UFC 207 - Nunes vs Rousey - Vegas

[Rebel_LioN]

I'm solid on:

Nunes +140
Cruz -225
TJ -220
Means -110
Dong -125 (smh no more Asian bets)

I hate Ronda. WMMA is a crapshoot. That's it.

Cruz will Cruise.

TJ I feel will do what I thought Dodson was gonna do except TJ is better at mixing up his game plus TJ has wrestling in his repertoire unlike Dodson.

Whoever steps forward in Means/Cowboy will win. If Means is content with his back against fence Cowboy has a path but main reason I pick Means is because I'm not sold on Cowboy's hands down style.

Dong should be able to wrestle Saff along the fence like Story but we all know Dong isn't the cleanest striker and Saff could potentially hobble him with a few well timed leg kicks when he plods forward. It's the Asian factor here y'all they always let me down.

Considering but I'm not solid on these:

Vettori +120
Borg +110
Werdum +185

Vettori I'm a bit afraid of since he's so young I don't know if he has the savvy to keep from getting tangled up with Shoeface. He's mainly a grappler but if he's developing his striking at Kings with all those killer leftys, I believe he can pick up the W. Shoeface is very stiff in his striking he's got a couple go-to moves but he looks confused against a southpaw he doesn't know where to place his feet to land his strikes or whatever.

At first glance I was on board with Borg but having second thoughts considering he's at a 5 inch height AND reach disadvantage. The obvious path is to get the fight to the floor but Smolka is no slouch there. He should be the better wrestler but it's the scramble that Smolka likes to play and having to close such a long distance for Borg makes me feel like Smolka might have ample time to react to try and win said scrambles. That said, I don't think much of Smolka.

Cain injury rumors + HW factor is the only considerations + Werdum has a W over him already.

 

[Belgrade]

Up another 10k after last event, ive been on fire recently and really appreciate all the in depth discussions that happen in this thread.
Went nearly flawless with big bets on Sandoval, Bojan/Aliev over 1.5, Emmet, Colby, Faber.
Got lucky with a medium sized bet on Gall.

Only stumbled on Aldana (was really against betting her at first but you guys somehow convinced my dumbass) and a small bet on the over in the Waterson fight! The 1000000000th lesson ive had learn that WMMA is not my forte. If I ever cap a womens bout please ignore my post.

Unfortunately unlike the rest of you I have no strong leans this card and have a bad feeling my lucky streak is going to come to an end. I'm digging Dillashaw, Cruz,and Velasquez and still on the fence on whether or not to bet Garcia+Hendricks (i usually steer clear betting short/stocky fighters lol). But I still see clear paths of victory for each of their opponents and wouldnt be surprised by any outcome.


As of now ill be keeping it small unless theres any major changes or I uncover glaring holes during tape study.

 

[Turp11]

borg winning by decision is a little scary, he does like no damage its all about control from him. Theres a decent chance smolka does more damage in scrambles and on bottom position than borg does on top

 

[Stunna77]

Liking Means and DHK, but need to watch some tape still. Think Means can pick BC apart at range and use his elbows and knees in the clinch should he get pressed against the fence. He should be able to avoid spending too much time on his back and either win a decision or get an accumulation stoppage. Also like DHK to use his size and strength to bully Saff in the clinch. Saff is a super technical striker but doesn't have the power to back DHK up imo, so DHK will push forward into the clinch at will. Not going too big though since DHK has shown awful fight iq in the past.

Also waiting for weigh-ins but if Hendricks looks good and is still around evens I will be on him. Magny has the heart and continues to improve, but don't think he has the skills to beat an in-shape Hendricks, unless he is truly done.

 

[Timurd123]

Confidence neutralized at worse. It's always reassuring when a fighter seemingly on the decline knows it and is trying to figure out how to change it. He's human, has a family, etc. so I'm sure It's a lot to deal with and think about it but if he's back to making serious sacrifices to perform at the highest level he possibly can, I like that. Def still waiting for weigh ins though lol

Joe B its ridiculous that saying his body is pretty much broken from weight cutting and he cant use his prefered weight cutting methods shouldlnt affect your confidence in Hendricks

He looked absolutely physically shot in his last fight and this would be the last thing I would want to hear if I wanted to bet him

I hit Neil for 1.5u at openers (max)

And have added another 1.5u since

 

[Timurd123]

Yeah the worst part really is that Bricktop/Robbie had great insight. Too bad that he couldn't stop being a douchebag even after getting banned the first time.

Him arguing with people clogged up the threads and his obvious imature bias (that led to the aforementioned arguments) made it hard to trust in his capping since he often refused all points that differ from his

Plus he is one of those people I think is betting like $35 an event and is acting like he's betting $5000

Good riddance, he can join the growing pool of big talkers that came in, took over the thread then ran themselves off with poor results

 

[Officer_Brown]

for me smolka vs borg is unbettable. i'd like to bet smolka but he fights like an idiot sometimes and it cost him in his last fight as well. smolka has legit skills but you just cannot trust him anymore. borg is more calculated at least but less skilled imo.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Joe B its ridiculous that saying his body is pretty much broken from weight cutting and he cant use his prefered weight cutting methods shouldlnt affect your confidence in Hendricks

He looked absolutely physically shot in his last fight and this would be the last thing I would want to hear if I wanted to bet him

I hit Neil for 1.5u at openers (max)

And have added another 1.5u since

That doesn't mean there's not a different way for him to healthily cut, and if he's open to those alternatives like he seems to be and come weigh ins he looks better than he has, than I can take what he's saying seriously

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

I'm solid on:

Nunes +140
Cruz -225
TJ -220
Means -110
Dong -125 (smh no more Asian bets)

I hate Ronda. WMMA is a crapshoot. That's it.

Cruz will Cruise.

TJ I feel will do what I thought Dodson was gonna do except TJ is better at mixing up his game plus TJ has wrestling in his repertoire unlike Dodson.

Whoever steps forward in Means/Cowboy will win. If Means is content with his back against fence Cowboy has a path but main reason I pick Means is because I'm not sold on Cowboy's hands down style.

Dong should be able to wrestle Saff along the fence like Story but we all know Dong isn't the cleanest striker and Saff could potentially hobble him with a few well timed leg kicks when he plods forward. It's the Asian factor here y'all they always let me down.

Considering but I'm not solid on these:

Vettori +120
Borg +110
Werdum +185

Vettori I'm a bit afraid of since he's so young I don't know if he has the savvy to keep from getting tangled up with Shoeface. He's mainly a grappler but if he's developing his striking at Kings with all those killer leftys, I believe he can pick up the W. Shoeface is very stiff in his striking he's got a couple go-to moves but he looks confused against a southpaw he doesn't know where to place his feet to land his strikes or whatever.

At first glance I was on board with Borg but having second thoughts considering he's at a 5 inch height AND reach disadvantage. The obvious path is to get the fight to the floor but Smolka is no slouch there. He should be the better wrestler but it's the scramble that Smolka likes to play and having to close such a long distance for Borg makes me feel like Smolka might have ample time to react to try and win said scrambles. That said, I don't think much of Smolka.

Cain injury rumors + HW factor is the only considerations + Werdum has a W over him already.

Fight was a while ago but Cariaso had plenty of success getting around Smolka's height and reach advantages (he was also at a 6" disparity each.) Watching Smolka fight, he doesn't really use utilize those advantages from a defensive standpoint. He frequently lets shorter opponents into punching range and lets them in on his hips during exchanges.

 

[mkess101]

That doesn't mean there's not a different way for him to healthily cut, and if he's open to those alternatives like he seems to be and come weigh ins he looks better than he has, than I can take what he's saying seriously

The timing of his decline coincides fairly closely with USADA too though. I'm not saying he was/wasn't juicing, just that at the very least it has to be considered.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Fight was a while ago but Cariaso had plenty of success getting around Smolka's height and reach advantages (he was also at a 6" disparity each.) Watching Smolka fight, he doesn't really use utilize those advantages from a defensive standpoint. He frequently lets shorter opponents into punching range and lets them in on his hips during exchanges.

Well cariaso is at least a decent striker while I don't know what Borg can really do he's mainly been a grappler. I know he left NHB for 6 gun Gibson so I don't know what to make of that.

Again I'm leaning on him too but I don't have enough info to form a strong opinion. Trying to figure out who has the edge and where.

Smolka is a really good scrambler from what I learned he and Nguyen were all over the place like some Dragon Ball Z fight.

For sure there will be some squirrely moments in this fight when they tangle up.

 

[SBJJ]

The timing of his decline coincides fairly closely with USADA too though. I'm not saying he was/wasn't juicing, just that at the very least it has to be considered.

Think wise to just wait for weigh ins. I've gone to leaning Hendricks to leaning Magny or no bet

 

[Officer_Brown]

Think wise to just wait for weigh ins. I've gone to leaning Hendricks to leaning Magny or no bet

yeah we need to get ready to bet asap after the weigh in. if hendricks looks good the line will swing a lot.

 

[YoungScholar]

Egads, that cut off time is so specific that it clearly was designed to exclude the UFC's year end day before NYE show.

It sure is. Doesn't make me tilt any less tho'

 

[vkram]

Stylistically, Magny is a great matchup for Hendricks but there are so many other factors regarding Hendricks.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Remember what happened with Borg against Scoggins. He had no answer at range albeit Scoggins is pretty good at what he does but Borg just doesn't look like a comfortable striker yet.

He's young and he's going to develop that part of his game but it's anyone's guess how much he's progressed since then. He's got some athleticism and some speed that's forsure.

On another note we know Borg has a great shot and a good back take but it's what Smolka is comfortable doing too.

 

[vkram]

Remember what happened with Borg against Scoggins. He had no answer at range albeit Scoggins is pretty good at what he does but Borg just doesn't look like a comfortable striker yet.

He's young and he's going to develop that part of his game but it's anyone's guess how much he's progressed since then. He's got some athleticism and some speed that's forsure.

On another note we know Borg has a great shot and a good back take but it's what Smolka is comfortable doing too.

Smolka isn't a great striker either tbh. The majority of the fight will be on the ground IMO.

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

Well cariaso is at least a decent striker while I don't know what Borg can really do he's mainly been a grappler. I know he left NHB for 6 gun Gibson so I don't know what to make of that.

Again I'm leaning on him too but I don't have enough info to form a strong opinion. Trying to figure out who has the edge and where.

Smolka is a really good scrambler from what I learned he and Nguyen were all over the place like some Dragon Ball Z fight.

For sure there will be some squirrely moments in this fight when they tangle up.

That's precisely where I like Borg the most, he will favor positional dominance during those moments where Nguyen was keen to roll with the chaos. He's constantly looking for GnP and sub attempts to open up the opponents' guard but what I'm really impressed with about Borg is how he maintains control while doing that. Smolka's scrambling has looked excellent against guys who have poor top control, I believe a guy like Borg will take his back and keep it, and if he gets top control he should be able to pass Smolka's guard consistently.

After finishing tape review I plan on putting a flyer on Borg sub as well. Smolka gets stuck in deep sub attempts all the time and Borg locks up deep sub attempts a lot. I can definitely see him pulling a Moreno here, Smolka seriously leaves his neck out ALL the time.

 

[The MM Analyst]

Remember what happened with Borg against Scoggins. He had no answer at range albeit Scoggins is pretty good at what he does but Borg just doesn't look like a comfortable striker yet.

He's young and he's going to develop that part of his game but it's anyone's guess how much he's progressed since then. He's got some athleticism and some speed that's forsure.

I'm really big on Borg largely because Smolka has very poor distance management. Scoggins is in another world to Smolka in that department. He has his footwork on the outside and a counter punching game to prevent guys from walking him down that Smolka lacks, in addition to his lengthy side/hook kicks and bladed stance that naturally keeps him out of range and enables faster linear movement. Smolka frequently wades into the pocket aggressively with hooks, he lacks an effective jab to keep guys away, doesn't really know how to pivot. He has a side kick but he doesn't throw it in a way that's conducive to controlling distance, just randomly every now and then throws it to the head from close range. Paddy Holohan was able to clinch with him at will and Smolka couldn't do anything to stop it.

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

Remember what happened with Borg against Scoggins. He had no answer at range albeit Scoggins is pretty good at what he does but Borg just doesn't look like a comfortable striker yet.

He's young and he's going to develop that part of his game but it's anyone's guess how much he's progressed since then. He's got some athleticism and some speed that's forsure.

On another note we know Borg has a great shot and a good back take but it's what Smolka is comfortable doing too.

The keys to Scoggins' success in that fight were his movement and his distance. He is excellent at keeping his range with his kicks, using his footwork staying away from his opponent's strikes and takedowns, and his overall timing is great. Smolka doesn't even have comparable movement, range or timing. He gets clinched right up and tossed to the ground during exchanges pretty frequently.

Also Scoggins has good MMA wrestling, I believe Smolka does not.