UFC 207 - Nunes vs Rousey - Vegas

[Cptn1NSAN0]

I'm really big on Borg largely because Smolka has very poor distance management. Scoggins is in another world to Smolka in that department. He has his footwork on the outside and a counter punching game to prevent guys from walking him down that Smolka lacks, in addition to his lengthy side/hook kicks and bladed stance that naturally keeps him out of range and enables faster linear movement. Smolka frequently wades into the pocket aggressively with hooks, he lacks an effective jab to keep guys away, doesn't really know how to pivot. He has a side kick but he doesn't throw it in a way that's conducive to controlling distance, just randomly every now and then throws it to the head from close range. Paddy Holohan was able to clinch with him at will and Smolka couldn't do anything to stop it.

Agreed 100%, well said

 

[Sadistics]

I wish I could factor Magny's 11 inch reach advantage into my decision but he just doesn't seem to know how to use it effectively. They're both at -110 now, almost want to play Hendricks just for the line movement but I think I'll hold off.

Loving the overs on a lot of these fights, they're very reasonably priced.

 

[The MM Analyst]

Cruz/TJ parlay pays + odds. I hit it for 10 units.

 

[iGnP]

Have we discussed Cain-Werdum II yet? Cain by Dec at +180 is pretty nice imo

 

[mkess101]

I wish I could factor Magny's 11 inch reach advantage into my decision but he just doesn't seem to know how to use it effectively. They're both at -110 now, almost want to play Hendricks just for the line movement but I think I'll hold off.

Loving the overs on a lot of these fights, they're very reasonably priced.

Ha ha holy shit can't believe you just posted that. I just watched round 1 of Magny/Kelvin (again). Was gonna watch the whole fight but just too tired. The first time I was tracking the grappling more, this time wanted to see exactly what you were talking about. For the first half of rd 1 anyway, Magny uses his reach pretty well against Kelvin. Better than I remember. I need to watch the rest of the fight again (will do tomorrow) but at least early on he uses his jab nicely. It's mostly a pawing jab and not a stiff one, but it keeps Kelvin at bay and messes with his timing, that much is obvious. Magny then throws his straight right behind it a few times, landing a couple nice ones. He also throws jab, jab, and then feints throwing the right which makes Kelvin stop and reset. He does that 3 separate times and each time it's obvious it's affecting Kelvin's offensive gameplan. In addition, Magny twice uses a nice push kick that backs Kelvin up as Kelvin is attempting to advance.

Now, I'm not saying Magny is a master at using his reach. He's not Jon Jones. But I think it's a misnomer to say he can't use his reach or never has.

Don't get me started on what he did to Kelvin grappling in rd 1. Granted Kelvin ends up with moments of his own, but in rd 1 it's a grappling clinic by Magny.

 

[mkess101]

Have we discussed Cain-Werdum II yet? Cain by Dec at +180 is pretty nice imo

Yessssssir! On it at +190 already, posted why earlier in the thread homie.

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

Cruz/TJ parlay pays + odds. I hit it for 10 units.

I like it though, was planning on hitting it for 2u.

 

[Sadistics]

Ha ha holy shit can't believe you just posted that. I just watched round 1 of Magny/Kelvin (again). Was gonna watch the whole fight but just too tired. The first time I was tracking the grappling more, this time wanted to see exactly what you were talking about. For the first half of rd 1 anyway, Magny uses his reach pretty well against Kelvin. Better than I remember. I need to watch the rest of the fight again (will do tomorrow) but at least early on he uses his jab nicely. It's mostly a pawing jab and not a stiff one, but it keeps Kelvin at bay and messes with his timing, that much is obvious. Magny then throws his straight right behind it a few times, landing a couple nice ones. He also throws jab, jab, and then feints throwing the right which makes Kelvin stop and reset. He does that 3 separate times and each time it's obvious it's affecting Kelvin's offensive gameplan. In addition, Magny twice uses a nice push kick that backs Kelvin up as Kelvin is attempting to advance.

Now, I'm not saying Magny is a master at using his reach. He's not Jon Jones. But I think it's a misnomer to say he can't use his reach or never has.

Don't get me started on what he did to Kelvin grappling in rd 1. Granted Kelvin ends up with moments of his own, but in rd 1 it's a grappling clinic by Magny.

Fair enough, I usually don't get around to watching tape and go off memory. As you've got it fresh in your head, how were his getups against Kelvin??

 

[iGnP]

Ha ha holy shit can't believe you just posted that. I just watched round 1 of Magny/Kelvin (again). Was gonna watch the whole fight but just too tired. The first time I was tracking the grappling more, this time wanted to see exactly what you were talking about. For the first half of rd 1 anyway, Magny uses his reach pretty well against Kelvin. Better than I remember. I need to watch the rest of the fight again (will do tomorrow) but at least early on he uses his jab nicely. It's mostly a pawing jab and not a stiff one, but it keeps Kelvin at bay and messes with his timing, that much is obvious. Magny then throws his straight right behind it a few times, landing a couple nice ones. He also throws jab, jab, and then feints throwing the right which makes Kelvin stop and reset. He does that 3 separate times and each time it's obvious it's affecting Kelvin's offensive gameplan. In addition, Magny twice uses a nice push kick that backs Kelvin up as Kelvin is attempting to advance.

Now, I'm not saying Magny is a master at using his reach. He's not Jon Jones. But I think it's a misnomer to say he can't use his reach or never has.

Don't get me started on what he did to Kelvin grappling in rd 1. Granted Kelvin ends up with moments of his own, but in rd 1 it's a grappling clinic by Magny.

LOL cmon man. I understand Magny's won most of us a good deal of money in the past but you should look at his fights impartially. You have to take all of his best wins w a grain of salt. He beat Silva and Lombard when they gassed out after they wear clearly winning the fight and even though he beat Gastelum, he was getting worked late. His reach didn't really help him in the Larkin fight, did it?

I'm flip flopping on this fight only because I think Hendricks is gonna come in and shit the bed. He has one foot out the door already by making comments like 'if i lose to Magny im gonna retire'.

 

[iGnP]

Yessssssir! On it at +190 already, posted why earlier in the thread homie.

beautiful. prob my favorite bet on this card

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

LOL cmon man. I understand Magny's won most of us a good deal of money in the past but you should look at his fights impartially. You have to take all of his best wins w a grain of salt. He beat Silva and Lombard when they gassed out after they wear clearly winning the fight and even though he beat Gastelum, he was getting worked late. His reach didn't really help him in the Larkin fight, did it?

I'm flip flopping on this fight only because I think Hendricks is gonna come in and shit the bed. He has one foot out the door already by making comments like 'if i lose to Magny im gonna retire'.

He's already talking about his body not being able to "take it" anymore. Red flag city imo.

You can't really compare the way Larkin fights to Hendricks. Hendricks relies on basic 1-2 combos and overhands with some low kicks as far as striking, while Larkin is extremely dynamic, explosive, and 10x faster. He was able to close the distance on Magny so quickly. I don't see this as having any bearing on how well magny will use his reach against Hendricks.

 

[iGnP]

He's already talking about his body not being able to "take it" anymore. Red flag city imo.

You can't really compare the way Larkin fights to Hendricks. Hendricks relies on basic 1-2 combos and overhands with some low kicks as far as striking, while Larkin is extremely dynamic, explosive, and 10x faster. He was able to close the distance on Magny so quickly. I don't see this as having any bearing on how well magny will use his reach against Hendricks.

No no i didn't mean to compare Hendricks to Larkin. i think Magny's jab and overall striking isn't very good. Hes had a decent reach advantage against Silva, Lombard, Gastelum, and Larkin but were still able to land good shots on him regardless. Any real success he had in those fights came on the floor anyway

I wouldn't be surprised if Hendricks lands on Magny and hurts him but I question if Hendricks can last for three rounds. Unlike the fights against Lombard and Silva, though, I don't think Magny can take Hendricks down to secure later rounds. More so, I wouldnt be surprised if Magny cant get up if and when Hendricks takes him down. Maybe that means I'll just play Hendricks NSC if the price is right idk. Hendricks is red flag city but he's saying some good things too about knowing he needed change and that he needs to be fully invested

 

[Tebowned]

Don't read if you're sensitive. Slightly Racist lol.

Spoiler: Alex Garcia

Alex Garcia...

..Fought two dudes from Captain Phillips.

Somolia! Okay sorry about that. Yes I know that Hector Lombard in the first pic hehe.



Rewatching his fights now. Alex Garcia is not as bad as I thought he was. I was thinking about betting on Pyle but kind of changed my mind.
He Ko'd a bum quickly.
Got rocked twice versus sean spencer but managed to drop him and take him down at will otherwise.
He actually hurt his knee versus Magny and still managed take him down afterwards, lay n prayed bit, and took his back in the 3rd round. Arguably won that round.
Dominated swick and took him down at will.
Strickland fight was probably his worst performance but still managed to take him down a couple times.

His cardio is still shit but Pyle's cardio is not the best either. He doesn't really care about TDD. I see this being an ugly fight but Garcia just physically stronger.


EDIT
Also Pyle struggles with fighters with power.
The last guy he fought, Jordan Mein, Jake Ellenberger, Rory Markham, Rampage Jackson, nd Rick story ko'd him in the first and then woke him up and gassed. Took the fight on a week notice I believe.

 

[mrbaapt]

Lineker is a good bet with those odds.

 

[Tebowned]

Lineker is a good bet with those odds.

I respectfully disagree.

TJ IMO is the better striker, wrestler, grappler, he's faster, has better footwork, and will finally have a significant height advantage.
Besides the power and likely chin Lineker is out of his depth here.

 

[mkess101]

LOL cmon man. I understand Magny's won most of us a good deal of money in the past but you should look at his fights impartially. You have to take all of his best wins w a grain of salt. He beat Silva and Lombard when they gassed out after they wear clearly winning the fight and even though he beat Gastelum, he was getting worked late. His reach didn't really help him in the Larkin fight, did it?

I'm flip flopping on this fight only because I think Hendricks is gonna come in and shit the bed. He has one foot out the door already by making comments like 'if i lose to Magny im gonna retire'.

So for the record, that was literally half of a round I watched. I basically was looking to see if Magny, with both fighters fresh, was capable of using his reach at all. And he was. Even if you chopped off the second half of that round where it was Magny dominating grappling and ONLY scored it based on the standup (again, with both guys fresh), Magny got the better of it (fairly clearly). Again, very small sample size for sure but it's with both guys 100% fresh so it's not Magny relying on grit and cardio.

It's not a perfect match at all, but Kelvin is the closest thing Magny has fought to Hendricks which is why I'm focusing a little more on this fight. I plan to watch other fights of both guys too. I definitely need to rewatch Hendricks/Condit because I think in terms of body type and potentially what could happen if Johnny is able to implement a takedown game, that's the closest I can think of.

Larkin is a dynamic striker and one of the fastest guys at WW. With his speed and timing, getting inside Magny's reach was easy. Lombard even is just far more explosive and willing to eat a shot to get in close than Hendricks too.

And Kelvin having success late isn't exactly a red flag. Hell, Kelvin (who made weight and who's cardio held up fine obviously) is a damn good fighter. The fact that Magny won the grappling exchanges shocked a lot of people (it also shows just how dominant Maia's grappling is at WW).

But don't take this to mean I heavily favor Magny or think he's top 5 or anything. It's a fade on Hendricks and what we've seen from him lately (along with his commentary like you said) too. I favor Magny but not by a ton. But at evens he's the bet imo.

 

[mkess101]

Fair enough, I usually don't get around to watching tape and go off memory. As you've got it fresh in your head, how were his getups against Kelvin??

I'll rewatch rounds 2-5 tonight I think. I watched the whole fight more casually the other day but was doing other stuff too. In rd 1, Magny never tried to get up. He scored a big TD first, Kelvin did a nice job and got back to his feet. They clinched some more, Kelvin hit a beautiful spinning shoulder throw but Magny immediately swept to top position. From there he did some work, passed guard, eventually got mount. Kelvin gave his back and Magny ended the round in dominant position with both hooks in on Kelvin's back.

 

[mkess101]

Don't read if you're sensitive. Slightly Racist lol.

Spoiler: Alex Garcia

Alex Garcia...

..Fought two dudes from Captain Phillips.

Somolia! Okay sorry about that. Yes I know that Hector Lombard in the first pic hehe.



Rewatching his fights now. Alex Garcia is not as bad as I thought he was. I was thinking about betting on Pyle but kind of changed my mind.
He Ko'd a bum quickly.
Got rocked twice versus sean spencer but managed to drop him and take him down at will otherwise.
He actually hurt his knee versus Magny and still managed take him down afterwards, lay n prayed bit, and took his back in the 3rd round. Arguably won that round.
Dominated swick and took him down at will.
Strickland fight was probably his worst performance but still managed to take him down a couple times.

His cardio is still shit but Pyle's cardio is not the best either. He doesn't really care about TDD. I see this being an ugly fight but Garcia just physically stronger.


EDIT
Also Pyle struggles with fighters with power.
The last guy he fought, Jordan Mein, Jake Ellenberger, Rory Markham, Rampage Jackson, nd Rick story ko'd him in the first and then woke him up and gassed. Took the fight on a week notice I believe.

LOL.

Pyle's chin is shot imo. Garcia at these odds has to be the bet.

 

[Sham5916910]

LOL.

Pyle's chin is shot imo. Garcia at these odds has to be the bet.

Not watched tape on garcia to remind myself of him, but yeah pyles chin has been shot a long time and isnt he 41 now too.

 

[Shoulder]

We can talk all we want, but this should be a sign of something...