and was up on all scorecards going into Round 4. Miocic found success with body shots that led to knockout. I think the current champ is probably still more likely to win this fight by knockout, but Cormier is more likely to win on the scorecards or possibly a submission.

“TLDR: Vera could win by sub or O’Malley TKO
so I’m right either way”
Sean O'Malley (-330) vs. Marlon Vera (+270): O'Malley by TKO

I liked what I saw from O'Malley in his last two fights, but they were both ended in Round 1, and Vera presents step-up in competition. I think O'Malley is the more dangerous fighter and the better striker who should be landing the harder shots and more volume. Vera can keep it close on the feet and could have success in the clinch, as well as on the ground. I think a rear-naked choke or a guillotine submission are the most likely paths to victory for Vera, although O'Malley should be able to avoid those outcomes. His striking looks legit and much more dangerous than it was before his two-year layoff.

TLDR : “Rozen could TKO but JDS could win a decision. I’m right either way”
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-155) vs. Junior Dos Santos (+135): Dos Santos by decision

Dos Santos is the better boxer but Rozenstruik is the more powerful striker with more tools in that realm. Dos Santos has a suspect chin these days and any big shot from Jairzinho could put him out. I think it is knockout-or-bust for Jairzinho and I don't like laying juice on those type of fighters. I think Dos Santos could get a knockout of his own and he will have success with his boxing if he can avoid the big shot. I also see him going for takedowns and wearing Rozenstruik down, taking the power away from his big shots. If Dos Santos stays conscious, he gets his hand raised.

Merab Dvalishvili (-180) vs. John Dodson (+160): Dvalishvili by decision

Dvalishvili is a new breed of wrestler. He is nonstop, and his pace is impressive. He has had five UFC fights and all have gone to decision. He still averages four significant strikes per minute along with a crazy 8.67 takedowns per 15 minutes. Dodson is going to be the better striker and much more likely to get a knockout, but Dvalishvili's pace is enough to beat him on the feet if he doesn't get knocked out. But it is the wrestling that sets Dvalishvili apart from basically everybody else, even against a guy with great takedown defense like Dodson. I still expect him to be taken down multiple times each round.

Magomed Ankalaev (-300) vs. Ion Cutelaba (+250): Fight canceled Thursday

TLDR : “Miller could finish early or lose. Either way I’m right”
Vinc Pinchel (-125) vs. Jim Miller (+105): Pichel by decision

These are two older guys who are still performing at a pretty high level. Miller is the younger guy in this and he is the better and more dangerous grappler. I think he could also have the better boxing. Pichel is the better wrestler and he has more power on the feet as well. I think he probably is more likely to take over late if it goes the distance. I think Miller will look better and could possibly get an early finish, but Pichel has the edge if he withstands an early barrage.

Livia Souza (-150) vs. Ashley Yoder (+130): Souza by decision

I think Souza is the more technical and dangerous striker and the better wrestler. Yoder is going to have the size advantage on the feet and she could win the striking battles with volume. I also think Yoder could be the better all-around grappler, but it is close. There will be a lot of grappling. I love betting Yoder at plus-money but I don't know that I can do it in this one because I see Souza being the aggressor and not giving Yoder the space that she needs to work with on the feet. I don't know that Yoder can consistently get takedowns, either.

Parker Porter (-125) vs. Chris Daukaus (+105): Porter by TKO

Porter looks like he is going to be the bigger fighter. He is a big boy, while Daukaus looks like he could cut to 185 pounds. Daukaus is the better striker, but he is going to need to keep this striking or get a knockout to have a shot. Porter is the more well-rounded fighter and I think he could get the fight to the mat and have success in top control. Porter doesn't look as dangerous as he should be, so I could see him not finishing and maybe getting caught on the feet if Daukaus can get back to the feet. Porter just has more ways to win this fight and should be able to use his size advantage to get this fight to the mat.

Virna Jandriroba (-310) vs. Felice Herrig (+255): Jandiroba by decision

Herrig is coming back from a torn ACL and she is now 35 years old. I think she will still be the better striker and the stronger fighter. She usually has the grappling edge and that won't be the case Saturday. I think this fight will mainly take place on the ground and both fighters could have their moments, but I favor Jandiroba because I think she could get a submission at some point. Her lone loss was to Herrig's friend and training partner, Carla Esparza, so maybe she has some solid insight. If she wasn't coming back from the ACL, I would probably take a small shot on Herrig. I just don't know that she can be trusted.

Herbert Burns (-260) vs. Daniel Pineda (+220): Burns by submission

Pineda is the much more experienced fighter and could keep this close on the feet. He has 41 total fights and 18 of his wins are by submission. And he has zero decision wins. Burns is going to be the better grappler and I think he might be the better striker as well. This is a great matchup for Burns and I think he gets a submission win like the UFC wants here.

T.J. Brown (-170) vs. Danny Chavez (+150): Brown by submission

There isn't a lot of footage on Chavez, but he looks to be a striker and his kicks look like the best part of his game. Aside from a possible guillotine, I don't see him having any real success on the ground. Brown is aggressive on the feet as well, so I think he wins on the feet just with volume and pressure. He could get a knockout, but he can get takedowns and have a lot of success with ground-and-pound or work his way to a submission such as his specialty arm triangle. I don't see why Brown would want to strike a lot when that is where the danger will be, but I would say this is knockout or bust for Chavez.

Kai Kamaka (-175) vs. Tony Kelley (+155): Kamaka by decision

This fight was added late in the week but it should be entertaining. Kamaka just fought a couple weeks ago and he looked pretty good. He looks strong and fast at 25 and he has some good boxing and overall striking. Kelley last fought over a year ago and won with a submission. His cardio is a concern, so a longer fight favors Kamaka. I favor Kamaka in the striking though and I will take him because of all the unknowns with Kelley.
 
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rewatching the fight miocic has a really good chin, he was getting tagged all throughout the first 3 rounds super lucky he didnt get knocked out. kept leaving his chin exposed but just ate everything. kind of have a hard time seeing miocic win a decision because ufc and everyone want dc plus the volume. +145 seems like no value tho on the ko mite hit round 4 and 5 props
 
Sadistics said:
Jandiroba has some of the best BJJ in WMMA and is very positionally sound. I quite like her TDs, or at least the setups, she does well with such a limited striking arsenal. Herrig hasn't faced many grapplers, the best was Markos on TUF and she got tapped. She lacks getups and even on top isn't great, Waterson won most of a round from underneath her. My only real worry is Jandiroba getting stuck on the feet or in the clinch, gassing from failed TDs. I wanted a bit wider on her sub line which I prefer over ITD as she doesn't land much gnp. Don't mind a stab on it near +250 but I'm sticking to ML.

I do still think O'Malley money comes in but if it doesn't I'm fine to LB. Did end up taking .5u Dodson +245.
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thanks for posting that buckley over last week
 
TrueAscension said:
@Kamais_Ookin

inserting my notes in Bold

TLDR “Stipe could knock him out or DC could win by decision but im right either way”
Daniel Cormier (-115) vs. Stipe Miocic (-105): Cormier by decision

I am pumped for this one, and I hope it is as exciting as their last fight in which they landed more than 300 combined significant strikes. That is not a stat you will see often in the heavyweight division, but these guys are the best there is, and this should be fun as long as it lasts. Cormier won their first fight with a first-round knockout and Miocic won the rematch with a fourth-round stoppage. Cormier outlanded Miocic by nearly 100 strikes in the second fight and was up on all scorecards going into Round 4. Miocic found success with body shots that led to knockout. I think the current champ is probably still more likely to win this fight by knockout, but Cormier is more likely to win on the scorecards or possibly a submission.

“TLDR: Vera could win by sub or O’Malley TKO
so I’m right either way”
Sean O'Malley (-330) vs. Marlon Vera (+270): O'Malley by TKO

I liked what I saw from O'Malley in his last two fights, but they were both ended in Round 1, and Vera presents step-up in competition. I think O'Malley is the more dangerous fighter and the better striker who should be landing the harder shots and more volume. Vera can keep it close on the feet and could have success in the clinch, as well as on the ground. I think a rear-naked choke or a guillotine submission are the most likely paths to victory for Vera, although O'Malley should be able to avoid those outcomes. His striking looks legit and much more dangerous than it was before his two-year layoff.

TLDR : “Rozen could TKO but JDS could win a decision. I’m right either way”
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-155) vs. Junior Dos Santos (+135): Dos Santos by decision

Dos Santos is the better boxer but Rozenstruik is the more powerful striker with more tools in that realm. Dos Santos has a suspect chin these days and any big shot from Jairzinho could put him out. I think it is knockout-or-bust for Jairzinho and I don't like laying juice on those type of fighters. I think Dos Santos could get a knockout of his own and he will have success with his boxing if he can avoid the big shot. I also see him going for takedowns and wearing Rozenstruik down, taking the power away from his big shots. If Dos Santos stays conscious, he gets his hand raised.

Merab Dvalishvili (-180) vs. John Dodson (+160): Dvalishvili by decision

Dvalishvili is a new breed of wrestler. He is nonstop, and his pace is impressive. He has had five UFC fights and all have gone to decision. He still averages four significant strikes per minute along with a crazy 8.67 takedowns per 15 minutes. Dodson is going to be the better striker and much more likely to get a knockout, but Dvalishvili's pace is enough to beat him on the feet if he doesn't get knocked out. But it is the wrestling that sets Dvalishvili apart from basically everybody else, even against a guy with great takedown defense like Dodson. I still expect him to be taken down multiple times each round.

Magomed Ankalaev (-300) vs. Ion Cutelaba (+250): Fight canceled Thursday

TLDR : “Miller could finish early or lose. Either way I’m right”
Vinc Pinchel (-125) vs. Jim Miller (+105): Pichel by decision

These are two older guys who are still performing at a pretty high level. Miller is the younger guy in this and he is the better and more dangerous grappler. I think he could also have the better boxing. Pichel is the better wrestler and he has more power on the feet as well. I think he probably is more likely to take over late if it goes the distance. I think Miller will look better and could possibly get an early finish, but Pichel has the edge if he withstands an early barrage.

Livia Souza (-150) vs. Ashley Yoder (+130): Souza by decision

I think Souza is the more technical and dangerous striker and the better wrestler. Yoder is going to have the size advantage on the feet and she could win the striking battles with volume. I also think Yoder could be the better all-around grappler, but it is close. There will be a lot of grappling. I love betting Yoder at plus-money but I don't know that I can do it in this one because I see Souza being the aggressor and not giving Yoder the space that she needs to work with on the feet. I don't know that Yoder can consistently get takedowns, either.

Parker Porter (-125) vs. Chris Daukaus (+105): Porter by TKO

Porter looks like he is going to be the bigger fighter. He is a big boy, while Daukaus looks like he could cut to 185 pounds. Daukaus is the better striker, but he is going to need to keep this striking or get a knockout to have a shot. Porter is the more well-rounded fighter and I think he could get the fight to the mat and have success in top control. Porter doesn't look as dangerous as he should be, so I could see him not finishing and maybe getting caught on the feet if Daukaus can get back to the feet. Porter just has more ways to win this fight and should be able to use his size advantage to get this fight to the mat.

Virna Jandriroba (-310) vs. Felice Herrig (+255): Jandiroba by decision

Herrig is coming back from a torn ACL and she is now 35 years old. I think she will still be the better striker and the stronger fighter. She usually has the grappling edge and that won't be the case Saturday. I think this fight will mainly take place on the ground and both fighters could have their moments, but I favor Jandiroba because I think she could get a submission at some point. Her lone loss was to Herrig's friend and training partner, Carla Esparza, so maybe she has some solid insight. If she wasn't coming back from the ACL, I would probably take a small shot on Herrig. I just don't know that she can be trusted.

Herbert Burns (-260) vs. Daniel Pineda (+220): Burns by submission

Pineda is the much more experienced fighter and could keep this close on the feet. He has 41 total fights and 18 of his wins are by submission. And he has zero decision wins. Burns is going to be the better grappler and I think he might be the better striker as well. This is a great matchup for Burns and I think he gets a submission win like the UFC wants here.

T.J. Brown (-170) vs. Danny Chavez (+150): Brown by submission

There isn't a lot of footage on Chavez, but he looks to be a striker and his kicks look like the best part of his game. Aside from a possible guillotine, I don't see him having any real success on the ground. Brown is aggressive on the feet as well, so I think he wins on the feet just with volume and pressure. He could get a knockout, but he can get takedowns and have a lot of success with ground-and-pound or work his way to a submission such as his specialty arm triangle. I don't see why Brown would want to strike a lot when that is where the danger will be, but I would say this is knockout or bust for Chavez.

Kai Kamaka (-175) vs. Tony Kelley (+155): Kamaka by decision

This fight was added late in the week but it should be entertaining. Kamaka just fought a couple weeks ago and he looked pretty good. He looks strong and fast at 25 and he has some good boxing and overall striking. Kelley last fought over a year ago and won with a submission. His cardio is a concern, so a longer fight favors Kamaka. I favor Kamaka in the striking though and I will take him because of all the unknowns with Kelley.
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lol this is great, definitely gotta take sportsline with a grain of salt
 
Ya im hearing thru source. Souza is fighting hurt...
Yoder currently +161 on my book
 
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