UFC 205 - Conor vs Alvarez - NY

[cagebrain]

man was chook wearing heels? size difference looked substantial.

she had to have been. She was dressed quite nice so I'd expect so according to her clothes.

 

[cagebrain]

During the era where he was a top 5 guy at WW he missed weight a few times so its normal to have concerns despite his frame

sure, but he was roiding hard. He looks way slimmer now. Although I feel he can make 155 well according to his current size, you may have a point that he may not have the best weight cutting strategy (that Brazillian Barao/Olievera weight cut...) that could weaken him...

In any case, waiting till weigh ins

 

[Joseph Budden]

sure, but he was roiding hard. He looks way slimmer now

Not denying that. We get a lot of 'USADA' talk with fighters in here sometimes, this is one of the instances i'd vehemently agree lol just saying missing weight is nothing new to Thiago. So it won't, and shouldn't, be surprising if he does so.

 

[cagebrain]

Not denying that. We get a lot of 'USADA' talk with fighters in here sometimes, this is one of the instances i'd vehemently agree lol just saying missing weight is nothing new to Thiago. So it won't, and shouldn't, be surprising if he does so.

yep yep, agreed. I just edit my post with the same thought while you were typing yours. You reply too god damn fast!

 

[PuertoRican]

man was chook wearing heels? size difference looked substantial.

Weidman is still 6'2, while Romero is still 5'10.

There's a reason why one guy looks lean and in-shape when he cuts weight, while the other guy looks like a superhero. Also, there's a big difference in leg size. Romero and Lombard have the same build, in that they're both jacked Cubans with massive legs and are short for their respective divisions.

 

[Ukram]

Jeremy stephens looked massive compared to frankie, guy must balloon up like multiple weight classes afterwards, still reckon frankie too fast and precise for him he only fails in championship fights lately everything else he wins.

 

[Polarize]

You can trust him when you consider his performance vs Lauzon was his best in a long time. At least thats how I feel.

That doesn't help me to trust him, I thought he lost the fight, yesterday saw that fight again and he lost R2 and 3 imo, close fight. But anyway, Alves is not Lauzon.

Something I forgot, Miller's cardio is not very good, he gets very tired R3, Alves R3 +1400 could be good.

 

[Barkus]

U watching the market? Media wrong once again

Hahaha yup. That's what I wanted to discuss.

 

[piglord]

Not denying that. We get a lot of 'USADA' talk with fighters in here sometimes, this is one of the instances i'd vehemently agree lol just saying missing weight is nothing new to Thiago. So it won't, and shouldn't, be surprising if he does so.

those pre-usada alves pics are hilarious - those traps and shoulders were drawn by marvel comics.

 

[Timurd123]

Whe he fought Kos and Hughes he was the biggest WW in the UFC, dude had crazy speed too

 

[Sham5916910]

Ok watched tape on chook carmouche. After watching her ronda and andrade fights i really thought i was gonna take carmouche but her fight iq is terrible. She took andrade down multiple times and battered her from top. Andrade's over aggressiveness played into carmouche's hands i feel tho in terms of making takedowns easier to come by. Then she fights davis is soundly out struck and doesnt attempt one takedown all fight wtf! Davis did have her on the backfoot all fight tho which limited her clinch against the cage and takedowns off the cage game. I cant see chook being on the front foot all fight shes more a hit and move type. Then carmouche fights tate and goes back to her wrestling and wins the best part of r1 and r2. Her last fight against murphy (which she was lucky to win imo) no takedown attempts until r3 and of the three she secured in r3 two of them were reactive from murphy attempting takedowns in the clinch. What is interesting is murphy physically bossed carmouche in the clinch while chook besides when she was taken down in r2 managed to reverse and/or disengage from the clinch each time against murphy.

Is carmouche going to look for takedowns or be happy to stand? Hard to no but she gets out struck all day. Carmouche has solid takedowns and could win this fight with two takedowns over three rounds but chook showed against a physically stronger opponent in murphy she can hold her own against a strong bw in the clinch and stuff her td's.

Chook ml is too steep id need -130 but her dec line is def worth a play. Her footwork will make it difficult for carmouche to clinch against the fence and she is a far superior striker. Carmouche dec is def worth a play too but she should have 4 losses in her last 5 so i have to favour the surging young up and comer.

 

[EzFlyer]

finally settling on the angle i like on wonderboy vs woodley. i do have that small bet on twood RD1 (0.1u +750 hehe) -- but i like wonderboy -5.5 -130 here

compare it to the ML which is -200, and seemingly getting steeper..

the ML wins where -5.5 loses ONLY if it's 10-5, 9-6, or 8-7 specifically on the judges' cards (mix of one 49-46 & two 48-47, or 3 48-47's or split 48-47's)

everywhere else, they both win or both lose on same conditions.

and it's 70 cents on the dollar more (-200 vs -130)

we're talking about wonderboy, who just 50-45'd rory macdonald.. and mma math be damned, but rory easily 30-27'd twood in a technical striking matchup, utilizing jab, etc...

i'm on wonderboy -5.5. either a KO or a dominant decision is how i see it. i think if twood doesn't land a rd 1 bomb (and i do have that tiny stab on that), that's what's gonna happen.

 

[Joseph Budden]

finally settling on the angle i like on wonderboy vs woodley. i do have that small bet on twood RD1 (0.1u +750 hehe) -- but i like wonderboy -5.5 -130 here

compare it to the ML which is -200, and seemingly getting steeper..

the ML wins where -5.5 loses ONLY if it's 10-5, 9-6, or 8-7 specifically on the judges' cards (mix of one 49-46 & two 48-47, or 3 48-47's or split 48-47's)

everywhere else, they both win or both lose on same conditions.

and it's 70 cents on the dollar more (-200 vs -130)

we're talking about wonderboy, who just 50-45'd rory macdonald.. and mma math be damned, but rory easily 30-27'd twood in a technical striking matchup, utilizing jab, etc...

i'm on wonderboy -5.5. either a KO or a dominant decision is how i see it. i think if twood doesn't land a rd 1 bomb (and i do have that tiny stab on that), that's what's gonna happen.

I really like that line too. Have some on WB unan dec +410, happy to hit that too. Add a pseudo hedge on T Wood round 1 and i'm done with this fight

 

[Rebel_LioN]

I really like that line too. Have some on WB unan dec +410, happy to hit these too. Add a pseudo hedge on T Wood round 1 and i'm done with this fight

I have a parlay of T ferg, MJ, and WB decision +352,

except that when I placed the bet, 5dimes made a typo saying:

$100.00 $2,982.64 Pending 3 Team Parlay
Win 11/5/16 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Tony Ferguson +120* vs Rafael dos Anjos
Pending 11/12/16 6:00pm UFC Fighting 1701 Michael Johnson +210* vs Khabib Nurmagomedov
Cancelled 11/12/16 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1111 Thompson wins inside distance +352*vs Not Thompson by 5 round decision

So they just cancelled the leg as a whole instead of just fixing the typo and subsequently changed the odds to +258. It pissed me off but I guess I'll just take the shorter parlay if MJ cashes.

 

[Polarize]

I agree with your analysis Sham. To add some info: Chookagian is golden gloves PA and brown belt BJJ under Renzo Gracie. She trains with Edgar, Barboza, Alvarez too...

Nick Kalikas said in his podcast Chookagian is a better bjj fighter than Carmouche and Carmouche only path to victory is L&P for 3 rounds lol.

Spoiler: Chookagian BJJ

 

[iGnP]

finally settling on the angle i like on wonderboy vs woodley. i do have that small bet on twood RD1 (0.1u +750 hehe) -- but i like wonderboy -5.5 -130 here

compare it to the ML which is -200, and seemingly getting steeper..

the ML wins where -5.5 loses ONLY if it's 10-5, 9-6, or 8-7 specifically on the judges' cards (mix of one 49-46 & two 48-47, or 3 48-47's or split 48-47's)

everywhere else, they both win or both lose on same conditions.

and it's 70 cents on the dollar more (-200 vs -130)

we're talking about wonderboy, who just 50-45'd rory macdonald.. and mma math be damned, but rory easily 30-27'd twood in a technical striking matchup, utilizing jab, etc...

i'm on wonderboy -5.5. either a KO or a dominant decision is how i see it. i think if twood doesn't land a rd 1 bomb (and i do have that tiny stab on that), that's what's gonna happen.

Same. Prob the best play on that fight

 

[Soccer Steve]

we're talking about wonderboy, who just 50-45'd rory macdonald.. and mma math be damned, but rory easily 30-27'd twood in a technical striking matchup, utilizing jab, etc...

I said (nearly) the same thing ITT and got panned for it. Life must be EZ for you...

 

[mkess101]

finally settling on the angle i like on wonderboy vs woodley. i do have that small bet on twood RD1 (0.1u +750 hehe) -- but i like wonderboy -5.5 -130 here

compare it to the ML which is -200, and seemingly getting steeper..

the ML wins where -5.5 loses ONLY if it's 10-5, 9-6, or 8-7 specifically on the judges' cards (mix of one 49-46 & two 48-47, or 3 48-47's or split 48-47's)

everywhere else, they both win or both lose on same conditions.

and it's 70 cents on the dollar more (-200 vs -130)

we're talking about wonderboy, who just 50-45'd rory macdonald.. and mma math be damned, but rory easily 30-27'd twood in a technical striking matchup, utilizing jab, etc...

i'm on wonderboy -5.5. either a KO or a dominant decision is how i see it. i think if twood doesn't land a rd 1 bomb (and i do have that tiny stab on that), that's what's gonna happen.

I think we are all on this one LOL. I have it straight and in a couple parlays. It's the best play on the fight for sure. I do like the UD line of +410 too, played that after Joe B pointed it out.

 

[EzFlyer]

I said (nearly) the same thing ITT and got panned for it. Life must be EZ for you...

hehe it happens, lots of posts especially on big events. people say things i've alrdy said all the time!

 

[cagebrain]

Weidman is still 6'2, while Romero is still 5'10.

There's a reason why one guy looks lean and in-shape when he cuts weight, while the other guy looks like a superhero. Also, there's a big difference in leg size. Romero and Lombard have the same build, in that they're both jacked Cubans with massive legs and are short for their respective divisions.

He was asking about Chookagan and Carmouche, not Weidman and Romero