UFC 217 - Bisping vs GSP - NYC

[Rapidryan88]

Oleinik is the right side for me. I think value in the over too. Blades not as good as I remembered after tape. Both these guys are hittable. blaydes got great blast double when he's fresh. But it ain't over when he gets it there and guys end up getting up. He's ended up on bottom a few times too. With oleiniks sub threat and blaydes being relatively new to the game gotta think he can get caught by something he ain't seen before too.

was just about to post the over but saw you post! Agree 100% about the over think its a great bet

 

[EzFlyer]

Masvidal NSC +153. Probably my only play on that fight

Hard to see anyone finishing that fight imo. As such think goes 3 is still very generous.

Don't hate your play at all, either

 

[EzFlyer]

Masvidal Dec up to +320. Sure, why not

 

[EzFlyer]

View attachment 294217

GOAT opener

5u Duffy -140 and 1u Cutelaba u1.5. Wish I did more on that under.

Totally against ya

Two of the people I don't wanna be against :/

I don't see any real advantage for duffy.. maybe boxing? But he's at size / reach disadvantage, right?

Clear dog or pass to me..

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Totally against ya

Two of the people I don't wanna be against :/

I don't see any real advantage for duffy.. maybe boxing? But he's at size / reach disadvantage, right?

Clear dog or pass to me..

I've been tossing around the idea of betting Vick. He is much more proven with a higher floor than Duffy IMO.

The only reason why I may not is bc he isn't built to follow Poirier's blueprint of bullying Duffy on the ground, and Duffy hasn't shown a ton of weakness other than that. But it still feels like a reach to make Duffy a clear fave when he has otherwise finished scrubs and beat old man Madadi in decision.

I'm prob going to pass but I agree it's hard to justify paying juice on Duffy

 

[Sadistics]

Totally against ya

Two of the people I don't wanna be against :/

I don't see any real advantage for duffy.. maybe boxing? But he's at size / reach disadvantage, right?

Clear dog or pass to me..

One of us is severely under/over-estimating Duffy, I think he should be closer to -300. I explained a bit of my reasoning earlier in the thread but the gist of it is, this is going to be a boxing match where one guy is a much better boxer. If there's any area of the matchup you want to discuss I'm here, digging into this one hard

 

[piglord]

remember what happened the last time vick fought a high level striker?

 

[Stunna77]

Totally against ya

Two of the people I don't wanna be against :/

I don't see any real advantage for duffy.. maybe boxing? But he's at size / reach disadvantage, right?

Clear dog or pass to me..

One of us is severely under/over-estimating Duffy, I think he should be closer to -300. I explained a bit of my reasoning earlier in the thread but the gist of it is, this is going to be a boxing match where one guy is a much better boxer. If there's any area of the matchup you want to discuss I'm here, digging into this one hard

I would also like to hear some of your counter points EZ, as I am really heavy on Duffy. Going to rewatch tape tonight to see if I am missing something.

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

I can understand why people like Vick as a dog, the guy comes to fight and he's an opportunist. The problem for Vick is, he is outmatched by Duffy in very aspect of the game

Duffy is going to light him up bad, Vick has poor defence and he gets tagged a lot by far lesser boxers. Vick can't wrestle and even if he takes Duffy down he is in danger of being subbed. Duffy wins this handily, I just see significant skill gap.

 

[Sham5916910]

I've been tossing around the idea of betting Vick. He is much more proven with a higher floor than Duffy IMO.

The only reason why I may not is bc he isn't built to follow Poirier's blueprint of bullying Duffy on the ground, and Duffy hasn't shown a ton of weakness other than that. But it still feels like a reach to make Duffy a clear fave when he has otherwise finished scrubs and beat old man Madadi in decision.

I'm prob going to pass but I agree it's hard to justify paying juice on Duffy

You can only beat whos in front of you and duffy smashed them all. Dp had to resort to wrestling and he would squash vick. I bet dariush over vick and at the time i wasnt overly high on dariushs standup but i am more confident in duffys hands than i was dariushs. Vick has tall man defence and i am not sold on his chin. He is easy to hit no angles just comes in and throws with his chin sky high. This is going to be a boxing match and for me duffy is the better boxer.

 

[EzFlyer]

U like Gall or Brown? I kinda didn't like the way Gall reacted when getting hit by Sage

brown (x is future, jeff)

 

[EzFlyer]

Anyone like OSP? I’m not sure Corey’s chin can take a shot from him.

osp doesn't throw punches, anyway!

 

[EzFlyer]

One of us is severely under/over-estimating Duffy, I think he should be closer to -300. I explained a bit of my reasoning earlier in the thread but the gist of it is, this is going to be a boxing match where one guy is a much better boxer. If there's any area of the matchup you want to discuss I'm here, digging into this one hard

i saw, catching up now, took a while today to finally get caught up lol.

i see a tooootal coinflip. both guys good offensive grapplers.. but neither has good wrestling so it's likely to be mostly standup.. both have some power and both are very long 155'ers. duffy better technical boxing but vick bigger/more reach, maybe better kicks? i think vick might have a slight cardio edge but duffy i think wears down more during a fight if there's grappling, so that might not be much of a factor

and yea, if you like duffy as high as -250 (paraphrasing what you said) and i like vick as low as +120 or so... we're WAY off on this one ><

i wish ya the best.. maybe i'll temper my action. i only hope you consider my side, too! (tho i know you're already heavily invested)

I would also like to hear some of your counter points EZ, as I am really heavy on Duffy. Going to rewatch tape tonight to see if I am missing something.

^^ hehe

 

[Sadistics]

i saw, catching up now, took a while today to finally get caught up lol.

i see a tooootal coinflip. both guys good offensive grapplers.. but neither has good wrestling so it's likely to be mostly standup.. both have some power and both are very long 155'ers. duffy better technical boxing but vick bigger/more reach, maybe better kicks? i think vick might have a slight cardio edge but duffy i think wears down more during a fight if there's grappling, so that might not be much of a factor

and yea, if you like duffy as high as -250 (paraphrasing what you said) and i like vick as low as +120 or so... we're WAY off on this one ><

i wish ya the best.. maybe i'll temper my action. i only hope you consider my side, too! (tho i know you're already heavily invested)



^^ hehe

Vick only has 3" of reach on Duffy. Cardio is a non-factor here imo. The kicks aren't even close, Vick telegraphs, winds up, drops his hands while Duffy sets them up, throws them lightning quick with perfect technique. He has a TKD black belt.

I'm obsessively rewatching tape due to my stakes/yours and others Vick confidence.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

My God! Color me crazy but I LOOOVE Me some Corey Anderson at +135 against OSP. Given the fact that the come back on OSP is -170 I believe that these numbers should actually be reversed.

If OSP doesn’t get the KO in the first round I believe that Corey blankets him in the next two rounds and maybe even gets a stoppage in r3 as OSP historically has a pretty bad gas tank while Corey is a cardio machine. What’s more, I’ve never thought OSP was a very good fighter and he had all sorts of trouble against Ryan Bader a few fights back. That’s a blueprint that Anderson can very much replicate to victory.

What’s more, before beating Rogerio de Lima a damn near 40-year-old past his prime welterweight Yushin Okami on two days notice, OSP had lost 4 out of 5 fights and was on a major downswing.

His last two victories were the easiest competition he could possibly ask for in the UFC and the obvious results do nothing to assuage my belief that he is just not that good a fighter. I certainly don’t believe that they is on some comeback with those back to back successful performances They are what they are.

In short, I’ve always loved fading OSP and this is a beautiful spot to do it again IMO. As it is Corey Anderson will be my biggest play of the card.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Surprised how many are on gall, is it purely a price thing? I’m not a fan of randy brown but at least his wins are against people with better than 0-0 records (forget northcutt he’s like a fish out of water on the ground)

Yeah I’m gonna do some more keep watching, but I just watch Mickey Gall versus Sage Northcutt and Mickey was fading bad in the second round and Sage started talking smack and it seemed to get in Mickey’s head. There was a bit of time where Mickey was falling short on his takedowns and Sage was just mocking him. It looked like Northcutt was going to get the stoppage and Mickey was just running out of gas and out of answers. Right before getting a fortunate strike and in and ultimate finish.

Randy Brown is much more well rounded than Northcutt at this stage and he’s also a genuine 170 pound fighter with excellent cardio. He has a very long reach and his striking has gotten progressively better each fight. Further, so. has his TDD which is super important against Gall.

At -125 I think Randy Brown is probably the right side though I’m going to do just a little bit more tape watching.

 

[Rapidryan88]

Yeah I’m gonna do some more keep watching, but I just watch Mickey Gall versus Sage Northcutt and Mickey was fading bad in the second round and Sage started talking smack and it seemed to get in Mickey’s head. There was a bit of time where Mickey was falling short on his takedowns and Sage was just mocking him. It looked like Northcutt was going to get the stoppage and Mickey was just running out of gas and out of answers. Right before getting a fortunate strike and in and ultimate finish.

Randy Brown is much more well rounded than Northcutt at this stage and he’s also a genuine 170 pound fighter with excellent cardio. He has a very long reach and his striking has gotten progressively better each fight. Further, so. has his TDD which is super important against Gall.

At -125 I think Randy Brown is probably the right side though I’m going to do just a little bit more tape watching.

From what I’ve seen I agree! Goodluck with tape and update when done bud

 

[Sadistics]

I'd love to hear some more analysis from Vick backers, how do you think he wins?

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

My God! Color me crazy but I LOOOVE Me some Corey Anderson at +135 against OSP. Given the fact that the come back on OSP is -170 I believe that these numbers should actually be reversed.

If OSP doesn’t get the KO in the first round I believe that Corey blankets him in the next two rounds and maybe even gets a stoppage in r3 as OSP historically has a pretty bad gas tank while Corey is a cardio machine. What’s more, I’ve never thought OSP was a very good fighter and he had all sorts of trouble against Ryan Bader a few fights back. That’s a blueprint that Anderson can very much replicate to victory.

What’s more, before beating Rogerio de Lima a damn near 40-year-old past his prime welterweight Yushin Okami on two days notice, OSP had lost 4 out of 5 fights and was on a major downswing.

His last two victories were the easiest competition he could possibly ask for in the UFC and the obvious results do nothing to assuage my belief that he is just not that good a fighter. I certainly don’t believe that they is on some comeback with those back to back successful performances They are what they are.

In short, I’ve always loved fading OSP and this is a beautiful spot to do it again IMO. As it is Corey Anderson will be my biggest play of the card.

I think Anderson is the right side to play but his chin is weak and he's coming off a KO loss. OSP is a big puncher but he fades down the stretch. Both guys have clear paths to victory, if Anderson doesn't get caught early, he should win. Hard to be confident in that chin though.

Also worth mentioning that OSP's decline started as soon as USADA showed up, seems to have lost some of that explosiveness.

That dog money is tempting

 

[TheOneTrueKing]

I'd love to hear some more analysis from Vick backers, how do you think he wins?

I think your right on this one fwiw. no tape tho. Gonna trust you on this one and look into the other fights.