UFC 207 - Nunes vs Rousey - Vegas

[Agent Mulder]

Also saw Jouban butt raping Perry was the last straw for Robbie, huh? Wish he would of just kept to the fights and actually cared about helping others win instead of turning everything into a pissing contest. I really do think he has good insight, but never would share it with more than a post like "Jouban is garbage, his chin sucks, Perry punches hard". Oh well, his loss!

Yeah the worst part really is that Bricktop/Robbie had great insight. Too bad that he couldn't stop being a douchebag even after getting banned the first time.

 

[Shoulder]

I don't think we should buy in too much in the Ronda is a wreck-talk. She is a world class athlete with a bronze in the Olympics, she can handle this.

Someone who cant handle his shit is King Edmund, and I will forever fade anyone who trains there.

He won't tell Ronda to change anything up, make adjustments or give any kind of useful feedback or game plan. We know Ronda won't sharpen up her boxing, she'll just keep plodding forward running into the clinch, which should give a clear bike path to the victory for Nunes.

I don't really remember it completely, but isn't Davis a much more top heavy wrestler where Ronda rather actively look for subs? This would create more openings for Nunes to scramble out compared to the Alexa Davis fight? Or am I just remembering past fights wrongly?

 

[iGnP]

It could be. She has had losses in Judo in the past and has seemed to bounce back. However, if her head is into retiring and having babies and making movies then it spells trouble. Probably best to go with what SBJJ said and just pay attn to interviews leading up to the fight.

It just feels like Nunes has everything to gain and will be hungry as ever to beat the goat OTOH Honda is just back for another fight after her worst loss ever.

But at the same time, do you think Ronda would risk further tarnishing her legacy by taking this fight if she wasn't fully dedicated to it? if she was 50/50 on retiring I think she'd do it honestly

 

[iGnP]

Woah Robbie got banned?

 

[iGnP]

Who remembers the barry challenge? @iGnP

We should rename it the SBJJ challenge and add some balls to it. 5u bets (since none of us are trying to ball as hard as SBJJ) on your fave play of the card, first to 50u is recognized as the most gangsta bettor there is

Down

 

[LEMONZEST]

But at the same time, do you think Ronda would risk further tarnishing her legacy by taking this fight if she wasn't fully dedicated to it? if she was 50/50 on retiring I think she'd do it honestly

I hear what you are saying but....

I don't think fighters can easily see their career objectively the way you and I can see them. So many fighters hang around in the sport longer than they should and book a few unnecessary losses before hanging em up. Of course this is not a case of Honda being too old but the question remains is she going to be the same....?

Is Honda going to train hard? I give that an absolute yes.

Is Honda going to give 100% in the cage? I give an absolute yes to that as well.

I am not saying Honda is a train wreck but it may take some time for her to settle in to her former self and former confidence. It might only take a few minutes of the first round for her to get back into her groove.

Now to change gears a bit the other part of the equation is her overall game plan. If she sticks with ET then that is a red flag for me. I think the RR game planning of old is played out and many of the top level girls are hip to it. Go back and watch Tate/RR II - Tate was damn close to winning that fight if she didn't keep shooting and kept it on the feet. If Nunes just boxes with RR and avoids the clinch I think she has a somewhat easy path to victory.

And this is kind of where Ronda's mental fragility comes into play. If Nunes starts tagging her with a few shots standing in r1 and RR cannot establish the clinch then I can see RR wilting a bit - or just spazzing. Nunes has been known to be a 1r fighter but if she enters this fight with a longer term strategy to stick and move I think she can make RR look pretty bad. I believe Nunes has the boxing to beat up RR and we know RR isn't improving at all....just bringing the same game.

 

[Sham5916910]

Means cowboy thoughts.

How does Cowboy win? He will have to clinch against the fence and mix in takedowns. Only time cowboy has been content to stand is against burns due to the ground threat and hallmann where he had a clear advantage. He will not want to stand with means. The problem with a clinch and takedown heavy approach for someone like cowboy is his takedowns arent great, means is nasty with elbows and while means can be taken down his get ups are excellent. Ive never seen him down for more than 30 seconds. Cowboy can be really sloppy in transition too (see merritt and hallmann fights) and means has an underrated top game. He uses his elbows really well from top and he is very dangerous with his knees as you try to stand back up. Means also attempts the odd takedown so i would not be at all surprised if he decided to keep cowboy honest and try to put him on his back.

On the feet not many utilise all eight limbs like means. Cowboy has only really let his hands fly against burns and hallmann, but he only has a one inch reach advantage here compared to the massive reach advantage he usually has. Cowboy is really wild and the over exaggeration on his strikes leaves him open to be countered. He also holds his chin high when his throwing. Means is excellent at staying just out of range and throws a really effective teep to the body that wears on people as the minutes wear on. Means is a pressure fighter so it will be interesting to see how effective cowboy is on the back foot my suspicions are he will be ineffective trying to counter.

Is means going to be able to escape the clinch tho? Hard question to answer but im willing to bet he will. Cowboy likes to bully but here he is facing someone his size for the first time outside of cerrone. When means has been clinched in other fights he has shown good ability to disengage, and while cowboy is the most smothering guy he has faced as i said above he is the biggest guy cowboys faced and means loves a dirty in fight.

In short i think means' dangerous stand up in all facets, size and get ups are enough to carry him to victory. I also think means can take advantage of cowboys sloppy technique at times in transition and put a beating on cowboy from top if he gets there. Brooks and cerrone were able to mount him effortlessly and hallmann easily controlled him for a round from top. A big part of cowboys game is slowing people down and then taking over see Merritt and Moon fights. Merritt was short notice and moon gasses every fight means is a cardio machine. Brook was 2 0 up but the rib injury cost him the fight and i have no idea what kj was thinking fighting at 170. Good luck trying to wear means out and closing the distance constantly without getting busted up. Cowboys clinch and td strategy is not going to work against better comp as his takedowns are just not good enough nor is his ground game. Plus he will lose the strength advantage he has been using to bully everyone. Everyone he has beaten has been cut (brooks not but brooks lost that due to injury more than cowboy being the better fighter plus he came in 7lbs over weight) and hallmann and merritt have lost since being cut in other orgs. Love means price.

Edit: one other point is i watched all means' ufc fights since his second ufc stint 8 in total. And win or lose he had his opponent hurt at some point. Gonna be interesting to see what cowboy is like absorbing punishment and how he responds he hasnt taken any fire on the feet yet. I dont like how easily he tapped to cerrones triangle theres no way that was fully locked in.

 

[iGnP]

I hear what you are saying but....

I don't think fighters can easily see their career objectively the way you and I can see them. So many fighters hang around in the sport longer than they should and book a few unnecessary losses before hanging em up. Of course this is not a case of Honda being too old but the question remains is she going to be the same....?

Is Honda going to train hard? I give that an absolute yes.

Is Honda going to give 100% in the cage? I give an absolute yes to that as well.

I am not saying Honda is a train wreck but it may take some time for her to settle in to her former self and former confidence. It might only take a few minutes of the first round for her to get back into her groove.

Now to change gears a bit the other part of the equation is her overall game plan. If she sticks with ET then that is a red flag for me. I think the RR game planning of old is played out and many of the top level girls are hip to it. Go back and watch Tate/RR II - Tate was damn close to winning that fight if she didn't keep shooting and kept it on the feet. If Nunes just boxes with RR and avoids the clinch I think she has a somewhat easy path to victory.

And this is kind of where Ronda's mental fragility comes into place. If Nunes starts tagging her with a few shots standing in r1 and RR cannot establish the clinch then I can see RR wilting a bit - or just spazzing. Nunes has been known to be a 1r fighter but if she enters this fight with a longer term strategy to stick and move I think she can make RR look pretty bad. I believe Nunes has the boxing to beat up RR and we know RR isn't improving at all....just bringing the same game.

Yeah I agree w that. But playing matador like Holm did is pretty taxing. Nunes has to go in and finish Ronda early or else the fights gonna go to the floor and we're gonna see another armbar victory

 

[mkess101]

Yeah I agree w that. But playing matador like Holm did is pretty taxing. Nunes has to go in and finish Ronda early or else the fights gonna go to the floor and we're gonna see another armbar victory

Nunes is better on the mat now than she previously was imo. Maybe not RR level (okay, NOT on RR level) yet, but possibly good enough to escape one or two scrambles to get it back standing.

And her striking has gotten sharper too. She probably doesn't have the gas tank to implement a 5 round strategy like what Holm could do, but will she have to? If she circles and busts up RR a bit as Ronda tries to close distance, it's hard for me to not see Ronda going into panic mode again.

I leaned Rousey at first but now I'm really undecided. I'm kinda liking Nunes. You guys did a great job breaking down Rousey's psyche in terms of preparation and stuff, but her psyche in the cage is what would concern me more. Not that she won't fight hard (of course she will) but that if things aren't going her way she'll spaz again because she just doesn't have other weapons at her disposal. She's totally dominant if she can implement her gameplan of close distance, clinch, throw, sub. But when she can't? Will we see the wild flailing again? Nunes will light her up if we do.

 

[robot]

Im on

Alex garcia $10
Borg $12 (thought it was louis Gaudinot an not Smolka......)
TJ Killashaw - $35
Cruz - $40
Nunes - $20
Tim Means - $15

 

[Ukram]

Same way I see it happening nunes does have the striking and pop to give honda issues, but its not like nunes has not been taken down or laid upon in the past and she usually tires in r2 and r3 anyhow, she really does need an early finish here r1 or early r2 at most. I think if ronda survives to end of r2 depending on her condition she could take over.

Too many question marks also, ronda's bull rush style with hands barely up defending her cost her everything last time so lets see if she has made any improvements to her game. I also reckon ronda while has shown the cardio for 5 rounds, don't think it goes to championship rounds. Still like the r1-r2 finish plays here.

 

[Ukram]

Regarding cowboy/means

Means does get taken down often from single or double leg take downs, he got taken down twice even by short notice replacement fighter in sabah in his last fight. But cowboy has not shown wrestling of any kind his take downs come from strong body locks and against the cage often. Should be noted means pops right back up anyhow and is generally tricky to keep down.

One area of concern is how means deals with cowboys clinch game against the cage, cowboy pushes his head into opponents quite well to stuff movement so it will be interesting to see how means deals with this, id imagine he will be prepared for this but will have to see.

Otherwise I reckon means will be able to use his rangier technical striking on cowboy and be overall more successful in setting up his elbows and knees during clinch exchanges.

 

[iGnP]

Nunes is better on the mat now than she previously was imo. Maybe not RR level (okay, NOT on RR level) yet, but possibly good enough to escape one or two scrambles to get it back standing.

And her striking has gotten sharper too. She probably doesn't have the gas tank to implement a 5 round strategy like what Holm could do, but will she have to? If she circles and busts up RR a bit as Ronda tries to close distance, it's hard for me to not see Ronda going into panic mode again.

I leaned Rousey at first but now I'm really undecided. I'm kinda liking Nunes. You guys did a great job breaking down Rousey's psyche in terms of preparation and stuff, but her psyche in the cage is what would concern me more. Not that she won't fight hard (of course she will) but that if things aren't going her way she'll spaz again because she just doesn't have other weapons at her disposal. She's totally dominant if she can implement her gameplan of close distance, clinch, throw, sub. But when she can't? Will we see the wild flailing again? Nunes will light her up if we do.

That's essentially what I was getting at. But to play devil's advocate, didn't Holm concuss her early into the fight? That could be why she looked so erratic in there

 

[Oblivian]

Holm is a completely opposite version of Nunes standing. Holm uses a disciplined approach to use Ronda's aggression against her. Takedown defense is obviously on point due to distance control and discipline. Nunes can for sure KO Ronda, but it would look a lot different than the Holm fight IMO. I don't think we'll see Nunes really frustrating Ronda with movement and playing the matador.

 

[mkess101]

That's essentially what I was getting at. But to play devil's advocate, didn't Holm concuss her early into the fight? That could be why she looked so erratic in there

Not sure. Maybe? I know she broke her nose (with one of the first clean punches I think). I guess the thing with Ronda is that her plan A was a hell of a plan up until that Holm fight. She was Mariano Rivera. You knew what was coming, and couldn't do anything about it. But once plan A didn't work, it was truly amazing how there was literally NO plan B. Nunes is just a beast in rd 1 and can most likely bloody Ronda up by using movement and a hit and run strategy as Ronda tries to get close. She sometimes will be overly aggressive too but I just have to think she's a bit more measured in this fight. She (and the entire world) now KNOW that RR needs to get in tight or she's just screwed. So not doing Ronda's work for her is gonna be part of the gameplan.

But man there's just not anyone in that division that can handle Ronda's judo if she does get in close, and her transitions are just better than everyone else's by a pretty wide margin (even as good a grappler as Nunes is now).

I'm gonna bet this fight, but it's gonna be a pretty small play. I can't get a good feel for how this plays out at all.

 

[waiguoren]

However, if her head is into retiring and having babies and making movies then it spells trouble.

It just feels like Nunes has everything to gain and will be hungry as ever to beat the goat OTOH Honda is just back for another fight after her worst loss ever.

Also, preparing for the apocalypse. Not joking. Watch the Conan interview.

 

[waiguoren]

Woah Robbie got banned?

Prepare for "Top Brick" or "Robbie Top"

 

[null]

I also have a bet I made like 8 months ago on "Ronda Rousey to be champ on Dec 30th 22:00 CET" @ +400 - man that one stings.

Egads, that cut off time is so specific that it clearly was designed to exclude the UFC's year end day before NYE show.

 

[Tebowned]

Rewatching both Borgs and smolkas last few fights and I rally like Borg.
I think really highly of Borg though aside from his fight camp.

He arguably beat Dustin Ortiz and has dominated everyone he was supposed to aside from a taller and stronger Justin Scoggins.

Louis smolka will try to replicate scoggins gameplan but I don't think he has the defensive or offensive wrestling to do so.
I also think he doesn't have the physical strength to.

Borg has taken down everyone he's fought and Smolka practically has been taken down by everyone who has tried to take him down.
Smolka has one of the worst TDD at flyweight.

I see Borg taking him down repeatedly for 3 rounds and riding back control for a lot of it.

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

Rewatching both Borgs and smolkas last few fights and I rally like Borg.
I think really highly of Borg though aside from his fight camp.

He arguably beat Dustin Ortiz and has dominated everyone he was supposed to aside from a taller and stronger Justin Scoggins.

Louis smolka will try to replicate scoggins gameplan but I don't think he has the defensive or offensive wrestling to do so.
I also think he doesn't have the physical strength to.

Borg has taken down everyone he's fought and Smolka practically has been taken down by everyone who has tried to take him down.
Smolka has one of the worst TDD at flyweight.

I see Borg taking him down repeatedly for 3 rounds and riding back control for a lot of it.

My dude

Same thoughts pretty much. I think Borg's wrestling and grappling are being underrated here