Apologies for the length of this but if you're interested...
Re: Calvillo vs. Gonzalez
I know that Cynthia Calvillo is a blue chip and is training with the Napoleonic grappling-dwarves in Sactown, but I'm telling you, DO. NOT. SLEEP. ON. PEARL HERE!
MY REASONING FOR RECOMMENDING A LOOK AT THE DOG HERE:
Making her sophomore outing, 29-year-old Latina Cynthia Calvillo (4-0) is going to be attempting to build off of what was — for all intents and purposes — a perfect performance against Amanda Bobby Cooper in her Octagon debut just last month.
Calvillo has only fought as a pro for about 8-months but she has a wealth of amateur experience dating all the way back to February 2011 and has long been lauded by the crew at TAM as a future star. In fact, Urijah Faber has boasted that when people need disciplined at the gym he forces them to spar with Calvillo as punishment.
Meanwhile, Gonzalez has competed professionally since 2012 and she too has a deep amateur history in the sport having racked up eight bouts before making the leap to full-time fighter. Riding a six-fight winning streak into her Octagon debut, Pearl has polished off five of her foes before the final bell with future UFC talent Cortney Casey being among the victims.
Though her mechanics are rough and a bit unkempt, Gonzalez is competent in the striking department. She is a former Golden Gloves champion. Pearl works behind an educated jab while often using her kicking game as a smokescreen to setup TD's. By launching a quick HHK she baits her opponent into raising their guard so that she can get in on their hips. A BJJ Purple Belt, Pearl's an astute grappler with good technique. However she has shown herself vulnerable to getting caught in submissions that she shouldn't. Still yet, she remains calm and uses proper fundamentals to extricate herself from the precarious position.
This is an excellent match put together by Sean Shelby (I assume) as both ladies are very similar in all pertinent aspects of the game. Specifically, age, height, reach, and experience among them. Truthfully, there isn't much separating these two on paper, but physically one lady might have a slight edge over the other. That lady is Calviillo. The edge? Wrestling.
That is to say, the most significant difference between these two as far as I can tell is the athleticism and explosive wrestling of Calviillo. While rudimentary in the standup, she has explosive takedowns, is terrific in scrambles and positively awesome with her back takes much like an early version of Kelvin Gastelum minus the Y chromosome.
In short, the two have basically been on regional can crushing tours, yet they can both have shredded their competition and can also claim victory over a legitimate opponent prior to joining the UFC. For Gonzalez it was besting the aforementioned Courtney Casey while Calvillo put a bow on her amateur career with a win over top bantamweight prospect Aspen Ladd.
Having said that, and favoring Calviillo, I do think that the odds are off. At +225 and climbing, I believe the value is on the underdog Gonzalez here. I actually cap Calviillo around -135 with the come back on Gonzalez being +140 at worst. Narrow as they are, Pearl isn't without a path to victory. Be it via strikes, sub. or by using her physicality to pick up two of three with top control.
Pearl +225 risking 1.70 units
For those who haven't seen it already, I highly recommend watching the aforementioned Gonzalez vs. Courtney Casey fight that took place early in their respective careers. The bout was just Pearl's third pro-fight yet you could already see that she was a diamond in the rough. The fight was an awesome back-and-forth grappling contest where both gals put on a helluva show!