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UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas - Part III

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For those that miss Gabriel Morency and Gamblou. Lou likes Stipe in the main event and Joanna in the co-main but thinks Andrade is a live dog. Thinks Mavsidal won't be able to keep it on the feet against Maia and will lose. Also thinks Frankie will wipe the floor with too-much-too-soon Yair and is one of the bets of the year. Gabe agrees. Lou worried about his mentality after a loss but he and Gabe lean Alvarez over Poirier. Lou is not impressed by either but leans Jotko over Branch. They say it's big favorite Vick's fight to lose vs Reyes. Gabe likes Knight while Lou disagrees and leans Skelly. On the early prelims Lou likes Casey and Sherman a little, but is not sure about the rest.

 
Regarding Dustin Poirier and Eddie Alvarez. I never like to play a fighter who is coming back directly off of a knock out. You never know where they are physically and mentally until they have have a few fights.

Take for instance this small sample size of common fighters Who have completed over the course of the last five UFC events.


  1. J. Ellenberger L
  2. Joe Proctor L
  3. Jessica Penne L
  4. Matt Schnel L
  5. Chris Weidman L
  6. Patrick Cummins L
  7. Brad Pickett L
  8. Lina Landsberg W
  9. Vitor Belfort L
  10. Garreth McLellan L

What do each of these 10 volunteers have in common? They are the only fighters that competed over the course of the last five events who had been KO'd in their subsequent fight or was competing directly after being KNOCKED OUT.


OK, I know that the sample size is not that significant, but it does represent a pretty straightforward trend.

  • These fighters competed over the last 5 events.
  • 9 of 10 LOST their ensuing fight AFTER being KNOCKED OUT.
  • I take the Landsberg win with a grain of salt given the fact that WMMA fights are fairly low level fighters.P In fact, LL opponent following her TKO loss to was the unheralded ucie Pudilová.
 
Damn it, I was waiting for Mas line to go up, instead it went down, people are betting Mas, wtf.... Now i am even less interested in betting Mas. :(
 
SBJJ said:
U do a Stipe JDS breakdown yet
Click to expand...

HYG

Miocic vs. JDS

StipeMiocic isn’t the most ostentatiously attractive fighter with a belt around his waist, but it works well for him. Moreover it suits him perfect and is a apt representation of the embodiment of his blue-collar hometown. Fighting out of the midwestern state of Ohio, Miocic's grinding blue collar style personifies the Rust Belt individual. Miocic remains among the most fundamentally proficient and mobile heavyweights in the UFC. Primarily Miocic’s attack is composed a tight boxing central foundation and robust takedown defense. Using his Division I wrestling credentials in reverse, he works behind a stiff ramrod jab and crisp, fluid combinations with both hands.

Miocic has stellar head movement and footwork for a heavyweight and throws excellent counters. The champ is excellent on the outside but his work in close quarters is among the best in the history of the division as he only needs the smallest of openings to land a thunderous punch and shut his opponents lights off. For reference see his handiwork against Werdum prior to that Arlovski. The champion needs but the briefest of windows to land a short hook to the head and it's curtains.

Miocic also has the D1 wrestling credentials in his back pocket. Although he rarely utilizes it, he does possess an excellent single leg takedown and is incredibly heavy from the top position. Additionally is ground and pound from inside his opponents guard is inhumanly violent as demonstrated against Alistair Overeem. Possessing these wrestling skills present him a safety valve in case he needs to adopt a Plan B for if things aren't working well on the feet. The threat of the takedown also helps to set traps. Feinting the shot forces his opponent to drop their hands and prepare to get under-hooks to stuff the TD thus opening themselves up to get bombed on.

Dos Santos is a top tier pugilist with some of the best pure boxing in MMA HW history. He has fast hands and his mechanics are rocksolid. He has excellent takedown defense and a granite chin. The last time he locked horns with Miocic we saw him take a drubbing and dish out the same. However JDS may be showing signs that his legendary jawline is succumbing to years of abuse. This is because he has been starched twice since the first meeting. Most recently Alistair Overeem turned his lights completely out. Prior to that he was tortured by Cain Velasquez twice and finished in the 10th round of their epic trilogy.

What separates Dos Santos from the pack of strikers without wrestling backgrounds is his world class takedown defense. In fact, Velasquez is the only fighter he has faced in the UFC to have more than a single takedown on him. As great as his offense is, the major flaw in the JDS striking arsenal is his bad habit of retreating in straight lines. Also known as circa 2010 Michael Bisoing defense. this occurred various times in his first contest against the champion and it gave Miocic the opportunity to bomb on the Brazilian with no repercussions.

Both former UFC heavyweight champions, these are a pair of A-level knockout strikers with brutal power. As such this bout could go either way. That said, it's been three years since their initial encounter and the 2017 version of Miocic is infinitely better than the one that just came up short in Brazil. The champion has been much more active as well. We've only seen JDS two times since and one of these was the loss to Reem. Meanwhile Miocic has been on a soul snatching tour since then, dispatching Mark Hunt, Andrei Arlovski, Fabricio Werdum and Alistair Overeem all by brutal knockouts.

Basically the pendulum has swung and the momentum is on the side of Miocic right now. Miocic proved in 2014 but he does have the goods tobest Dos Santos and this time I think he gets the job done. The champ walks Dos Santos down and catches him with something heavy late in the second frame is my guess.

Prediction: And .....STILL!!!!!!
 
MMA Goodfella said:
Regarding Dustin Poirier and Eddie Alvarez. I never like to play a fighter who is coming back directly off of a knock out. You never know where they are physically and mentally until they have have a few fights.

Take for instance this small sample size of common fighters Who have completed over the course of the last five UFC events.


  1. J. Ellenberger L
  2. Joe Proctor L
  3. Jessica Penne L
  4. Matt Schnel L
  5. Chris Weidman L
  6. Patrick Cummins L
  7. Brad Pickett L
  8. Lina Landsberg W
  9. Vitor Belfort L
  10. Garreth McLellan L

What do each of these 10 volunteers have in common? They are the only fighters that competed over the course of the last five events who had been KO'd in their subsequent fight or was competing directly after being KNOCKED OUT.


OK, I know that the sample size is not that significant, but it does represent a pretty straightforward trend.

  • These fighters competed over the last 5 events.
  • 9 of 10 LOST their ensuing fight AFTER being KNOCKED OUT.
  • I take the Landsberg win with a grain of salt given the fact that WMMA fights are fairly low level fighters.P In fact, LL opponent following her TKO loss to was the unheralded ucie Pudilová.
Click to expand...

Cummins won
 
I have 2 u on Yair and I'm trying to figure out if I should fade him a bit because the line would allow me to do so. After listening MMA Vivisection and Heavy Hands, it seems to me that the result is down to this: Is Edgar just getting slightly slower or is he just getting more functional, comfortable and defensively solid pocket fighter? "Old" Edgar has not been that good at pressuring, which would be the key to expose Yair's weaknesses. Instead his classic potshot bouncing would play in Yair's advance. Edgar is good at adapting, but still he did not look good against Oliviera, who had very different style and physique than Edgar's usual stocky wrestler-boxer opponents. Also is three rounds long enough to adapt unless he comes with solid game plan to begin with.

I think I might fade Yair 0,5 u and try to LB.
 
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Yotsuya said:
I have 2 u on Yair and I'm trying to figure out if I should fade him a bit because the line would allow me to do so. After listening MMA Vivisection and Heavy Hands, to me it seems that the result is down to this: Is Edgar just getting slightly slower or is he just getting more functional, comfortable and defensively solid pocket fighter? "Old" Edgar has not been that good at pressuring, which would be the key to expose Yair's weaknesses. Instead his classic potshot bouncing would play in Yair's advance. Edgar is good at adapting, but still he did not look good against Oliviera, who had very different style and physique than Edgar's usual stocky wrestler-boxer opponents. Also is three rounds long enough to adapt unless he comes with solid game plan to begin with.

I think I might fade Yair 0,5 u and try to LB.
Click to expand...

I haven't listened to Vivi yet, but I would not be surprised if this is the fight where Frankies chin finally cracks. I remember people thinking Mendes would crack him, and he keeps getting hurt in EVERY DAMN FIGHT. It is impressive and I love Frankie more than almost any fighter, but I'm worried about him. I put a unit on Yair at 2.30 mostly to not be too sad if Frankie lose.
 
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Yea it looks like Luca laid the juice on Joanna. He's so arrogant that he can't help but talk up the fighters he bets on in twitter.

You can pay thousands of dollars for this information or you can let his massive ego reveal his bets on twitter.

If anyone wants to PayPal me in thx for these Luca fury premium picks feel free to hit my dm.

Jds
Mas
Jj

all ML

And I'll be surprised if he doesn't juice frankie back up before saturday
 
ill800 said:
Yea it looks like Luca laid the juice on Joanna. He's so arrogant that he can't help but talk up the fighters he bets on in twitter.

You can pay thousands of dollars for this information or you can let his massive ego reveal his bets on twitter.

If anyone wants to PayPal me in thx for these Luca fury premium picks feel free to hit my dm.

Jds
Mas
Jj

all ML

And I'll be surprised if he doesn't juice frankie back up before saturday
Click to expand...

He is going to sue us soon :)
 
SBJJ said:
This is about where Oblivian screams about me making it personal for pointing out he doesn't bet real money and completely forgetting he called me a son of a bitch then made light of me being down big early in the year. A fact only known because I've been honest about it. Big hypocrite.

Stay classy oblivian.
Click to expand...

Nah, I went to bed after my relax in the jacuzzi. I'm not quite as sensitive as you and don't lose any sleep. Everything I'm pointing out is relevant to the conversation that was going on. You try to act like this high rolling, OG of the thread remembering the good ol' days. As if you were some big contributor back in the day and that your bet amounts give you clout. As I told you a while ago, you betting large amounts doesn't impress me at all nor make me value your opinion anymore. Being down close to 4 months is something that I don't think has ever happened to me and probably others. Especially with how many events we have. I'm only "making light of it" after you are trying to act like some badass saying "if you don't know me, ask around".

I do think you are an honest guy about your bets which is a positive. We honestly share similar opinions on the state of the thread and the hyperbole. The hyperbole and "lock" mindset is something I've always critiqued. You seem to have issues separating your emotions from a conversation. I can go back and forth with a poster and think they are a douchebag, but it doesn't mean I can't agree with them on things or have a civil discussion in regards to a fight or betting in general. I've also never seen someone be so sensitive about being called an "agitated son of a bitch". Not sure if you get out much, but "son of a bitch" is just an expression. Ex: "He's a tough son of a bitch". If someone says that to you, are you going to flip out because they say "son of a bitch"? Lol. I'm just pointing out how agitated and miserable you have seemed in this thread. Why stick around? Take a break.
 
just want to say that Shermans boxing is subpar and I can't believe people are actually betting on him. He didn't land anything against his UFC opponents and he made Walt friken Harris look like Pride era Cro Cop. Correction, Sherman did have a fluke ko against an opponent who came out on a tricycle in a jigsaw Mask. Sherman opponent isn't that much better but he reminds me more of Derek Lewis . Yes cuz he's black but most importantly his brawling style and deceiving way of walking forward with the right hand loaded . just can't believe money is going on Sherman

Also Gordon sub is attractive In parlays . It might be his only way of winning yet he's the favorite. Oddsmakers are leaning towards decision but I dunno. Quinones is fast with his strikes , like yair speed but much more traditional thai style. He could Ko or pepper him to much for Gordon to get a decision w . Little tape on either but Gordon is a brown belt at a legit school
 
Sham5916910 said:
Thanks Luca - I just added another unit to Andrade @ +168.
Click to expand...
I wish I liked Andrade that much. If she was closer to +200 I'd probably play her. I just don't think she's going to outstrike Joanna or keep her on her back.

Besides, "gambling jesus" Luca fury is on jj.

Let me check her nsc...back to -130. I already have $130 on that line. That's good enough for me

Luca is dropping heat on twitter about why jj is going to win.
 
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Frankie Edgar by submission +1400 at Betvictor is clearly worth a stab...
Yair has the bad habit of putting himself in bad positions.
 
pytycrys said:
Frankie Edgar by submission +1400 at Betvictor is clearly worth a stab...
Yair has the bad habit of putting himself in bad positions.
Click to expand...
Yes!
 
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