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UFC 205 - Conor vs Alvarez - NY

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Really cant see Romero win this fight. Even if he takes Weidman down i dont think he can keep him there for long. And if the fight is a standup battle Weidman is goin to win easily. Romero`s gas tank is not the best that is for sure, even if he takes the first i cant see him take one more. He will start ti slow down in the late 2nd or in the 3rd and he is going to be very easy task for Chris. Not going to be suprprised if Chris takes the third with 10-8
If e remeber corectly Wiedman was crushing Rockhold apart before that spinning shit he threw. Romero is tough fighter that is for sure, but Weidman is more well rounded, more technical, younger and faster. Weidman DEC is my choice for now.
 
Don't forget Romero just won against Souza, even though it was a close fight and could have gone either way.
 
FOTN props are out on William Hill. I see good value in Alvarez vs McGregor at 6.00.

edit: I misread, it's only 4.00
 
northsofia said:
Really cant see Romero win this fight. Even if he takes Weidman down i dont think he can keep him there for long. And if the fight is a standup battle Weidman is goin to win easily. Romero`s gas tank is not the best that is for sure, even if he takes the first i cant see him take one more. He will start ti slow down in the late 2nd or in the 3rd and he is going to be very easy task for Chris. Not going to be suprprised if Chris takes the third with 10-8
If e remeber corectly Wiedman was crushing Rockhold apart before that spinning shit he threw. Romero is tough fighter that is for sure, but Weidman is more well rounded, more technical, younger and faster. Weidman DEC is my choice for now.
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Not really agreeing or disagreeing with you, but keep in mind that Romero's last 4 stoppage wins have come in the third round.

EDIT: Also, I would not say that he was crushing Rockhold by any stretch. Winning, probably, but crushing, no.
 
BigNick100 said:
So nice to have a card where I don't need to look at tape of unknown fighters.

Just my initial input, I like two dogs on this card.

I like Romero, and I also like Woodley.

I've always thought Weidman was a little overrated. Yes he beat Anderson, but Anderson was slowing down and was due for a lose. And Weidman was a stylistically bad matchup for Anderson.

He then beat Machida, who looked good at the time at MW but Machida hasn't looked that great since, losing 2 out of his last 3. That was not prime Machida he fought.

Then he fought Vitor, who we all know is a shell of himself.

When he fought Rockhold, someone that can match his youth, speed and wrestling, he lost.

I believe Romero will be able to take down Weidman to be honest. He is faster and stronger then Weidan IMO. I am concerned about Romero gas tank in the 3rd, so I will hedge a Weidman round 3 win. I like the Romero ML, DEC prop and a Weidman round 3 hedge.

I like Tyron Woodley. I believe this could be the most explosive fighter Wonderboy has fought. I can see Woodley using a lot of clinch work against the fence and try to take down Wonderboy. I feel Woodley will pressure Wonderboy and try to turn it into a grind it out fight. He will not want to stay at range with Wonderboy, where Wonderboy would have the advantage. I do fear Woodley slowing down, so I may hedge a round 4 and 5 prop bet for Wonderboy. But I can see Woodley coming in explosive and rocking Wonderboy or grinding him out for a DEC.
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I'm not so sure if we will see Woodley going that way even tho it makes sense. He really believes in his explosiveness and power and rightly so, so i think he will try and catch WB in r1 standing. When that doesn't work, which IMO it won't but of course he has a very good punchers chance, i think he will be picked apart as he tires and resorts to sporadic spurts of explosiveness while spending the rest of the time very static with his back to the cage. Woodley does not respond well to being backed up see Rory fight and r3 of Gastelum fight. As soon as he starts backing up this fight is as good as over IMO.

Don't sleep on WB's tdd either. Hendricks couldn't get him down and he subsequently easily disengaged from the clinch, and Rory one of the best MMA wrestlers in the sport was easily stuffed on the odd occasion he attempted a takedown. We haven't seen Woodley's wrestling since the Condit fight.

WB can mix up how he fights too. He came out and blasted Hendricks while he was far more conservative against Rory. Who knows how WB comes out in this fight. You would have expected him to be conservative against Hendricks with his power and lay it more on Rory but he did the complete opposite and it worked great in both cases. Will be very interesting to see his approach to this fight.
 
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northsofia said:
Really cant see Romero win this fight. Even if he takes Weidman down i dont think he can keep him there for long. And if the fight is a standup battle Weidman is goin to win easily. Romero`s gas tank is not the best that is for sure, even if he takes the first i cant see him take one more. He will start ti slow down in the late 2nd or in the 3rd and he is going to be very easy task for Chris. Not going to be suprprised if Chris takes the third with 10-8
If e remeber corectly Wiedman was crushing Rockhold apart before that spinning shit he threw. Romero is tough fighter that is for sure, but Weidman is more well rounded, more technical, younger and faster. Weidman DEC is my choice for now.
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chris weidman is coming off a surgery to repair herniated discs in his neck. perhaps he is close to 100 percent but im assuming there is a good chance that he is not
 
t6p said:
Not really agreeing or disagreeing with you, but keep in mind that Romero's last 4 stoppage wins have come in the third round.

EDIT: Also, I would not say that he was crushing Rockhold by any stretch. Winning, probably, but crushing, no.
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2 of this 4 fights was against guys who are not even close to Weidman and the other 2 are gassed Kennedy and Machida, who is far from his best. If i remember corectly Romero gased in the 3rd against Souza and his chin saved from being KO`d. I think Weidman will be very hungry for that win and we will watch high fighting pace from the beginning which favour Chris.

Weidman has the home advantage also which i think must not be underistmated.
 
Off topic - but what's with the election thread getting locked already?
 
northsofia said:
2 of this 4 fights was against guys who are not even close to Weidman and the other 2 are gassed Kennedy and Machida, who is far from his best. If i remember corectly Romero gased in the 3rd against Souza and his chin saved from being KO`d. I think Weidman will be very hungry for that win and we will watch high fighting pace from the beginning which favour Chris.

Weidman has the home advantage also which i think must not be underistmated.
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Again, I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, I'm simply stating a fact to consider. Romero certainly gassed against Jacare, but he did unload in the first round looking for the finish. In a 5 rounder I'd have to heavily favor Chris, but in a three rounder I kind of like the current price on Romero.
 
Random fact:

All 3 black guys are underdogs on this card. All 3 are known to be fast and explosive.

I'm on MJ +240 and Yoel +150 for the upset but I haven't got myself to play Woodley yet. If odds drop down closer to -140 or evens for Thompson I'm playing him but right now it's tempting for Tyron at +170.

(I know Yoel is Cuban but he's black)
 
northsofia said:
Really cant see Romero win this fight. Even if he takes Weidman down i dont think he can keep him there for long. And if the fight is a standup battle Weidman is goin to win easily. Romero`s gas tank is not the best that is for sure, even if he takes the first i cant see him take one more. He will start ti slow down in the late 2nd or in the 3rd and he is going to be very easy task for Chris. Not going to be suprprised if Chris takes the third with 10-8
If e remeber corectly Wiedman was crushing Rockhold apart before that spinning shit he threw. Romero is tough fighter that is for sure, but Weidman is more well rounded, more technical, younger and faster. Weidman DEC is my choice for now.
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Are you a Weidman fan? You sound a smidge biased. If you are, stay impartial.
 
Rebel_LioN said:
Random fact:

All 3 black guys are underdogs on this card. All 3 are known to be fast and explosive.

I'm on MJ +240 and Yoel +150 for the upset but I haven't got myself to play Woodley yet. If odds drop down closer to -140 or evens for Thompson I'm playing him but right now it's tempting for Tyron at +170.

(I know Yoel is Cuban but he's black)
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3 leg ebony parlay - I am on it.
 
Barkus said:
Off topic - but what's with the election thread getting locked already?
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i figured the election's over.. and not that you're in the wrong to ask about it whatsoever, but we're not a political forum, we're a betting forum!

is there still political stuff to bet? limited or otherwise? use the non-mma thread, if that's cool
 
I don't trust yoel, guys a known cheater be it what roids or just sitting on a stool, he also conserves energy and comes out in burst randomly like osp or takes minutes or a round off, it just makes a difficult match up for many guys like souza found out, add that weidman has been off for the same amount of time as yoel (almost 1 year both fought on aldo/mcgregor card) and coming off a neck surgery, there is some value in yoels decision prop I reckon.

But otherwise if a healthy and good wiedman turns up he should stick to his basics and get the better of yoel here, I just hate betting against yoel his style is tricky at best.
 
People, if you want to bet Thompson, Thompson by KO/DEC is 1.72 in 365bet which looks great imo compared with his 1.50 ML. The diference in the lines is absurd.

Woodley R1 +700.
Woodley R2 +1400.

He will have dificulties winning in the last rounds or by DEC so an early finish is his best chance for Woodley and It pays very well
 
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