UFC 217 - Bisping vs GSP - NYC

[t6p]

Totally against ya

Two of the people I don't wanna be against :/

I don't see any real advantage for duffy.. maybe boxing? But he's at size / reach disadvantage, right?

Clear dog or pass to me..

I'm late but Sadistics, Sham and Zee's pretty much already covered it. I don't just think that Duffy is the better boxer, I think he's the much better boxer and from what I've seen he's got the better chin.

I also don't see a cardio advantage for either guy. DP put on a GnP clinic on Duffy and Duffy still looked relatively fresh at the end of the fight all things considered. Vick has managed one takedown in his UFC career and it was against a gassed Trujillo. This fight is almost certain to take place on the feet at boxing range where Duffy is most comfortable.

I think Duffy is likely to get the KO here, but at worst I see him handily winning a decision. If Vick is able to outbox him over three rounds I'll be shocked, if he tries to implement a wrestling based gameplan I'll be even more shocked.

 

[betrayedlurker]

My God! Color me crazy but I LOOOVE Me some Corey Anderson at +135 against OSP. Given the fact that the come back on OSP is -170 I believe that these numbers should actually be reversed.

If OSP doesn’t get the KO in the first round I believe that Corey blankets him in the next two rounds and maybe even gets a stoppage in r3 as OSP historically has a pretty bad gas tank while Corey is a cardio machine. What’s more, I’ve never thought OSP was a very good fighter and he had all sorts of trouble against Ryan Bader a few fights back. That’s a blueprint that Anderson can very much replicate to victory.

What’s more, before beating Rogerio de Lima a damn near 40-year-old past his prime welterweight Yushin Okami on two days notice, OSP had lost 4 out of 5 fights and was on a major downswing.

His last two victories were the easiest competition he could possibly ask for in the UFC and the obvious results do nothing to assuage my belief that he is just not that good a fighter. I certainly don’t believe that they is on some comeback with those back to back successful performances They are what they are.

In short, I’ve always loved fading OSP and this is a beautiful spot to do it again IMO. As it is Corey Anderson will be my biggest play of the card.

I'm most likely not betting OSP, but just to play devil's advocate... you're using the low level of competition of OSP's wins in your argument, but the same could be said for Anderson too. He's lost to anyone he's ever fought who's half decent... and Villante.

I suppose Blachowicz is an OK win, but it was a perfect match-up for him (horrible tdd and cardio, not much power). Who's his next best win, O'Connell?

 

[Sadistics]

The monstrous neck of Duffy makes him less susceptible to being KOed and harder to choke

 

[TheOneTrueKing]

Any thoughts on movement in the Duffy line? Backers of either waiting?

 

[ill800]

My God! Color me crazy but I LOOOVE Me some Corey Anderson at +135 against OSP. Given the fact that the come back on OSP is -170 I believe that these numbers should actually be reversed.

If OSP doesn’t get the KO in the first round I believe that Corey blankets him in the next two rounds and maybe even gets a stoppage in r3 as OSP historically has a pretty bad gas tank while Corey is a cardio machine. What’s more, I’ve never thought OSP was a very good fighter and he had all sorts of trouble against Ryan Bader a few fights back. That’s a blueprint that Anderson can very much replicate to victory.

What’s more, before beating Rogerio de Lima a damn near 40-year-old past his prime welterweight Yushin Okami on two days notice, OSP had lost 4 out of 5 fights and was on a major downswing.

His last two victories were the easiest competition he could possibly ask for in the UFC and the obvious results do nothing to assuage my belief that he is just not that good a fighter. I certainly don’t believe that they is on some comeback with those back to back successful performances They are what they are.

In short, I’ve always loved fading OSP and this is a beautiful spot to do it again IMO. As it is Corey Anderson will be my biggest play of the card.

I don’t think a play on Anderson is unjustified but I learned my lesson on Anderson last time against manuwa.

Don’t make guys with glass jaws your biggest play of the card. Especially when their opponents are super atheletic and can bang

 

[Sadistics]

Any thoughts on movement in the Duffy line? Backers of either waiting?

Fury bet Duffy in 3 of his last 4 fights. I just checked his twitter and he says he's making 1-2 more bets this card. Take that for what it's worth

 

[MMA Goodfella]

I don’t think a play on Anderson is unjustified but I learned my lesson on Anderson last time against manuwa.

Don’t make guys with glass jaws your biggest play of the card. Especially when their opponents are super atheletic and can bang

I’m certainly going to hedge on an OSP TKO or r1 finish. I my even just play Corey Anderson by decision and a round three prop. I have figured out how I’m going to play as yet, but I have 2 units on Anderson +170 right now. It all depends on where OSP via knock out prop it is placed as well as his round one prop. Also, I’m not sure let Corey has a glass jaw as much as Manuwa has a goddamn shoulder fire missile for a left hook. Also I do believe that Anderson was shaken up after a failed TDD as Jimi landed a sneaky shot to the temple disrupting Corey’s equilibrium before dusting him with a nuclear left hook. Jimi is a fucking beast and I believe he’d do the same thing to OSP if they met. Also, OSP doesn’t have near the technical boxing that Manuwa has.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

I'm most likely not betting OSP, but just to play devil's advocate... you're using the low level of competition of OSP's wins in your argument, but the same could be said for Anderson too. He's lost to anyone he's ever fought who's half decent... and Villante.

I suppose Blachowicz is an OK win, but it was a perfect match-up for him (horrible tdd and cardio, not much power). Who's his next best win, O'Connell?

Fair enough. I’ve just never been big on OSP whatsoever and feel that stylistically this is a terrific matchup for Corey Anderson and a equally bad matchup for OSP. I am just picking Anderson to blow through him, but the line dictates the play and at +170 I feel like Anderson has lots of value. If this line was 50/50 we would be having a totally different conversation.

Who do you consider OSP’s best victory? And elderly immobile Shogun? A Patrick Cummins that couldn’t dodge a bowling ball being thrown at him from 20 yards away?

But I understand where you’re coming from and appreciate the other side.

 

[Sadistics]

Jimi is a fucking beast and I believe he’d do the same thing to OSP if they met. Also, OSP doesn’t have near the technical boxing that Manuwa has.

Lol, they did meet, and he did do the same thing

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Lol, they did meet, and he did do the same thing

Fuck you sadistics. Lol I’m getting old.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

I think Anderson is the right side to play but his chin is weak and he's coming off a KO loss. OSP is a big puncher but he fades down the stretch. Both guys have clear paths to victory, if Anderson doesn't get caught early, he should win. Hard to be confident in that chin though.

Also worth mentioning that OSP's decline started as soon as USADA showed up, seems to have lost some of that explosiveness.

That dog money is tempting

Hmmmmmm....Never considered the USADA angle. I’ve just never been that big on OSP. Plus I believe he has a lot of holes in his game that a good wrestler can exploit. Ryan Bader did this to him and even when he was in strikeforce little Benji Radach was able to take OSPdown and push him to the absolute brink. . I understand that OSP has gotten tremendously better since strikeforce days LOL but Corey Anderson is x 10 Benji Radach in the wrestling and athleticism department.

 

[ill800]

I’m certainly going to hedge on an OSP TKO or r1 finish. I my even just play Corey Anderson by decision and a round three prop. I have figured out how I’m going to play as yet, but I have 2 units on Anderson +170 right now. It all depends on where OSP via knock out prop it is placed as well as his round one prop. Also, I’m not sure let Corey has a glass jaw as much as Manuwa has a goddamn shoulder fire missile for a left hook. Also I do believe that Anderson was shaken up after a failed TDD as Jimi landed a sneaky shot to the temple disrupting Corey’s equilibrium before dusting him with a nuclear left hook. Jimi is a fucking beast and I believe he’d do the same thing to OSP if they met. Also, OSP doesn’t have near the technical boxing that Manuwa has.

I’d have to go back and watch tape again on Anderson but he’s been hurt in other fights just not ko’d.

 

[betrayedlurker]

Fair enough. I’ve just never been big on OSP whatsoever and feel that stylistically this is a terrific matchup for Corey Anderson and a equally bad matchup for OSP. I am just picking Anderson to blow through him, but the line dictates the play and at +170 I feel like Anderson has lots of value. If this line was 50/50 we would be having a totally different conversation.

Who do you consider OSP’s best victory? And elderly immobile Shogun? A Patrick Cummins that couldn’t dodge a bowling ball being thrown at him from 20 yards away?

But I understand where you’re coming from and appreciate the other side.

It's a good match up for him if he survives long enough for OSP to gas. Before that, it's a tough match up for Anderson. Anyone he's ever fought with power have rocked or KO'd him, including an even more immobilised version of the Shogun you just mentioned - twice. His striking defence is porous.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

It's a good match up for him if he survives long enough for OSP to gas. Before that, it's a tough match up for Anderson. Anyone he's ever fought with power have rocked or KO'd him, including an even more immobilised version of the Shogun you just mentioned - twice. His striking defence is porous.

I thought that beat Shogun if I remember correctly. That it was a bad decision?
I’ll do some more tape watching then. Give a revised opinion tomorrow.

Edit: 17 out of 21 media score cards thought Shogun lost to Anderson..only two thought Anderson lost with the other two considering it a draw. .I’ll have to go watch. I do remember he was dropped though.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

I’d have to go back and watch tape again on Anderson but he’s been hurt in other fights just not ko’d.

Do you remember the other fights he was hurt in? Jan Blag?

 

[piglord]

which fights look the most likely candidates for draws?

perhaps osp/corey or hendricks/borra? i wouldn't be surprised to see some inconsistent scorecards on wb/masvidal either.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

From what I’ve seen I agree! Goodluck with tape and update when done bud

OK, after watching tape I definitely think Randy Brown is the right pick here -125.

Randy has faced real competitors in the octagon so far in Perry, Camozzi and Mohammed and has fared well against them given his limited time in the sport. Also, his TDD has came along progressing each outing and he was doing an excellent job stuffing Mohammed‘s takedowns and winning a lot of the striking exchanges. Ultimately Mohammed was able to put Brown the mat control him for large portions of the fight, however, Mohamed is much better a wrestler than Mickey Gall is. What’s more, Brown stuffed many of his shots and punished Mohammed at a distance landing long punches and kicks and I think he’ll be able to pick Gall apart. I mean, Mohammed is also a much better boxer and overall mixed martial artist than the grappler that is scrubland sunshine.

What’s more, Mickey had trouble taking Sage down and was getting tagged late in the first in early second round before landing a shot that wobbled Northcutt and allowed Mickey to jump on a submission. It also seems that Mickey’s cardio was starting to become an issue. Additionally, it’s hard to take much from Mickey when he has fought CM Punk, Mike Jackson, , and Northcutt as his trio of victims in the UFC so far.

But it does seem that Brown is definitely better on the feet and I believe he’ll be able to stuff Mickey’s shots. It’s hard to cap given the limited opposition Mickey has faced, but I would put Brown somewhere in the -200 territory.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

So GSP is going to win and Bisping bettors are going to feel bad

 

[Naterade]

Have an obscene amount on Duffy that I gotta figure out, just kept maxing it on any book that offered better than -170. I'm incredibly happy with this line, figured I'd get around -280, makes me think I'm missing something.

James Vick is good lol, underrated imo...massive height/reach advantage, very crafty jiujitsu, and has faced/beaten much better opponents. Joe Duffy has looked great against cans and got completely picked apart by Dustin (where Duffy was the -180 favorite)

I actually think there's good value on Vick for some parlays but we'll see

 

[NorthernLights]

which fights look the most likely candidates for draws?

perhaps osp/corey or hendricks/borra? i wouldn't be surprised to see some inconsistent scorecards on wb/masvidal either.

I could see a scenario where Borra puts Hendricks through hell in R1, gasses trying to finish and ends up losing the second two smothered under Hendricks gut. Playing the draw on that one.