UFC 205 - Conor vs Alvarez - NY

[lawmills2006]

Very intelligent post

My initial lean for weidman that mostly stemmed from the cardio problems of weidman.... he's getting better and dancing for 3 minutes around before he goes bananas and starts "fighting" lol

Buti do think we are ignoring a big angle here of the flat out glaring gap in who's a monster

Weidman clearly had difficulty with luke who is also a monster

Just a bigger stronger guy

I do think weidman has a huge gap in grappling and Bjj. I just don't know if he's strong enough to get him down and keep him there over and over.

I've been trying to be more value oriented with my bets and more singles less parlays and I think straight up at plus 150 Romero is probably the right side

I thought the Rockhold fight was down to the body kicks which Weidman just didn't want to defend. Weidman did win the first round. Definitely got him so tired he threw that super sloppy kick in the third. I just don't think Romero poses the same striking threat/range that Rockhold did

 

[Creech]

The only dogs I'm really liking on this show are Miller and Romero. I generally only play odds of 1.8 (-125) or better (tried and tested rule) so I'm hunting for solid over/under props to parlay with the faves I like. Picked out Carmouche / Chookagian Over 2.5 @ 1.45, Tate / Pennington Over 1.5 @ 1.3 and JJ / KK over 2.5 @ 1.25 so far.

I'm also liking McGregor by Dec @ 9.0 (+800) against my better judgement because it came up for me last time.

 

[LEMONZEST]

I am definitely hesitant to play Romero tho the value does seem to be on him.

Age is the big factor being 39. Previously he has said that it is so hard to train as he is in pain everyday etc.

He hasn't fought for almost a year and I think post USADA Romero could be interesting as he was "surely" juicing in some form.

I think if a good version of Romero shows up he can beat Weidman but there are a lot of unknowns betting on an old explosive type fighter. I will probably play Romero small like 1-2 units max and take Weidman by decision if I play Weidman at all.

 

[Joseph Budden]

In regards to Weidman vs Yoel

I'm on goes the distance at +120. I think that's way off. Both guys extremely tough and both have been 3 rounds or close to it more than enough times to see value there.

 

[Officer_Brown]

muhammad is the better boxer and better wrestler, IMO, and he's faced better competition as a whole.. this is short notice for luque and i don't think the guys he's been beating have him ready for this, personally. i jumped all over muhammad -135

wasnt held better boxer and wrestler too than diego? lol

Belal didn't look good vs Montano who is the biggest journeyman ever after Artem. I can bet my life savings that Luque dominates him in wrestling and on the ground.

 

[EzFlyer]

In regards to Weidman vs Yoel

I'm on goes the distance at +120. I think that's way off. Both guys extremely tough and both have been 3 rounds or close to it more than enough times to see value there.

hard to see romero winning any close rounds in NYC, tho

 

[LEMONZEST]

I didn't get to see the Held/Diego fight but I don't think there was any talk of Held being a better boxer...

Belal is primarily a boxer so if it is 3 rounds of standup then I do think he will have an advantage unless Luque catches him.

 

[EzFlyer]

wasnt held better boxer and wrestler too than diego? lol

Belal didn't look good vs Montano who is the biggest journeyman ever after Artem. I can bet my life savings that Luque dominates him in wrestling and on the ground.

you're right, i don't know what i'm talking about with mma, new to this

held lost because of cardio, which i said 100x could happen, and i barely lost any $ on the fight. he almost finished diego in rd 1, too

 

[Joseph Budden]

hard to see romero winning any close rounds in NYC, tho

Was between hitting that or Weidman decision and while I agree with you, I went with decision cause the neck surgery has me too worried for Weidman. I've never heard of a neck surgery that wasn't serious and I think Rick Story's head is more centered than ever since returning from his, so it's a concern to me

 

[cCrown]

 

[Sham5916910]

Will they seek a replacement? Should be a few takers for this card

 

[cCrown]

Will they seek a replacement? Should be a few takers for this card

really short notice though but yeah fighters are probably itching to get on this card. Why not get anderson silva again lol. Let him save the day like he did with ufc 200

 

[EzFlyer]

bahhh, i was liking rashad ML and DEC prices i had, oh well

 

[null]

Damnit, Rashad at +205 had serious value.

 

[PuertoRican]

Maybe Leites or Jotko can take Rashad's place since they're scheduled to fight 1 week later.

Jotko was training with Tristar at one point. If he's still with them, that means he'd be in Canada right now and wouldn't have to travel far to New York.

 

[Officer_Brown]

you're right, i don't know what i'm talking about with mma, new to this

held lost because of cardio, which i said 100x could happen, and i barely lost any $ on the fight. he almost finished diego in rd 1, too

Fancy one small sig bet for fun? Ill back up Luque you have Belal? That's how confident I am

 

[Joseph Budden]

Damn. Was looking forward to Tim's return

 

[AffectEffect]

wasnt held better boxer and wrestler too than diego? lol

The worst handicapper in the thread "lol"ing at the best. Can't make this shit up.

 

[Officer_Brown]

The worst handicapper in the thread "lol"ing at the best. Can't make this shit up.

Yeah "worst". I tink its nonsense to say that Belal out wrestles Luque. Lets wait and see. Ill fresh your memories after the contest.

 

[iGnP]

hard to see romero winning any close rounds in NYC, tho

You think there's gonna be a NY bias for Weidman?