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UFC 207 - Nunes vs Rousey - Vegas

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2u on Werdum +175. Getting it while it's hot.

Red flags like this one and the ones from Cole last week don't just come along every event. Being able to share info like this as a community is exactly why I started coming to this forum, I love it
 
joining the Werdum Wagon <cheer> 1u +194 (still +190 on pinnacle) 0.2u ITD +397
 
TimCoreCombat said:
I am getting this second hand from a friend that is a pro but I heard it is not very family like and very much like a bunch of mercenaries in that they are all there to make money. No real personal love.

TJ just seems to me to be a guy that needs a family to support him. Thats why he did so well at TAM. I don't think he has that t Elevation. I think in a lot of ways he wishes he still had TAM to train and support him while still making his money at Elevation but that's just my opinion.

I think he loses this fight.
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This is the vibe I get from watching their videos. Still on TJ though.
 
Well shit. I sorta hedged my Cain plays. And now the more I read it seems this crap is being taken out of context.
 
SBJJ said:
Well shit. I sorta hedged my Cain plays. And now the more I read it seems this crap is being taken out of context.
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Care to elaborate? Hard to see how having to use CBD oil to stand for more than 10 minutes at a time isn't a big red flag. Plus the surgery that he has scheduled, his history of pulling out of fights, etc.
 
Does anyone remember Cody using leg kicks effectively? I think Cody will have a tough fight if he doesn't use them against Cruz. I think the leg kicks TJ landed in their fight helped a lot.
 
Cptn1NSAN0 said:
Care to elaborate? Hard to see how having to use CBD oil to stand for more than 10 minutes at a time isn't a big red flag. Plus the surgery that he has scheduled, his history of pulling out of fights, etc.
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I think you'd be amazed at how much of this goes on during training. As long as he's able to train then I'm not sure there is a huge problem.
 
Man Cain is so good but he's so injury prone.
He probably is so good because he trains so hard.
He's probably so injured because he trains so hard.

You cannot win in MMA bless you're GSP. I hope he stays retired.
 
yeah i initially threw a large bet on tim means and cain, decided to hedge out. they're notorious for beating the crap out of each other at aka so wouldn't be surprised if cain had a serious injury.
 
I really wish these X-factors didn't linger over cain - that showing at 200 really made me feel he was a solid pick to come back against werdum - now I've made a small bet on werdum with the idea I might cash out if in fight week cain looks to be in good condition.

Borg and Smolka really intrigues me - I know this sounds completely stupid but I really feel like there's great value on someone if I could have the golden nugget of confidence of a winning strategy in either man. I am leaning Borg so far, Smolka gave up mount against ben nyugen within the first minutes of their fight - he readily admits he is a slow starter - I feel that Borg might be able to use that to gain momentum to reach a winning decision. Borg is also now with Jackson's, however, being it's the first camp there I don't believe its advantages will be fully realised in this outing, but the cool collected advice in the corner could be extremely valuable in holding to a gameplan versus the sometimes chaotic Smolka.

One possibility I see is Borg winning the ground exchanges - but they'll be just that - exchanges of progression of position to sweeps or scrambles and back to the feet. When standing, what tape watching I have done so far has left me still unclear on who might better the other. I see an outside kicking game of smolka but that seems only truly effective after ground work has demoralised his opponent, his opponents often dart inside after he throws in the early goings. On the other hand, Borg seems to have a simplistic boxing pressure style to work his way to the ground.

If anyone could recommend any fights that exhibit either party on the feet that would be great.
So far this seems like an extremely close bout - I'm looking ahead to reading some previews, MMA vivi, Bookie Beatdown, to try to find that golden nugget.

What I might add is that I'm eyeing the over2.5 at 1.66 - yes it's not great value but I have faith that both men can avoid the submission, and if it does happen, it might happen to a gassed opponent in the final moments.
 
piglord said:
yeah i initially threw a large bet on tim means and cain, decided to hedge out. they're notorious for beating the crap out of each other at aka so wouldn't be surprised if cain had a serious injury.
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You really like Tim means?

Playing devils advocate here but I'm watching tape now and I can see oliveira having success in the clinch.
Matt Brown had means pressed against the cage for a good minute or two with little trouble.
He's so physically strong at LW and WW.
He also has some recent experience fighting southpaws.

Not on Oli yet but may play him if I get dog odds again.

How'd both of these mother fuckers make 155 before?

Also John Howard vs means doesn't work for me on fight pass.
 
Tebowned said:
You really like Tim means?

Playing devils advocate here but I'm watching tape now and I can see oliveira having success in the clinch.
Matt Brown had means pressed against the cage for a good minute or two with little trouble.
He's so physically strong at LW and WW.
He also has some recent experience fighting southpaws.

Not on Oli yet but may play him if I get dog odds again.

How'd both of these mother fuckers make 155 before?

Also John Howard vs means doesn't work for me on fight pass.
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Im big on means. Yes the clinch threat is there but he wont win a dec holding means against the fence for 15 mins in 2016. Means also has some of the best elbows in the game so is clinching with means a great idea? Hes gonna catch you with something on entry or in the clinch at some point if you keep clinching. Means also nearly caught magny in a ninja choke when he was ducking in for a takedown so cowboy cant sleep on means sub gane. I watched means last eight ufc fights and win or lose he hurt every opponent at some point. Cowboy might get a takedown here or there too but cowboys takedowns are not that great and means has excellent get ups. Means holds every other advantage for me. I did a big breakdown on page 16 on this fight. Cowboy has gotten away with bullying people and making them gas so far due to his size advantage. He wont be able to bully means as hes fighting a top tier ww finally and means has great cardio. Means will bash cowboy standing cowboy carries his hands low and is very wild and carries his chin high. Means throws a great teep that takes the wind out of opponents sails too, and is one of the most effective fighters at using all 8 limbs which makes him very dangerous standing. Cowboy can be really sloppy from top too and lose position (see merritt and hallmann fights) and he is pretty hopeless off his back (cerrone and brooks effortlessly mounted him, hallmann held him down for a round) and means has an underrated ground game and throws vicious elbows from top position. Means is also very dangerous when someone is trying to stand back up see magny and perpetuo fights.

We've never seen how cowboy reacts under fire standing or what his chin is like so those questions will be answered here. I really dont like how he quit so quick against cerrone so under fire will be interesting to see how he reacts. He was 2 0 down against brooks and r3 ive just not taken into consideration as brooks was clearly done from the rib injury.

Re howard fight means bitches him. Howard manages two td's i think but means gets straight up. A lovely short left hook as hes angling off knocks howard out cold.
 
Anyone got any strong leans on Vettori vs Antonio Carlos Jr?

Currently feeling confident at the under 2.5 at 2.1.
I feel the young and hungry Vettori embodies the King's MMA mentality of ruthless pressuring very well. From that I see so many opportunities for a finish - whether it be the classic guillotine of vettori, the submission threat of Antonio from bottom, or a huge punch counter on the swarming Vettori should Antonio be forced into a fight.

As for a pick itself - I like a lot about Vettori and no matter the outcome of this fight I feel he has a great future but his style could well give a win to the ever underwhelming Antonio. I want to say that Vettori will bring back flash backs of previous losses to Dan Kelly and Patrick Cummins to Antonio, but the larger man just as easily clinch him into the fence and bring him to the ground. I think this is a pass situation thus looking at the under but if I had to, it would be horribly reluctant pick for Antonio.

As a fan - I sure as hell hope Vettori brings a pressure striking game like his teammate Gastelum and brings another exciting prospect to middleweight.
 
Sham5916910 said:
Im big on means. Yes the clinch threat is there but he wont win a dec holding means against the fence for 15 mins in 2016. Means also has some of the best elbows in the game so is clinching with means a great idea? Hes gonna catch you with something on entry or in the clinch at some point if you keep clinching. Means also nearly caught magny in a ninja choke when he was ducking in for a takedown so cowboy cant sleep on means sub gane. I watched means last eight ufc fights and win or lose he hurt every opponent at some point. Cowboy might get a takedown here or there too but cowboys takedowns are not that great and means has excellent get ups. Means holds every other advantage for me. I did a big breakdown on page 16 on this fight. Cowboy has gotten away with bullying people and making them gas so far due to his size advantage. He wont be able to bully means as hes fighting a top tier ww finally and means has great cardio. Means will bash cowboy standing cowboy carries his hands low and is very wild and carries his chin high. Means throws a great teep that takes the wind out of opponents sails too, and is one of the most effective fighters at using all 8 limbs which makes him very dangerous standing. Cowboy can be really sloppy from top too and lose position (see merritt and hallmann fights) and he is pretty hopeless off his back (cerrone and brooks effortlessly mounted him, hallmann held him down for a round) and means has an underrated ground game and throws vicious elbows from top position. Means is also very dangerous when someone is trying to stand back up see magny and perpetuo fights.

We've never seen how cowboy reacts under fire standing or what his chin is like so those questions will be answered here. I really dont like how he quit so quick against cerrone so under fire will be interesting to see how he reacts. He was 2 0 down against brooks and r3 ive just not taken into consideration as brooks was clearly done from the rib injury.

Re howard fight means bitches him. Howard manages two td's i think but means gets straight up. A lovely short left hook as hes angling off knocks howard out cold.
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You're selling me on Means.

Has anyone re-watched the Means v Magny fight recently? Seems like a similar stylistic match up, though it was 2 years ago
 
mkess101 said:
^^^^^And as I typed that he was at it again. EZ seriously, this fucking guy...
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lol this guys autistic or something, once he starts he wont stop, still sending me messages because I had bets on trump
 
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woooow alot of money coming in on nunes. They're almost at evens now, crazy stuff
 
Yesterday he send me a pm also.

He was perfectly nice to me though. :)


I was thinking, not sure what the forum rules say about it, but maybe we could have a general topic in the betting section where people can just shoot the shit? Sometimes conversations get cut short because you don't want to derail a thread too much. Having a general topic could maybe siphon off some of the noise we have been getting in the regular threads.
 
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