UFC 207 - Nunes vs Rousey - Vegas

[Belgrade]

Btw haven't had a chance to read through the thread but I absolutely love Borg her at anywhere around evens. Pissed I didn't get in on him as a decent dog.

Think this the perfect style for him to show off his grappling. Smokable doesn't have very good tdd and a tendency to give up his back and bad positions on the ground at times.

I think we're gonna see vintage Borg here, getting pretty easy tds with his wrasslin and speed on his shots to put Smolka on his back and we all know how dominating Ray can be with his top game. Really like him to get on top consistently and either grab a sub or get a comfortable Dec here.

Louis is no joke obviously, hope it doesn't seem like I'm underestimating him, I just think Borg has a great matchup that fits his natural style perfectly.

I'm with ya homie. Any Smolka backers/devils advocates care to step forward?? After lots of looking I found my golden hen and am going BIG on this fight!

Smolka is extremely overrated on this forum and ive been waiting to fade him for AWHILE. Ben fought with absolutely zero fight iq and lost me money in that fight but I am so excited to win it back with Borg. I agree with basically all your points and am really struggling to find a path to victory for Smolka. I've been loving betting on fights where the opposite side has close to zero finishing opportunities and this is one of them.

I have a couple other thoughts but will wait to see if anyone does not agree.

 

[Oblivian]

I don't deny that Cody hasn't faced anyone like Cruz but how do we know Cruz is that much better than Cody. Cody is tough and hasn't shown any weak moments. I think Cruz will be faster no doubt but I don't think you can say the Almeida put out wasn't impressive. Almeida was one of the hottest prospects at the time.

I just think age and injuries could catch up to Cruz here and I like the Cody price.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Almeida's KO wasn't impressive or a good win, but I don't think it's that applicable to this fight. Almeida is pretty much the opposite of Cruz in that he doesn't use much movement, stays in the pocket, doesn't use takedowns, etc. Similarly with Mizugaki, he's been all about staying in the pocket lately. Not really very similar to Cruz. Garbrandt's power is touted mainly from those fights as his previous UFC fights didn't end very early.

I get the argument that Cruz hasn't fought anyone like Garbrandt, but man, with his extensive record, he's faced far more challenges. In general, I'll always favor the wrestler/grappler who has imposed his gameplan on damn near everyone over a less experienced guy who has not faced anyone even in the ballpark of Cruz. I'd entertain a guy like Rivera at current odds, but not Garbrandt. I just feel this is way too much too soon and honestly I don't see how he even deserves a title fight.

 

[waiguoren]

Brandon K picks:

Nunes
Cruz
Werdum
Lineker
Magny
Kim
Garcia
Smolka
Means
Vettori
Thatch

 

[wack3d]

woooow alot of money coming in on nunes. They're almost at evens now, crazy stuff

wow ya crazy jump on pinnacle.. straight from -156 to -120 rare to see that kinda jump in a line

 

[waiguoren]

I feel the young and hungry Vettori embodies the King's MMA mentality of ruthless pressuring very well.

I agree. Vettori impressed me with the submission over Uda, who is a legit BJJ black belt. Vettori has now submitted two BJJ black belts in a row and is training striking at one of the very top gyms. Werdum and Gastelum are his main sparring partners and they both say he is a future middleweight champion.

 

[Sham5916910]

You're selling me on Means.

Has anyone re-watched the Means v Magny fight recently? Seems like a similar stylistic match up, though it was 2 years ago

Yeah i did. Means had magny in trouble at least once possibly twice but cant remember. Basically if memory serves me right it looked like means was on his way to winning 2 rounds but then he got grapplefucked second half of the rounds especially in r3. In r1 and r2 means got back to his feet quick but in r3 magny had his back and what not tho so it took means a while to get up. But that part of r3 was what i really wanted to see. Means showed that he is no mug on the ground and defended very well. Cowboy can be really sloppy from top and means defo has the ability to reverse him after seeing how he defended against magny. He actually hit his own takedown on magny but it was right at the end of the round. Magny's ground control is a lot better than cowboys imo. Magny also normally protects himself well under fire so is hard to finish see lombard fight and also this fight. How cowboy reacts under fire is a big question mark for me.

For cowboy to win he needs to blanket means for 3 rounds and i just dont think his wrestling or top game is good enough especially against a man his size who has nasty elbows and great get ups.

Edit: Magny has really good td's from body lock cowboy is not so good from there.

 

[HumbleCoco]

You're selling me on Means.

Has anyone re-watched the Means v Magny fight recently? Seems like a similar stylistic match up, though it was 2 years ago

The magny fight surprised me. What it showed me is that magny won that fight with mostly lateral movement on the feet in the first two rounds - in the third he was hurt but managed to secure a takedown and control Means for the last few minutes.
In the first two rounds Means mostly did a good job of securing an overhook and turning himself off the fence.

Oliveria did show glimpses of using angles well that could give means trouble in the Hallmann fight, however that was the last time that he employed a gameplan that wasn't just forcing the clinch and working for takedowns. He does seem to have problems off his back, if Means manages the takedown albeit I don't see any easy position for that while he might be fighting himself off the fence. Bare in mind that even in the cowboy vs cowboy fight Oliveria did manage to overpower him into the fence.

This would be a great fight to livebet IMO, once we see if Means can effectively turn Oliveria that should be enough to turn the tide of the fight. This is with good reason a pick em fight.

Oliveria will have some success, but I feel that Means has some routes to success. Just has to turn him once and then sit just off the fence in the pocket - not engage a clinch - and nail Oliveria just like in his last outing with some of his beautiful work, and we might start to see the defeat crawl over Oliveria. Hopefully Means will gameplan some entrys to takedowns and use that to put Oliveria out. However, don't underestimate Oliveria, this could easily be one of those fights where we see means have success on the feet, but not enough to outdo time spent being controlled and Means backers have to swallow a bitter decision loss.

I think I will be backing Means here - although I do feel Oliveria is underrated somewhat with having such an ugly style, depending on the line I might have to make a small play on Oliveria by decision as well.

 

[mkess101]

2u on Werdum +175. Getting it while it's hot.

Red flags like this one and the ones from Cole last week don't just come along every event. Being able to share info like this as a community is exactly why I started coming to this forum, I love it

Can't blame those jumping on Doom here. Red flag for sure. I have a Cain dec bet at +190 but now don't like it so much. That said I'd still want to see how flabby (or in shape) Doom looks before betting him. If Cain is really in that bad a spot I can't believe he'd get medically cleared.

I was confident in this one but now...beats me.

 

[Sham5916910]

The magny fight surprised me. What it showed me is that magny won that fight with mostly lateral movement on the feet in the first two rounds - in the third he was hurt but managed to secure a takedown and control Means for the last few minutes.
In the first two rounds Means mostly did a good job of securing an overhook and turning himself off the fence.

Oliveria did show glimpses of using angles well that could give means trouble in the Hallmann fight, however that was the last time that he employed a gameplan that wasn't just forcing the clinch and working for takedowns. He does seem to have problems off his back, if Means manages the takedown albeit I don't see any easy position for that while he might be fighting himself off the fence. Bare in mind that even in the cowboy vs cowboy fight Oliveria did manage to overpower him into the fence.

This would be a great fight to livebet IMO, once we see if Means can effectively turn Oliveria that should be enough to turn the tide of the fight. This is with good reason a pick em fight.

Oliveria will have some success, but I feel that Means has some routes to success. Just has to turn him once and then sit just off the fence in the pocket - not engage a clinch - and nail Oliveria just like in his last outing with some of his beautiful work, and we might start to see the defeat crawl over Oliveria. Hopefully Means will gameplan some entrys to takedowns and use that to put Oliveria out. However, don't underestimate Oliveria, this could easily be one of those fights where we see means have success on the feet, but not enough to outdo time spent being controlled and Means backers have to swallow a bitter decision loss.

I think I will be backing Means here - although I do feel Oliveria is underrated somewhat with having such an ugly style, depending on the line I might have to make a small play on Oliveria by decision as well.

Nice bd. I think if means has some success standing each round the judges will side with that even if cowboy has more control time if he is just holding means against the fence. To win i feel cowboy needs to be able to smother him for every minute for 3 rounds and i just dont think he has the game to do it. A prime hendricks yes, woodley if he wrestled yes, maia yes but cowboy no. Joe merritt out hustled him four times but gassed probably due to the short notice.

 

[HumbleCoco]

Nice bd. I think if means has some success standing each round the judges will side with that even if cowboy has more control time if he is just holding means against the fence. To win i feel cowboy needs to be able to smother him for every minute for 3 rounds and i just dont think he has the game to do it. A prime hendricks yes, woodley if he wrestled yes, maia yes but cowboy no. Joe merritt out hustled him four times but gassed probably due to the short notice.

Positional control seems to vary wildly in the scoring judge to judge.I think Means has some deficiencies defensively too, he can get hit by Oliveria which might make this fight even closer, but yes Means should have more moments of clear success. Hopefully with some nice elbows on the break to really make Oliveria shrink away from his gameplan and allow Means to takeover the fight.

 

[HumbleCoco]

I'm yet to actually properly tape study on Ronda vs Nunes so my feelings may change (beyond the BJJ scout video which shows a clear fault in the clinch for Nunes). Having said that, I'm starting to become more and more confident in a Ronda submission bet, most likely R1. If this fight had happened before the Holm fight, even with exactly the same performances from her, these odds would have been absolutely insane. The narrative is hugely dictating the odds.
Of course, heft has to be put into the X-factors surrounding her mental game but she is coming back, and she is an athlete and competitor that I'm sure will bring herself when the lights go down in that octagon.
Again, I am yet to do a proper breakdown but this fight is seemingly going outside of the context of a singular, albeit devastating, loss.

 

[Card]

 

[jrleclerc88]

I'm yet to actually properly tape study on Ronda vs Nunes so my feelings may change (beyond the BJJ scout video which shows a clear fault in the clinch for Nunes). Having said that, I'm starting to become more and more confident in a Ronda submission bet, most likely R1. If this fight had happened before the Holm fight, even with exactly the same performances from her, these odds would have been absolutely insane. The narrative is hugely dictating the odds.
Of course, heft has to be put into the X-factors surrounding her mental game but she is coming back, and she is an athlete and competitor that I'm sure will bring herself when the lights go down in that octagon.
Again, I am yet to do a proper breakdown but this fight is seemingly going outside of the context of a singular, albeit devastating, loss.

I agree. Holm peices up rouser and made her miss so many shots. Holm and nunes are two different styles. Rouser also looks to be in great shape and taking training serious. Rousey at +130? Yup and likely heavy too

 

[Roads55]

woooow alot of money coming in on nunes. They're almost at evens now, crazy stuff

she's been getting bet for weeks, I lumped on at 2.75/2.63/2.5/2.37.

2.37 still available on her ML at numerous eu books, 2.5 with betbright if anyone has an account with them.

 

[Ukram]

Does anyone remember Cody using leg kicks effectively? I think Cody will have a tough fight if he doesn't use them against Cruz. I think the leg kicks TJ landed in their fight helped a lot.

Cody does land some solid low leg kicks, a couple of them would certainly change anyone's footwork, tj showed even one leg kick could slow down dom a bit. The issue is dom has some of the best footwork and defence going and he recovers and adapts well to his opponents. I suspect if Cody attempts to land his leg kicks, it just allows dom to hit a well timed take down on him also.
Also Cody tends to need to stand right in front of his opponents to land leg kicks, dom is constantly in and out of range with that footwork making it tricky for anyone to land.

If anyone could recommend any fights that exhibit either party on the feet that would be great.
So far this seems like an extremely close bout - I'm looking ahead to reading some previews, MMA vivi, Bookie Beatdown, to try to find that golden nugget.

What I might add is that I'm eyeing the over2.5 at 1.66 - yes it's not great value but I have faith that both men can avoid the submission, and if it does happen, it might happen to a gassed opponent in the final moments.

Such a tricky fight to break down, I don't rate borgs stand up that highly just basic striking set up to get the fight to the ground, smolka has better striking but not by much and he too uses it to get his ground game going. Borg also takes a bit too long to hit his reversals or transitions on the ground while smolka willingly gives up positions to get to better positions.

I too liked the o2.5 but even that is risky, borg and smolka are relentless looking for subs always and also both show good cardio. There really is no tape to predict or see how this fight goes well none that I could see. A good live bet fight for sure.

 

[northsofia]

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Almeida's KO wasn't impressive or a good win, but I don't think it's that applicable to this fight. Almeida is pretty much the opposite of Cruz in that he doesn't use much movement, stays in the pocket, doesn't use takedowns, etc. Similarly with Mizugaki, he's been all about staying in the pocket lately. Not really very similar to Cruz. Garbrandt's power is touted mainly from those fights as his previous UFC fights didn't end very early.

I get the argument that Cruz hasn't fought anyone like Garbrandt, but man, with his extensive record, he's faced far more challenges. In general, I'll always favor the wrestler/grappler who has imposed his gameplan on damn near everyone over a less experienced guy who has not faced anyone even in the ballpark of Cruz. I'd entertain a guy like Rivera at current odds, but not Garbrandt. I just feel this is way too much too soon and honestly I don't see how he even deserves a title fight.

Almeida KO was impressive for me too, but Almeida`s last fight was not what i was expecting for sure. Thomas is serious prospect but i think he is still not ready for the big fights. That takes me to your opinion, that Cody hasn`t even deserved to fight for the title and Cruz is going to dominate him through all of the fight. Just think it is too early for Cody to become a champion.

 

[sonhow]

How is Werdum? I know Cain is injured obviously but any word from Fabricios camp?
Come to think of it ...makes lot off sense to bet Werdum in this one. Injury > sea level. And it's not like their last fight was even that close one. Cain couldn't wrestle him at all and despite gassing..I don't think he looked that superior of a fighter in the first round. 2 and 3 were all Werdum obviously.

 

[NinjaCat456]

I agree. Holm peices up rouser and made her miss so many shots. Holm and nunes are two different styles. Rouser also looks to be in great shape and taking training serious. Rousey at +130? Yup and likely heavy too

The UK books are a bit slow to respond but to get Rousey at plus money would be crazy. She was eating these kind of fighters for breakfast before the Holm loss. Yes the loss was devastating but she just had a bad night, everyone has them. I think she subs Nunes in swift fashion.

 

[Joseph Budden]

I think you'd be amazed at how much of this goes on during training. As long as he's able to train then I'm not sure there is a huge problem.

I think the big concern is he has to stop using the mary jane this week. We'll see if he does an open workout and all that jazz, but this is def a concern imo

 

[Oblivian]

If he's on the weed then I expect him to have a really dumb gameplan, lazy camp, slow reflexes, come in heavy, etc.