UFC 217 - Bisping vs GSP - NYC

[Sadistics]

James Vick is good lol, underrated imo...massive height/reach advantage, very crafty jiujitsu, and has faced/beaten much better opponents. Joe Duffy has looked great against cans and got completely picked apart by Dustin (where Duffy was the -180 favorite)

I actually think there's good value on Vick for some parlays but we'll see

The reach advantage isn't massive, it's 3". They're the same belt level in BJJ, and Duffy also has a Japanese JJ black belt. Vick's competition has been better but they're still middle of the pack guys. Duffy didn't get picked apart by Poirier, quite the opposite. Poirier realized Duffy was getting the better of him standing and needed to wrestle to win, something Vick isn't capable of. And finally, why put an underdog in multiple parlays?

I appreciate hearing from the other side but it doesn't sound like you've done much if any research

 

[Sadistics]

Vick telegraphs kicks worse than anyone I can remember. Before every kick he does this weird fidgety shuffle then throws, all naked kicks too

 

[Orion]

Randy has faced real competitors in the octagon so far in Perry....

????

Mohamed is much better a wrestler than Mickey Gall is

Additionally, it’s hard to take much from Mickey when he has fought CM Punk, Mike Jackson, , and Northcutt as his trio of victims in the UFC so far.

???

How do we know Belal has much better wrestling than Gall? Belal's shots were setup poorly in that fight and he still managed to get Brown down twice AND get to his back (a habit Brown tends to have when scrambling).

This fight is realistically a pick em. It's Gall's toughest competition yet, but Brown isn't that great either and leaves a lot to be desired. Randy touted his brown belt recently as a credential that proves he will be ready for Gall on the ground, yet he got his back taken and controlled by a blue belt in Belal. He generally has a lot of bad habits on the ground so it was interesting to hear he's a brown belt.

He has decent kicks at times, but often throws them naked which Gall will look to catch and shoot a single off of. Gall's striking has looked amateurish in his bouts, but Randy's boxing hasn't been much to write home about either. The times Belal got tagged his head was stationary on the center line and they didn't exactly send him reeling.

This fight feels like it could end up a sloppy affair with it coming down to a few key scrambles. I tend to favor Gall's ability to pounce and seize the opportunity on the ground with a slight lean to Randy's on the feet just because we haven't seen a ton of Gall at this point. Coin flip, and with a gun to my head I'd take Gall by sub just because I don't like the glaring difference in skill in the grappling. On the other hand, if Randy lands a counter shot on Gall coming in and finishes him against the fence, I'll hardly faint.

 

[Naterade]

The reach advantage isn't massive, it's 3". They're the same belt level in BJJ, and Duffy also has a Japanese JJ black belt. Vick's competition has been better but they're still middle of the pack guys. Duffy didn't get picked apart by Poirier, quite the opposite. Poirier realized Duffy was getting the better of him standing and needed to wrestle to win, something Vick isn't capable of. And finally, why put an underdog in multiple parlays?

I appreciate hearing from the other side but it doesn't sound like you've done much if any research

Comparing mid level belts mean nothing in regards to a MMA fight. By crafty Jiu-Jitsu I meant crafty MMA Jiu-Jitsu (which in a MMA fight is all that matters)

I’ll have to go back watch the Dustin fight again. I remember Duffy getting the better of some exchanges but Dustin always being in his face and controlling him when he did take him down for a lopsided unanimous decision.

I wouldn’t necessarily put Vick in multiple parlays just like the ML or sub in a dog heavy/+prop parlay

I also get the feeling Vick has been improving every fight (since Beneil) Duffy will certainly have the speed and boxing advantage but it can get crazy in there...the scrambles and transitions are where Vick can win this fight

 

[turbozed]

Think this is exactly why he should be -200+ as Vick possesses none of the strengths that will give Duffy trouble.

Vick strikes at range, where duffy has much cleaner boxing, faster hands, and better combos. Vick doesn't have strong leg kicks, preferring to throw body and head kicks, and Duffy won't be shooting for tds or rushing into the clinch which negates his knees and chokes. Another thing is Vick doesn't pressure as he prefers to counter, but won't have the speed to counter Duffy's boxing consistenly. This will also make it difficult for him to win a dec as Duffy shoud be controlling the fight and throwing more volume. Sad already mentioned it also, but Vick doesn't shoot for tds and can't blend his grappling and striking like Poirier did to keep Duffy off balance. I expect Duffy to find his range and timing, get into a rythym that Vick will be unable to break, and go to work for a clear dec or KO.

I haven't watched tape on Vick yet so might end up agreeing with you. Vick strikes at range because that's where he has an advantage being 6'3. So against a guy better at range striking, he might switch up his game. The only question is whether he is capable of doing it since the blueprint to beating Duffy easily was provided by Poirier, who isn't known for being an especially strong wrestler. Madadi tried and failed but he looked a weight class smaller and was just fighting haphazardly.

 

[turbozed]

It took like 40 minutes to read Blaydes' wiki page and watch every UFC fight ever by him. Learning about MMA is really easy as fuck

Yeah this is why mma is the best for pro sportsbetting. Most times it takes an hour or two to watch all tape on a fight and search for most of the relevant info available. Each game in team sports takes hours, and there's too many variables when 10+ different players are involved, not to mention things like coaching, potential injuries, etc.

 

[Sadistics]

Comparing mid level belts mean nothing in regards to a MMA fight. By crafty Jiu-Jitsu I meant crafty MMA Jiu-Jitsu (which in a MMA fight is all that matters)

I’ll have to go back watch the Dustin fight again. I remember Duffy getting the better of some exchanges but Dustin always being in his face and controlling him when he did take him down for a lopsided unanimous decision.

I wouldn’t necessarily put Vick in multiple parlays just like the ML or sub in a dog heavy/+prop parlay

I also get the feeling Vick has been improving every fight (since Beneil) Duffy will certainly have the speed and boxing advantage but it can get crazy in there...the scrambles and transitions are where Vick can win this fight

His long limbs do allow him to get chokes better than most, he has a unique high elbow guillotine. He definitely does look to be improving since his loss to Dariush, think he went to Thailand to work on his stand up. Showed a better use of his range against Trujillo, even showed feints and tucked his chin a bit, but was very tentative being weary of the power. He looked to have reverted a bit against Reyes. I don't see any scrambles/transitions happening in this fight, neither really use any offensive grappling.

 

[betrayedlurker]

I thought that beat Shogun if I remember correctly. That it was a bad decision?
I’ll do some more tape watching then. Give a revised opinion tomorrow.

Edit: 17 out of 21 media score cards thought Shogun lost to Anderson..only two thought Anderson lost with the other two considering it a draw. .I’ll have to go watch. I do remember he was dropped though.

I didn't say I thought he lost, I said he has got rocked or KO'd by anyone half decent he's ever fought. He got dropped bad twice, both times at the end of the round. Most likely would've got KO'd if he wasn't saved by the bell.

 

[wack3d]

I’m certainly going to hedge on an OSP TKO or r1 finish. I my even just play Corey Anderson by decision and a round three prop. I have figured out how I’m going to play as yet, but I have 2 units on Anderson +170 right now. It all depends on where OSP via knock out prop it is placed as well as his round one prop. Also, I’m not sure let Corey has a glass jaw as much as Manuwa has a goddamn shoulder fire missile for a left hook. Also I do believe that Anderson was shaken up after a failed TDD as Jimi landed a sneaky shot to the temple disrupting Corey’s equilibrium before dusting him with a nuclear left hook. Jimi is a fucking beast and I believe he’d do the same thing to OSP if they met. Also, OSP doesn’t have near the technical boxing that Manuwa has.

+170 where? i have not seen him any higher then +145

 

[trucido]

Anyone looking at Zahabi x Ramos? Pretty much pick'em odds here and I'm digging Ramos, I thought he looked quite good against Tanaka from what I can remember, where as Zahabi looked pretty shit in his debut. Opinions?

 

[Sham5916910]

Duffy vick is gonna be a boxing match i will take the guy who turned dp a man who loves to throwdown into a wrestler. That was what 2 yrs ago? Im sure duffy has improved in that time too

 

[Yotsuya]

Anyone looking at Zahabi x Ramos? Pretty much pick'em odds here and I'm digging Ramos, I thought he looked quite good against Tanaka from what I can remember, where as Zahabi looked pretty shit in his debut. Opinions?

I just rewatched both debuts. I've written about this before, but I'm even more convinced that before, that Ramos could be in trouble, if he can't get it done in the first round. Looks like he had a major adredenaline dump trying to finish Tanaka late R1 and came notisably sluggish to the second round arguably losing the rest of the fight (most media scores were a draw). Zababi on the other hand had really steady 3 round performance. He got rattled couple times, but kept his composure and did not fade a bit in a pretty high pace fight. He almost finished Vieira in the second round.

If I've understood correctly, Ramos has admitted, that he broke down under pressure in his Legacy title fight and that he's working on his mental game. That can mean, that he will be fighting less agressive early on, which also means that he will be less dangerous and easier to outpoint by Zahabi's style. Or if he goes for the kill early and fails, Zahabi has a good change of outpointing him R2-3.

Zahabi could very well be in trouble against Ramos regarding stuff like skill level, athlethism and power, but he's obviously from a good camp and should come somewhat prepared to survive R1.

I'm not pumped by the ml odds either way, but took Zahabi dec at 3.95 small.

 

[Papi]

Sprinkled bisping sub at +1800 gsp has tapped to strikes before

 

[betrayedlurker]

I just rewatched both debuts. I've written about this before, but I'm even more convinced that before, that Ramos could be in trouble, if he can't get it done in the first round. Looks like he had a major adredenaline dump trying to finish Tanaka late R1 and came notisably sluggish to the second round arguably losing the rest of the fight (most media scores were a draw). Zababi on the other hand had really steady 3 round performance. He got rattled couple times, but kept his composure and did not fade a bit in a pretty high pace fight. He almost finished Vieira in the second round.

If I've understood correctly, Ramos has admitted, that he broke down under pressure in his Legacy title fight and that he's working on his mental game. That can mean, that he will be fighting less agressive early on, which also means that he will be less dangerous and easier to outpoint by Zahabi's style. Or if he goes for the kill early and fails, Zahabi has a good change of outpointing him R2-3.

Zahabi could very well be in trouble against Ramos regarding stuff like skill level, athlethism and power, but he's obviously from a good camp and should come somewhat prepared to survive R1.

I'm not pumped by the ml odds either way, but took Zahabi dec at 3.95 small.

Dawg, Viera is an absolute bum and Zahabi struggled with him. He definitely didn't win every round.

Tanaka is actually a tough fight for a 21 year old making his UFC debut and most debutants have adrenaline dumps so I don't think anyone can rely on Ramos gassing here.

You also can't hold Ramos' loss against him, most prospects lose early in their career. Dude was like 20 years old. He has a ton of potential.

Zahabi isn't a typical Tristar point fighter either, dude likes to brawl.

 

[Card]

 

[Monster Meat]

Why is bisping +3.5 -245 And +5.5 is -235 what am I missing here

 

[Yotsuya]

Dawg, Viera is an absolute bum and Zahabi struggled with him. He definitely didn't win every round.

Tanaka is actually a tough fight for a 21 year old making his UFC debut and most debutants have adrenaline dumps so I don't think anyone can rely on Ramos gassing here.

You also can't hold Ramos' loss against him, most prospects lose early in their career. Dude was like 20 years old. He has a ton of potential.

Zahabi isn't a typical Tristar point fighter either, dude likes to brawl.

I don't hold a loss against a prospect like Ramos. I was just telling, that in his own opinion he crumbled under pressure and that's not a good thing considering that he had similar problems in his UFC debut.

Yes, Tanaka is a hard debut opponent, but he is also not a good points fighter. More determined opponent might have edged R2-3.

I'm not sure what to think about Zahabi. At first I thought that he should have been able to finish Vieira in the second, but he got the knockdown only 20 seconds or so left in the round. Can't hold that against him either. Zahabi got hit a lot, but we'll see, if he manages to fight smarter against Ramos.

 

[betrayedlurker]

Why is bisping +3.5 -245 And +5.5 is -235 what am I missing here

Rookie bettors

 

[Duck Dodgers]

Do you remember the other fights he was hurt in? Jan Blag?

Tom Lawlor stunned him at least once.

 

[Monster Meat]

Rookie bettors

Cool thanks for the response White belt