UFC 210 - DC vs AJ 2 - Buffalo - II

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King_Brown said:
Add Cynthia or Cote. I would. wbu?
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Cynthia outright seems way too risky for a parlay. Picking her against ABC was fairly easy due to the massive hole in cooper's grappling game, but Pearl is better on the ground than that. Too much uncertainty around both. Maybe parlay o1.5 or something instead.
 
Orion said:
Cynthia outright seems way too risky for a parlay. Picking her against ABC was fairly easy due to the massive hole in cooper's grappling game, but Pearl is better on the ground than that. Too much uncertainty around both. Maybe parlay o1.5 or something instead.
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Pearl does seem better on the mat but shes pretty loose positionally. Cynthia is very technical on the mat for a woman. I expect her to tie pearl up in knots.
 
Cptn1NSAN0 said:
Strick ate some BOMBS from Ponz, I think he's got a chin on him. Usman's striking relies entirely on the threat of the TD, before he gets that going it looks very rudimentary. See the Edwards fight or the Alves fight. They were piecing him up and Alves was able to avoid the clinch entirely before he gassed.
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Alves elected not to clinch at all in r1 and he had opportunities. I think that was his strategy to confuse Alves and once the clinch came r2 onwards it opened up Usmans striking. Alves was definitely not piecing Usman up in r1 it was a fairly even round, and Alves is a dangerous guy especially in r1.
 
Orion said:
Cynthia outright seems way too risky for a parlay. Picking her against ABC was fairly easy due to the massive hole in cooper's grappling game, but Pearl is better on the ground than that. Too much uncertainty around both. Maybe parlay o1.5 or something instead.
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To me Pearl seems worse on the mat than Cooper. Cooper hasn't looked that bad. She has struggled against two of the best 115lb grapplers in Cavillo and Saurez, but based on what I've seen of Pearl, I expect her to fare even worse. She's hit some subs from bottom against weak competition, but I highly doubt she will be in the position to do so against Cavillo. Her guard is very passable. The difference in level of training partner is insane with these two.
 
Got carried away after this 3 week break, have almost 50 units staked between the 13 fights. The bigger bets being

Emmett -155 8u
Kamaru/Strickland O2.5 -183 9u
Calvillo -185 5u
Gillespie -170 3.5u
Burgos -165 3u

All are freerollable for a rather large amount, just can't decide if I should hedge any as I'm happy with these prices. Do you guys see these lines as being off, and if they were still available would you hammer them as hard as I have?
 
Sadistics said:
Got carried away after this 3 week break, have almost 50 units staked between the 13 fights. The bigger bets being

Emmett -155 8u
Kamaru/Strickland O2.5 -183 9u
Calvillo -185 5u
Gillespie -170 3.5u
Burgos -165 3u

All are freerollable for a rather large amount, just can't decide if I should hedge any as I'm happy with these prices. Do you guys see these lines as being off, and if they were still available would you hammer them as hard as I have?
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You went too big, but I think that you will get good money.
I really really like Emmet and Calvillo. Gillespie and Burgos should get the job done too
 
Jamah said:
You went too big, but I think that you will get good money.
I really really like Emmet and Calvillo. Gillespie and Burgos should get the job done too
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There's no such thing as 'too big' if all are freerollable.

Out of all them I'd have the least confidence in Gillispie. I'm actually considering hitting Holbrook fo 1u, and I've faded him every fight so far in the UFC.
 
weedreference said:
There's no such thing as 'too big' if all are freerollable.

Out of all them I'd have the least confidence in is Gillispie. I'm actually considering hitting Holbrook fo 1u, and I've faded him every fight so far in the UFC.
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Yeah sorry, I didn't use the proper words to explain myself
Holbrook will lose by decision if he can't lock a submission.
He has 10% TDD because he doesn't mind being taken down, Gillespie will take him down anytime he wants to.
Gillespie's stand up is better and he showed great cardio against Glaico Franca, getting a 10-8 in the 3rd round.
I don't see Holbrook winning besides a sub or a robbery (don't forget the Nijem fight)
The over 2.5 rounds might be the safest option tho
 
weedreference said:
There's no such thing as 'too big' if all are freerollable.

Out of all them I'd have the least confidence in Gillispie. I'm actually considering hitting Holbrook fo 1u, and I've faded him every fight so far in the UFC.
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I was considering Holbrook as well, his style works great with new judging. I hit the opener on GG as I knew odds would shoot up so I'd get a better price no matter who I end up siding with. After rewatching tape I'm happy with the bet and price; Holbrook's path to victory looks to be to hold onto ineffective subs and win the fight off his back. I'd reconsider him at +300 but think the price is pretty accurate where it's at
 
DevilsPt2 said:
I agree, Oliveiras only shot is sub and more than likely guillotine. Once its locked its very hard to escape and Oliveira sets it up a move ahead so it could be hard for Brooks to see coming in some situations. Brooks fight against Held is a huge confidence increase if anyone is doubting Brooks.

Seems a lot of you are on Cote, I was at first too, switched and now I'm kinda doubtng Alves. I'll have to take a 20th look now
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I don't agree with that at all. Brooks lost the first round, but the spread looks much bigger since it was a 5 round fight. I also don't think Held is similar to Oliveira. This came up several times prior to the Lauzon fight where people kept saying Held was a major submission attacker. He's been to decision in five of his last six, with the one finish being late. He's been looking for takedowns, sweeps, and top position. He's not a kill or be killed type fighter. Oliveira has 17 UFC fights and only two decisions (winning one in 2014 and losing one in 2013). He's kill or be killed, which is not something you can say about Held.
 
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How I feel betting Rosa...
 
Sham5916910 said:
Alves elected not to clinch at all in r1 and he had opportunities. I think that was his strategy to confuse Alves and once the clinch came r2 onwards it opened up Usmans striking. Alves was definitely not piecing Usman up in r1 it was a fairly even round, and Alves is a dangerous guy especially in r1.
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I completely disagree. Usman was trying to cut off the cage and failing, Alves' footwork was just better and he responded to Usman's pressure with lateral movement and body shots. Usman's "strategy" wasn't to give up a round to confuse his opponent. He simply couldn't get his wrestling going and once he did in Rd 2 he exhausted Alves.

Here are some of my notes from rd 1:

- Alves tags Usman was the 1-1-2
- Alves able to keep Usman from shooting a TD with his back to the cage by keeping him honest with punches
- Alves sharp jab, good work behind it
- Usman looking to bully Alves to the fence
- straight right and a LHK send Usman onto the backfoot
- Alves very mobile, good footwork, staying outside range of TDs
- Alves nice counterpunches as Usman enters range (back against cage)
- nice low kick from Alves
- Alves using well timed body strikes to keep Usman from changing levels
- hard body kicks from Alves
- Alves able to stay on his feet by using lateral footwork and staying mobile
- Usman tons of aggression to close the round
- 10-9 ALVES

2 judges gave Alves rd 1 on the cards so I'm not smoking crack over here.
 
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Just mosied over to the official bets thread, people are still betting Usman at -350? I understand favoring him but Jesus Christ... He's facing a guy who's arguably 6-0 in the UFC and has a skillset that presents an interesting challenge.
 
Cptn1NSAN0 said:
Just mosied over to the official bets thread, people are still betting Usman at -350? I understand favoring him but Jesus Christ... He's facing a guy who's arguably 6-0 in the UFC and has a skillset that presents an interesting challenge.
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What do you mean? He lost 27-30 to Ponzinibbio.
 
Sadistics said:
Got carried away after this 3 week break, have almost 50 units staked between the 13 fights. The bigger bets being

Emmett -155 8u
Kamaru/Strickland O2.5 -183 9u
Calvillo -185 5u
Gillespie -170 3.5u
Burgos -165 3u

All are freerollable for a rather large amount, just can't decide if I should hedge any as I'm happy with these prices. Do you guys see these lines as being off, and if they were still available would you hammer them as hard as I have?
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It depends on your strategy. For me, 50 units is unheard of going into an event... 8u, 9u on a single play us also too risky... But if it's not too far outside of the norm for you, then it's not a big deal

Also: If you PLANNED to arb when you made the bet, then yea, prolly should

If you flat-out loved the lines, then you shouldn't necessarily do it.

Just remember: you're always betting a number, not a side. So if you play fighter A -150 then fighter B (his opponent) +200, those are two separate things, even tho they're directly against each other in results
 
DevilsPt2 said:
It's not just about the money for me though, it's 90% about the money but I also like to be right too much to accurately describe. .
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betting is all about the $

Fantasy pickems and stuff for the other stuff
 
Does anybody know if lord gamblou has released his picks yet?
 
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