UFC 205 - Conor vs Alvarez - NY

[Officer_Brown]

Damn. Was looking forward to Tim's return

The fight is still on. Helwani just reported.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Yeah "worst". I tink its nonsense to say that Belal out wrestles Luque. Lets wait and see. Ill fresh your memories after the contest.

I will 3 month sig bet you.

 

[Officer_Brown]

I will 3 month sig bet you.

Hmm okay lets see what @EzFlyer wants to do. If he refuses we can do it lol. I'll tell you sig terms later

 

[EzFlyer]

Im not Sig or av betting anyone. we need all of these flyers icons on the board.

@iGnP
Yes I think weidman will receive faborable officiating

 

[Joseph Budden]

Its gonna be hard not to favor Weidman. Not just cause of NY where they'll cheer everything he lands, but because Yoel just sits back and waits most of the time. Weidman will be pressuring and throwing more volume.

Also, yeah if anyone is going to get favored it'll be Weidman who spent years lobbying with politicians to get this done. Anyone on Yoel better hope none of those judges are east coasters lol

 

[Joseph Budden]

The fight is still on. Helwani just reported.

No its not...

 

[MMAJay]

hard to see romero winning any close rounds in NYC, tho

True about the close rounds in NYC and Romero does have a tendency to take it slow and give up a round. BUT it only take one of those crazy flurrys of Romero to win over a round if it stays on the feet. I don't think Romero will one punch KO Weidman, but he can most definitely put him on his ass and win the round by more damage even with a lower volume. If Romero hurts Weidman, he has the right killer instinct to stop him with the heavy GNP of his, and also one of the best wrestling bases, should Weidman go for the wobbled "panic wrestling".

You guys already mentioned some solid points about Romero's layoff, NYC disadvantage, Post USADA, age and so on, but with the line being where it is, I just HAVE to put down 1-2 units on Romero's ML. In my mind it would be crazy not too.

 

[MMAJay]

Machida was outstriking Romero until Romero decided to take him down (IIRC), and Weidman is on par with machida in terms of striking. I think the wrestling of both guys are negated, so Weidmans higher volume (plus its in NY), carries him to a decision.

You're true about that, but even with the better technique of Weidman, he most definitely has a speed disadvantage in the striking department. Weidman likes to push the pace, and doesn't set up his punches really good IMO. He also sometimes lack faints in his striking. He would have alot more succes against Romero if he would use the faints, but I see Romero connecting with his counter striking combined with his speed.

Just another thought. Weidman wants to redeem himself in this fight and put on a show on the big stage. Something that tells me that he perhaps can abandon some of his fighting IQ with this way of fighting/wanting to perform.

 

[iGnP]

@EzFlyer idk i guess im just a little skeptical about the NYC advantage when we have no prior instances to go off. Yeah, we see Diego win some decisions in NM and a lot of funny decisions happen in Brazil, but I personally cant factor that into capping, at least at this point. But at the end of the day, just as @Joseph Budden eluded to, I think the match up favors Weidman winning a decision anyway because of Yoel's counterstriking tendency and Weidman's forward movement.

 

[Bands]

muhammad is the better boxer and better wrestler, IMO, and he's faced better competition as a whole.. this is short notice for luque and i don't think the guys he's been beating have him ready for this, personally. i jumped all over muhammad -135

I can see why you'd pick Belal but I don't see much value on his odds. Honestly it's a tough fight to call, I do think Luque is the better fighter all around and definitely the more dangerous one too. Belal is an undersized WW with no punching power and his wrestling isn't on the same level as Graves'. Main concern for Luque is the short notice combined with Belal's toughness and cardio. Haven't done my proper research yet but I am liking the dog so far.

 

[vkram]

The fight is still on. Helwani just reported.

It's not, he retweeted a couple of articles saying its off. I think he said that Rashad is fine meaning that there aren't any serious health concerns.

 

[PuertoRican]

I will 3 month sig bet you.

You already have a sig bet with me for 3 months...

Don't make bets your butt can't cash.

 

[chemmy]

You already have a sig bet with me for 3 months...

Don't make bets your butt can't cash.

A screen name bet on lay-a-way? I've been on MMA forums since the late 90s and this is the first time I've seen that

 

[chemmy]

True about the close rounds in NYC and Romero does have a tendency to take it slow and give up a round. BUT it only take one of those crazy flurrys of Romero to win over a round if it stays on the feet. I don't think Romero will one punch KO Weidman, but he can most definitely put him on his ass and win the round by more damage even with a lower volume. If Romero hurts Weidman, he has the right killer instinct to stop him with the heavy GNP of his, and also one of the best wrestling bases, should Weidman go for the wobbled "panic wrestling".

You guys already mentioned some solid points about Romero's layoff, NYC disadvantage, Post USADA, age and so on, but with the line being where it is, I just HAVE to put down 1-2 units on Romero's ML. In my mind it would be crazy not too.

I completely agree. Hometown advantage (in more ways than 1) plus cardio, age and tentativeness concern me, but I'm playing Romero here too. Weidman could absolutely pull it out, but it seems like really tough stylistic matchup for him.

 

[PuertoRican]

 

[Officer_Brown]

fook this hooker guy, annoying breakdowns. stating the fuckin obvious things all the time. tired of this

 

[michi972]

Anyone on Michael Johnson/JJ ITD?

 

[BigNick100]

So nice to have a card where I don't need to look at tape of unknown fighters.

Just my initial input, I like two dogs on this card.

I like Romero, and I also like Woodley.

I've always thought Weidman was a little overrated. Yes he beat Anderson, but Anderson was slowing down and was due for a lose. And Weidman was a stylistically bad matchup for Anderson.

He then beat Machida, who looked good at the time at MW but Machida hasn't looked that great since, losing 2 out of his last 3. That was not prime Machida he fought.

Then he fought Vitor, who we all know is a shell of himself.

When he fought Rockhold, someone that can match his youth, speed and wrestling, he lost.

I believe Romero will be able to take down Weidman to be honest. He is faster and stronger then Weidan IMO. I am concerned about Romero gas tank in the 3rd, so I will hedge a Weidman round 3 win. I like the Romero ML, DEC prop and a Weidman round 3 hedge.

I like Tyron Woodley. I believe this could be the most explosive fighter Wonderboy has fought. I can see Woodley using a lot of clinch work against the fence and try to take down Wonderboy. I feel Woodley will pressure Wonderboy and try to turn it into a grind it out fight. He will not want to stay at range with Wonderboy, where Wonderboy would have the advantage. I do fear Woodley slowing down, so I may hedge a round 4 and 5 prop bet for Wonderboy. But I can see Woodley coming in explosive and rocking Wonderboy or grinding him out for a DEC.

 

[lawmills2006]

Absolutely gutted for Evans/Kennedy being scrapped, saw Evans as having most value on card.

Now my main action lies on Miller if Alves looks dreadful at weigh in. Unsure about MJ, finding it difficult to pull trigger against Khabib

 

[MidgardSerpent]

Yeah, Evans/Kennedy is a bummer. Really liked the fight going to a decision, given the type of fighters they are I thought the given price was great. Got a bunch of parlays with holes in them now.