UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal (7/11)

Now that we know it’s outside I wonder what the weather be like at 6:00am for the prelims compared to later for the main card.
 
Sono07 said:
One thing that might help Usman, Masvidal hasn't fought past r3 since 2015.
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After several close decisions Mas kind of reinvented himself. He really goes for the finish and doesn't mind taking some risks. I would rank Mas decision as a very low probability outcome and not something I think even Masvidal is planning on. Mas is finish or nothing and his interviews indicate the same.
 
Richard Cruz said:
Now that we know it’s outside I wonder what the weather be like at 6:00am for the prelims compared to later for the main card.
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The outdoor octagon is just for selling a few PPV's and some merchandise.
 
LEMONZEST said:
After several close decisions Mas kind of reinvented himself. He really goes for the finish and doesn't mind taking some risks. I would rank Mas decision as a very low probability outcome and not something I think even Masvidal is planning on. Mas is finish or nothing and his interviews indicate the same.
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It does make me wonder how his cardio looks if the fight doesn't end early. Especially if Jorge hasn't gotten a full camp.
 
Solo cast, again did it late last night at like 2am, voice cracking a bit. I’ve been off my game a bit I haven’t focused on MMA as much as I used to since COVID. Half assed breakdown but here are my initial thoughts:

Also available on other media platforms (except SoundCloud), just type Rent Free MMA.


- Leo Santos ML and I believe he can finish
- Raulian Paiva ML
- Alex Volk ML, not happy with price
- Masvidal ML, many other forms of Mas like his points handicap when that releases.
- Aldo ML for value sake, have some bets on the o2.5 at -120 already but current price is no good to me.
- Rose ML
- Volkan Oezdemir, I think he can finish
- O2.5 for Zaleski/Salikhov, small
 
So I decided to check out props in advance and was surprised to see tasty props for Rose-Andrade:

Will the fight do to distance? Yes(-140), No(+110)
Fight completes first 2 rounds? Yes(-175), No(+145)
 
Soooo...I'm probably not gonna have much company on this island LOL but I'm gonna play the prop anyway and trust my read.

Andrade decision +385

IF she hasn't learned her lesson (that lesson being that she's not an elite striker, she's a tank with some power) this prop is trash. She will stand and get picked apart by Rose, or she'll get lucky and land a bomb and put Rose away. BUT...if Andrade realizes she needs to wrestle then I could absolutely see her doing enough with takedowns and top control to win the first couple of rounds. She will probably tire doing it, but with this being a 3 rounder she only needs to win the first 2 and then survive the 3rd.

Rose has good bjj, but her TDD is lacking. That showed in the first fight with how she continued to try to counter with the kimura because she couldn't stop Andrade from getting in deep when she shot. Once on her back, Rose is active but still accepts bottom for long stretches. It will be tough for her to win rounds assuming Andrade is doing ANYTHING with her gnp.

Also...this is a bit of a "gut feeling" play. I don't **expect** it to cash but I do think it has a little value at these odds.
 
TrueAscension said:
Guess we have a new king of cringe. Dudes gonna get fucked
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Yeah agreed. He also said he isn't as good in shape as he was for askren or till fights but it's good enough shape to beat a bum like usman. He's in for a rude awakening soon when this bum is pushing his limits.
 
mkess101 said:
Soooo...I'm probably not gonna have much company on this island LOL but I'm gonna play the prop anyway and trust my read.

Andrade decision +385

IF she hasn't learned her lesson (that lesson being that she's not an elite striker, she's a tank with some power) this prop is trash. She will stand and get picked apart by Rose, or she'll get lucky and land a bomb and put Rose away. BUT...if Andrade realizes she needs to wrestle then I could absolutely see her doing enough with takedowns and top control to win the first couple of rounds. She will probably tire doing it, but with this being a 3 rounder she only needs to win the first 2 and then survive the 3rd.

Rose has good bjj, but her TDD is lacking. That showed in the first fight with how she continued to try to counter with the kimura because she couldn't stop Andrade from getting in deep when she shot. Once on her back, Rose is active but still accepts bottom for long stretches. It will be tough for her to win rounds assuming Andrade is doing ANYTHING with her gnp.

Also...this is a bit of a "gut feeling" play. I don't **expect** it to cash but I do think it has a little value at these odds.
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Respect for providing arguments and an original pick for this bout, it won't surprise you that I think you're plain wrong but I'll donate $1k to a charity of your choice if you're right on this one. Good luck
 
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