UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 Discussion

[DonQ94]

Saw Kai Kamaka fight recently in one of the LFA shows. Fast and solid striking game and a Hawaiian chin. Also got decent experience with fights in Bellator. He should win fairly comfortably against Kelley.

 

[BigSteve]

I’d prefer FDGTD 1.50. Paying 0.06 for covering both subs.

Suprised honestly the odds have gone from 1.36 to 1.50. I thought it’d be lined around 1.25 or so. Small cage and both fights ended inside the distance, yes maybe cormier was on his way to a dec, but still I would not play 2.50 for decision, way too low.

Its still at 1.36 on my book

 

[Danis_champ]

Rumor in here Brazil that Livinha is going to fight injured. If news i put here...

are u trying to get better odds on souza? where is your source? whop said when and where? if you don't go into further details then better shut up

 

[TrueAscension]

Do we not have an official bets thread? Trying to tail @Sadistics over here wtfff

 

[Tirimasuperman]

are u trying to get better odds on souza? where is your source? whop said when and where? if you don't go into further details then better shut up

Tbf someone said something like this about Matt Mitrione not taking Timothy Johnson seriously in last week's Bellator thread and they ended up being correct (Mitrione usually comes in at 250ish, last fight he came in 265+)

Of course it's possible that these people heard wrong or are lying, but they seem to be right more often than not

 

[FimbulFightPicks]

Its still at 1.36 on my book

Its on bet365. Was 1.36, then 1.40, then 1.50. I thought 1.36 was decent, closed my bet with a small loss, and now rebet it again pretty big. 1.50 is a very big suprise, I´d much rather do that then pick a fighter if with a lean. At worst can probably close it as we get closer if you like.

 

[FimbulFightPicks]

Do we not have an official bets thread? Trying to tail @Sadistics over here wtfff

Second that. Sadistics is very generous being a big shot, still so humble, sharing bets, and all his wisdom and knowlegde. One of the best guys around both as a bettor and as a human being. Perfect contradiction to the name actually.
But to anyone just blindly tailing him beware not betting it down too low, as sadistics gets crazy good lines often, might only want to do a few of the plays or at least not just blindly bet 100% of the bets all the time, I´´m sure you know that TrueAscension, this is more for all the lurkers etc. As there may be no value left on some of the lines,or he may only have taken a stab at some plays due to odds getting too out of line. If I were to follow completely then might be a good idea to either use it for confidence/guidelines - or bet proportionate, so if he makes 1600 dollar and 300 dollar bets, then i.e bet 160, and 30, or turn it to percentages of your bankroll etc.

 

[Tirimasuperman]

Anyone else think Daniel Pineda might be worth a stab?

The guy clearly does not give a fuck. Popped for steroids in the fucking PFL, will go to ground with fighters who are clearly better down there than he is, clear power given what he did to Movlid Khaybulaev (and ridiculous handspeed too). While most fighters who struggle with Herbert Burns on the feet do so because they're worried about his ground game and therefore keeping it on the feet (becoming tentative because they're wary of giving up a takedown, which keeps their hands too low, which gets them knocked down/out), the fact that Pineda straight up does not care about his grappling credentials may well be a blessing in disguise which gets him the win on the feet

Admittedly got the idea on this one from @Gugabe's latest write-up, but watching Pineda's tape it feels like people are writing him off for what he used to be rather than what he is (like fading Robbie Lawler on his return to the UFC because he lost to... Wow, Robbie Lawler's initial UFC losses aged REALLY well)

 

[TrueAscension]

Second that. Sadistics is very generous being a big shot, still so humble, sharing bets, and all his wisdom and knowlegde. One of the best guys around both as a bettor and as a human being. Perfect contradiction to the name actually.
But to anyone just blindly tailing him beware not betting it down too low, as sadistics gets crazy good lines often, might only want to do a few of the plays or at least not just blindly bet 100% of the bets all the time, I´´m sure you know that TrueAscension, this is more for all the lurkers etc. As there may be no value left on some of the lines,or he may only have taken a stab at some plays due to odds getting too out of line. If I were to follow completely then might be a good idea to either use it for confidence/guidelines - or bet proportionate, so if he makes 1600 dollar and 300 dollar bets, then i.e bet 160, and 30, or turn it to percentages of your bankroll etc.

picking winners is picking winners brother and every time I pick against him I end up kicking myself

 

[BigSteve]

I remember when I first joined here, I would do my plays and occasionally blindly tail Sadistic on a play I have done 0 research on. Would lose like 5 weeks on a row then just stoped blindly tailing hahah. Right now you can get away with it as the man is on fire.

It goes without saying that the man has incredible leans, I get a lil nervous when we are on opposite sides but on any given day any on of us could be right.

 

[Kazda1]

For the record I also think there's some value in Felice as a moderate-heavy dog since she's generally pretty scrambly, has decent enough TDD, solid top game and a the better striking, but not a ton since Michelle Waterson took her down and held here there without too much issue. Fight Goes To Decision at -205 seems pretty safe since I can't see Felice getting subbed, but I also don't play lines that steep so won't be something I personally get on

And as I put in the Futures thread I'm big on Dodson - Strong enough wrestler that he should be able to nullify Merab's wrestling, doesn't have cardio issues, and should be able to beat Merab on the feet pretty easily through having an actual striking game (and a fuckton of power)

I'm happy someone else shares the sentiment on Herrig. I snagged her at +225 and the price is improving, so I'll go back and hammer her again probably. I just don't think people give her enough credit for not being a willing participant in someone's obvious game of trying to bully her into bad grappling exchanges that won't benefit her. I like that she's physically strong for her size and she's a better striker than what most people are going to give her credit for. She's arguably fought the better competition between the two, and most of those fights she lost were relatively close. Jandiroba got taken down a few times herself against Esparza - and I have to think Felice is going to give Jandiroba something for her troubles in getting close enough to try and grapple.

So I taped the Chris Daukaus v Parker Porter fight and uhhhh... Yeah. It's a standard Heavyweight shitshow

Snipped......

To be honest the no sleep thing on a newborn is probably overrated. He's going to have a few days more than likely of quarantining in Vegas to sleep uninterrupted before the fight (if he isn't already doing so now). It just comes down to whether or not he gasses. Even still I'll take my chances with Porter seeing as though it seems as if he connects enough, Daukaus is going down ITD. Daukaus is just there to be tagged. Porter looks to be the more polished between the two. -125 and improving price on Bovada is a gift right now as far as I'm concerned. Porter ITD and by TKO/KO looking lovely also.

is there a site out there that predicts line movement/ who the money is coming in on?

Someone mentioned bestfightodds, but I was going to say if you're an Android user there was an app made by ZcodeSystem that's "somewhat" free that I like using for NFL bets. It's really helpful to see where money is going in the hour or two leading up to kickoff of a game. Problem is the full version of the app was pricey last I remember. They do have a section for the UFC which wasn't there before and I'm just seeing that now. I'll check it out to see if it's useful for this weekend.





On another note, does anyone have ANYTHING worth noting on Danny Chavez?

 

[Monster Meat]

God I really hate this card for betting. Might just lay all my money I would've spent on this card on Stipe. I don't see how DC wins here unless Stipe acts as timid as he did for most of pt 2.

wow you would think stipe is a 3-1 fav. I like Cormier but I won’t say it’s going to be easy either way. One thing is even though stipe won the last fight he was getting thoroughly dominated until those body shots in round 4. I think cormier mixes it up more in this fight and uses more of his wrestling.

 

[marcus82]

Although DC is the better wrestler Stipe won’t be easy to take down. A wrestle heavy game plan could really lead to DC emptying the gas tank much earlier

 

[BigSteve]

Anyone else think Daniel Pineda might be worth a stab?

The guy clearly does not give a fuck. Popped for steroids in the fucking PFL, will go to ground with fighters who are clearly better down there than he is, clear power given what he did to Movlid Khaybulaev (and ridiculous handspeed too). While most fighters who struggle with Herbert Burns on the feet do so because they're worried about his ground game and therefore keeping it on the feet (becoming tentative because they're wary of giving up a takedown, which keeps their hands too low, which gets them knocked down/out), the fact that Pineda straight up does not care about his grappling credentials may well be a blessing in disguise which gets him the win on the feet

Admittedly got the idea on this one from @Gugabe's latest write-up, but watching Pineda's tape it feels like people are writing him off for what he used to be rather than what he is (like fading Robbie Lawler on his return to the UFC because he lost to... Wow, Robbie Lawler's initial UFC losses aged REALLY well)

100%. Burns is too green to play at these odds in my opinion. Pineda is a real veteran I think he is better everywhere minus maybe the straight sub game. But even there he is the same as Burns, has a very dangerous guard.

 

[Tirimasuperman]

Has DC EVER successfully wrestled for 5 rounds?

Dude is only getting older, Stipe knows the body shots work now, kind of feels like no matter what happens we're getting a late Stipe KO

DC has also been very open about retirement and I can't remember the last time someone said they'd retire win or lose, then won?

 

[t6p]

wow you would think stipe is a 3-1 fav. I like Cormier but I won’t say it’s going to be easy either way. One thing is even though stipe won the last fight he was getting thoroughly dominated until those body shots in round 4. I think cormier mixes it up more in this fight and uses more of his wrestling.

I'd have to disagree that Stipe was getting thoroughly dominated until round 4, although that does seem to be narrative. The only dominant round of the fight was round 1, where DC took him down around the 3:00 mark and kept him there for the rest of the round. Round 2 was very competitive, but still a fairly clear DC round. Round 3 is where the tide started to turn, not round 4. It was a very close round, and I can see arguments for both guys winning it, but two judges scored it for Stipe.

Even if the finish didn't happen, DC had slowed considerably, Stipe was pretty clearly in control of the fight and they would have been headed to round 5 tied on two scorecards.

 

[TrueAscension]

I'd have to disagree that Stipe was getting thoroughly dominated until round 4, although that does seem to be narrative. The only dominant round of the fight was round 1, where DC took him down around the 3:00 mark and kept him there for the rest of the round. Round 2 was very competitive, but still a fairly clear DC round. Round 3 is where the tide started to turn, not round 4. It was a very close round, and I can see arguments for both guys winning it, but two judges scored it for Stipe.

Even if the finish didn't happen, DC had slowed considerably, Stipe was pretty clearly in control of the fight and they would have been headed to round 5 tied on two scorecards.

ya 2 judges had round 3 for Stipe and it would have obviously been 2-2 if DC made it into the 5th round at least on 2 cards

 

[Gugabe]

Anyone else think Daniel Pineda might be worth a stab?

The guy clearly does not give a fuck. Popped for steroids in the fucking PFL, will go to ground with fighters who are clearly better down there than he is, clear power given what he did to Movlid Khaybulaev (and ridiculous handspeed too). While most fighters who struggle with Herbert Burns on the feet do so because they're worried about his ground game and therefore keeping it on the feet (becoming tentative because they're wary of giving up a takedown, which keeps their hands too low, which gets them knocked down/out), the fact that Pineda straight up does not care about his grappling credentials may well be a blessing in disguise which gets him the win on the feet

Admittedly got the idea on this one from @Gugabe's latest write-up, but watching Pineda's tape it feels like people are writing him off for what he used to be rather than what he is (like fading Robbie Lawler on his return to the UFC because he lost to... Wow, Robbie Lawler's initial UFC losses aged REALLY well)

My view is that 'intelligent Pineda who wants to keep it standing' could look like a hindsight -300 here, but I have a gutfeel that he is going to go full retard too often to make him playable beyond a small stab.

 

[mmaday4day]

100%. Burns is too green to play at these odds in my opinion. Pineda is a real veteran I think he is better everywhere minus maybe the straight sub game. But even there he is the same as Burns, has a very dangerous guard.

There is no maybe. When it comes to BJJ Burns is 10x better than Pineda, who got submitted 6 times in his carreer (although the last time was in 2010). But if Pineda stays away from the ground game, he got a decent chance and I like him as an underdog.

 

[Monster Meat]

I'd have to disagree that Stipe was getting thoroughly dominated until round 4, although that does seem to be narrative. The only dominant round of the fight was round 1, where DC took him down around the 3:00 mark and kept him there for the rest of the round. Round 2 was very competitive, but still a fairly clear DC round. Round 3 is where the tide started to turn, not round 4. It was a very close round, and I can see arguments for both guys winning it, but two judges scored it for Stipe.

Even if the finish didn't happen, DC had slowed considerably, Stipe was pretty clearly in control of the fight and they would have been headed to round 5 tied on two scorecards.

the striking numbers weren’t close. Takedowns were even but Cormier landed 181 sig strikes to stipes 123 and 230 total to stipes 135