UFC 241 Cormier vs Miocic II

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Jul 29, 2019.

  1. esant707

    esant707 Blue Belt

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    I'll be in South Lake Tahoe with my family this weekend, definitely putting in some bets.

    I think I'm going Cormier, Pettis, Romero for now. These are all some really close fights.
     
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  2. trident

    trident Water Belt

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    Romero Jacare was a draw if I ever saw one and they gave it to Romero.

    I'm on Romero in this one but the dude has had several close fights. Kennedy was able to get to him. The Jacare fight is what happens when he goes too hard in the 1rst. He lost two to the champ as well. It's not as if the guy is a lock.

    But he has a number of third round finishes, has dynamic explosive capacity, and is a seasoned top tier athlete.

    But if cant finish Costa early, this could be a tight fight. If there is a draw on this card, this wild bull match could be the one to deliver.
     
  3. NonPhixion

    NonPhixion White Belt

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    Stipe @2.22 is starting to look nice. I think its a genuine 50/50 fight.
     
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  4. Soccer Steve

    Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    Feels like we're due for one. 10-10's are essentially non-existent so it won't be from that.
    Maybe Stipe comes out gun's blazing and 10-8's DC R1, but he survives, loses R2 10-9, then takes over. There's your draw. Don't really see it anywhere else. Maybe Bermudez locks up Kenney for 5 full minutes R1 but then can't hold on to him being too sweaty R2 and R3.
    I love wasting money on Draw props, honestly.
     
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  5. letmebangbrah

    letmebangbrah Blue Belt

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    I could see Pettis winning the first two rounds with Nate turning up the pressure in the third on a potentially gassing Pettis, with a couple knockdowns leading to a 10-8.
     
  6. theTKDguy

    theTKDguy Platinum Native

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    I agree. That shouldn't be a reason to lean pettis.

    Just put a decent amount on dc, pettis, heinisch and ciffers. Will prob add more if their odds improve. Waiting for the over/unders too, especially pettis vs nate. Romero vs costa is tricky af, i would like a better price for yoel.
     
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  7. B2000829

    B2000829 White Belt

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    Clay collard is a huge underdog +600 vs smith.

    Anyone disagree there's a very good chance collard takes him down and beats him Gunther style?

    Yeah he might KO collard, but is there any evidence that Smith has improved his TDD or BJJ since 2017?
     
  8. Invictis

    Invictis Purple Belt

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    Just added more to Costa @ +125. I think this fight will be a pick'em in a few days.
     
  9. Gugabe

    Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Yeah. Kinda agree. +575 is crazy town when Collard legit has cardio, great durability and Smith might have a cardio/off the back issue
     
  10. Galactictoenail

    Galactictoenail White Belt

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    Just a couple of thoughts on Costa yoel again as watched the Costa - Hall fight again.

    Costa gets lit up by Halls jab in the first round. His defence is to just lean his head back in a straight line, no lateral head movement at all. If he fights like that vs Yoel he's going to eat a bomb at some point.

    He also threw a tonne of kicks to the body which could lead to him getting taken down by yoel. If he's limited to just throwing hands in fear of this I don't think he actually has better hands than Yoel. Apart from his hooks to the body his boxing doesn't really worry me here.

    Most of his striking success also came when backing Hall up with Uriah just covering up most of the time. If he wants to fight like the hammer again I think he's going to come up against a less willing nail on this occasion. I just think whenever romero gets into a situation where he's getting backed up he's going to shoot or look to clinch and trip rather than just cover up. If Costa can get in and work the body regularly I think he has a chance of catching yoel towards the end of a round when he's tired like Kennedy did. However he's equally likely to get careless when pressuring in that instance and getting caught with a bomb just like he did vs hall when he was briefly dropped in the 2nd.

    All in all costa certainly has a chance in this fight if he can pressure and back up a gassed romero, stuff his TDs and hit him with volume against the cage. But he's going to have his chin seriously tested in the process and I just don't think romero is that guy to do that against, he hits way too hard and is too explosive. Costa is a sitting duck in the middle of the octagon if his striking defence hasn't improved IMO.
     
    Last edited: Aug 13, 2019
  11. Cockadoodle

    Cockadoodle Orange Belt

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    Im pretty sure the Devonte that lost to Gunther is long gone. Even if Clay does take Smith down he wont be able to keep him there long. As someone who loves seeing the best in every dog, it pains me to say that Clay will get his ass kicked.

    In his old ufc fights as a young kid he was unothodox and unpredictable, pretty fun to watch but seemed more into doing crazy stuff than winning. His takedowns were good but he kept trying to do too much and lose positions.
    4 years on unfortunately it seems not much has changed. He showed his toughness early on in his April fight against Randall Wallace, his cardio was good and he outlasted Wallace to get the decision. I also watched a couple of his pro boxing fights which are very recent. Not much to write home about there, stick to MMA.

    If I was going to make a degen long odds bet on this fight it would be Smith by points. Clay is very durable and slippery as an eel. Most likely tho Devonte stuffs a couple takedowns then catches Clay with his hands down.
     
  12. B2000829

    B2000829 White Belt

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    Off the top of your head, can you think of a fight where Devonte has defended a takedown, aside from the Gunther fight?
    Ive watched 5 of Devonte's fights, but havent seen anyone else shoot on him yet.
    Alternatively - any online evidence of improved grappling? I cant find any grappling at all on google
     
  13. Gugabe

    Gugabe Purple Belt

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    IMO wait for the over on Smith/Collard. Should be a good play if it's o1.5. Smith wasn't pushing a hellacious pace against Ma by any means.
     
  14. mposhtkouhi

    mposhtkouhi Green Belt

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    When is heinisch gonna drop on my site still -168
     
  15. Captain Crunch28

    Captain Crunch28 Green Belt

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    I see people on here saying they are picking (and even parlaying) dc and Romero. One is a full 40 and the other a full 42.. they most likely both won’t win and it’s possible they both even lose.
    This is a young mans game, dc looking old to me, Romero may start to show some decline in this fight. I just think it’s safer to bet the opposite cause one of the younger lions finna win dis shizt
     
  16. Captain Crunch28

    Captain Crunch28 Green Belt

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    In a 50/50 fight, it will often come to who wants it more.

    In the first fight, double champ was on the line for dc, stipe worried about his preg wife back in Ohio while being in Texas for the fight. Stipe is my fav fighter and I even bet against him in that fight :(

    In the rematch, clearly it looks as if stipe wants it more. He wants his belt back bc it will be bigger paydays for him, dc talking about how this could be his last fight etc. Stipes chin scares me but I deff think he wants it more this time.
     
  17. Rickson

    Rickson LOL @ Askren & his fans who thought he was elite

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    <36>
     
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  18. Red_2

    Red_2 White Belt

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    At what odds do you think its playable when it come out?
     
  19. Cockadoodle

    Cockadoodle Orange Belt

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    Well yea that's what happens when you knock everyone out in the 1st round. In answer to your question no I have no evidence of improved grappling. I was in a similar position to you when I faded Smith and bet on Ma last fight so I guess once bitten twice shy.

    I am just not convinced that Clay is the tenacious wrestler who has the IQ to implement a blanketing grappling game plan. He is a striker who loves to stand and bang with his hands around his waist which he mixes up with some takedowns and ground game.

    At these odds he is def worth a punt if you think Clay can keep the fight on the ground! For sure he is better value than Carmouche last weekend.
     
  20. Rickson

    Rickson LOL @ Askren & his fans who thought he was elite

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    I’m still amazed that I got DC at +200 last time. He is just the better fighter everywhere. Hope some Stipe money comes because people want to believe the eye poke was the reason for his L.
     

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