UFC 205 - Conor vs Alvarez - NY

[Russ82]

I like to splurge on the big events.

10k on Conor @ 1.65
5k on MJ @ 3.69
5k on Romero @ 2.30

Might drop some on Woodley later. MJ, Romero, Woodley all big, strong black guys with fast twitch muscle fibers in their primes. Always good value in that.

Someone please tell me how Khabib gets close to MJ when he was getting tagged hard by Horchell. I will be surprised if he lasts two minutes.

 

[cagebrain]

I like to splurge on the big events.

10k on Conor @ 1.65
5k on MJ @ 3.69
5k on Romero @ 2.30

Might drop some on Woodley later. MJ, Romero, Woodley all big, strong black guys with fast twitch muscle fibers in their primes. Always good value in that.

Someone please tell me how Khabib gets close to MJ when he was getting tagged hard by Horchell. I will be surprised if he lasts two minutes.

the counter argument is he was out for 2+ years and may have had some ring rust.

Not saying im betting Khabib, but yeah thats the prevailing counter point.

 

[null]

I like to splurge on the big events.

10k on Conor @ 1.65
5k on MJ @ 3.69
5k on Romero @ 2.30

Might drop some on Woodley later. MJ, Romero, Woodley all big, strong black guys with fast twitch muscle fibers in their primes. Always good value in that.

Someone please tell me how Khabib gets close to MJ when he was getting tagged hard by Horchell. I will be surprised if he lasts two minutes.

Ballsy wagers. Khabib was able to take down Horcher multiple times though. Do you think that MJ's hands are so good that he KOs Khabib that fast, really? And if not, is MJ's takedown defense good enough to keep Khabib off him?

 

[mkess101]

I like to splurge on the big events.

10k on Conor @ 1.65
5k on MJ @ 3.69
5k on Romero @ 2.30

Might drop some on Woodley later. MJ, Romero, Woodley all big, strong black guys with fast twitch muscle fibers in their primes. Always good value in that.

Someone please tell me how Khabib gets close to MJ when he was getting tagged hard by Horchell. I will be surprised if he lasts two minutes.

Woodley's "fast twitch muscle fibers" still had him looking clueless vs Rory due to footwork and the ability of Rory to use and gauge distance. And Wonderboy is better at that than Rory (maybe better than anyone in MMA aside from Dom Cruz). What are you thinking T Wood's best path to victory is here?

Otherwise I'm on the same guys as you though. I like Conor early, MJ by KO or dec, same with Romero.

 

[Stunna77]

Just watched Diaz vs McGregor II for the first time (I know I am a little late lol). Few thoughts:

McGregor has amazing timing, counters, set-ups and distance control while he is fresh. He carries big power and is amazing precise. However this only lasts for 7-8 minutes before he loses steam. He still has his timing and decent counters, but he loses the pop behind his punches and a lot of his technique. He got pretty sloppy in the later rounds and was barely holding on in round 3. He was repeatedly backed into the cage, with ease, and accepted that position for long period of time.

What this means against Eddie...I think if Eddie has a good gameplan and Mark Henry has his boxing and footwork on point, he will last the first round, round and-a-half and then be able to push Conor against the cage, beat him up in the clinch, complete takedowns and ground and pound him for a finish. Thinking to play Eddie ML, ITD and hedge with McGregor Round 1.

 

[Russ82]

Ballsy wagers. Khabib was able to take down Horcher multiple times though. Do you think that MJ's hands are so good that he KOs Khabib that fast, really? And if not, is MJ's takedown defense good enough to keep Khabib off him?

I think Khabibs boxing is terrible. It is a bad matchup for him. Mj is too fast.

 

[mkess101]

Just watched Diaz vs McGregor II for the first time (I know I am a little late lol). Few thoughts:

McGregor has amazing timing, counters, set-ups and distance control while he is fresh. He carries big power and is amazing precise. However this only lasts for 7-8 minutes before he loses steam. He still has his timing and decent counters, but he loses the pop behind his punches and a lot of his technique. He got pretty sloppy in the later rounds and was barely holding on in round 3. He was repeatedly backed into the cage, with ease, and accepted that position for long period of time.

What this means against Eddie...I think if Eddie has a good gameplan and Mark Henry has his boxing and footwork on point, he will last the first round, round and-a-half and then be able to push Conor against the cage, beat him up in the clinch, complete takedowns and ground and pound him for a finish. Thinking to play Eddie ML, ITD and hedge with McGregor Round 1.

Don't you think Eddie would be better off looking to clinch, wall n stall, possibly level change for TD's early? Avoid a distance striking match when Conor is fresh. Eddie has nice offensive boxing but he's so damn hittable. Seems to me like he'd be better off tiring Conor out early by trying to lean on him. Once Conor gets a little tired then maybe look to box a bit more.

 

[burge13]

Miller/Alves Fight of the Night +1100? Should be an exciting fight...
Obvious pick is the main event obviously at +250 where I am.
I don't think Wonderboy/TWood or any chick fight win it.

 

[mkess101]

Miller/Alves Fight of the Night +1100? Should be an exciting fight...
Obvious pick is the main event obviously at +250 where I am.
I don't think Wonderboy/TWood or any chick fight win it.

What's Cerrone/Gastelum? That might end up really entertaining.

 

[burge13]

What's Cerrone/Gastelum? That might end up really entertaining.

+500. I agree but only if Cerrone is winning. Gastelum winning will need to be a grind where as the other 2 fights should be exciting no matter what imo

Playing all 3 I don't think you'll miss. Don't like playing that market usually, let alone 3x hoping to win!

 

[mkess101]

+500. I agree but only if Cerrone is winning. Gastelum winning will need to be a grind where as the other 2 fights should be exciting no matter what imo

Playing all 3 I don't think you'll miss. Don't like playing that market usually, let alone 3x hoping to win!

Fair point. I think the days of Cerrone being unwilling to really press the action if he's not getting the better of it are over. And I don't think Kelvin will be able to hold him against the fence much at all.

That said +500 isn't as good as I'd hope with that many fights on the card. If 5d has +700 or better I'll bite.

 

[Stunna77]

Don't you think Eddie would be better off looking to clinch, wall n stall, possibly level change for TD's early? Avoid a distance striking match when Conor is fresh. Eddie has nice offensive boxing but he's so damn hittable. Seems to me like he'd be better off tiring Conor out early by trying to lean on him. Once Conor gets a little tired then maybe look to box a bit more.

Absolutely. I just re-read my post and realized I did a real shitty job of getting all points across. I meant if his boxing and footwork is on-point he will be able to stand and trade long enough to get in on Conor, clinch and make him work enough to tire him without getting caught. After that it will be easier to push him back against the cage, takedowns will be there more often and the punishment in the clinch and on the ground will add up. Also agree though if he tires Conor out he could have more success boxing, but he would be smart to avoid that phase as much as possible until he knows Conor doesn't have much on his punches.

 

[Polarize]

Thompson by DEC pays +300 365bet, Fight goes DEC or draw +600. No fucking sense. I'm betting 0.5u, the line is wrong but let's gonna see if they don't correct that.

 

[Sham5916910]

I agree with your analysis Sham. To add some info: Chookagian is golden gloves PA and brown belt BJJ under Renzo Gracie. She trains with Edgar, Barboza, Alvarez too...

Nick Kalikas said in his podcast Chookagian is a better bjj fighter than Carmouche and Carmouche only path to victory is L&P for 3 rounds lol.

Spoiler: Chookagian BJJ

Not sure i agree with Nick there. Maybe in pure BJJ but this is not pure BJJ. Chook was held down rather easily by Murphy in r2 and Chook didn't show much from her back. Still im on Chook dec, Carmouche inactivity doesn't help either.

 

[Sham5916910]

Thompson by DEC pays +300 365bet, Fight goes DEC or draw +600. No fucking sense. I'm betting 0.5u, the line is wrong but let's gonna see if they don't correct that.

WTF lol

 

[Sham5916910]

Wonderboy KO or dec -130? WTF! Im already big on WB but im gonna have to throw a unit on that. A WB sub would be shocking incredible line in comparison to his ml.

 

[Polarize]

Not sure i agree with Nick there. Maybe in pure BJJ but this is not pure BJJ. Chook was held down rather easily by Murphy in r2 and Chook didn't show much from her back. Still im on Chook dec, Carmouche inactivity doesn't help either.

Yeah, I was surprised when he said that and even more when he said Carmouche only can win by L&P considering how polite he speaks about all fighters.

 

[northsofia]

Wonderboy KO or dec -130? WTF! Im already big on WB but im gonna have to throw a unit on that. A WB sub would be shocking incredible line in comparison to his ml.

This prop with Woodley in 1st round and i think i am done with this fight.
Also like Eddie/Conor o2.5 rounds @2.10

 

[Brick Top]

Woodley's "fast twitch muscle fibers" still had him looking clueless vs Rory due to footwork and the ability of Rory to use and gauge distance. And Wonderboy is better at that than Rory (maybe better than anyone in MMA aside from Dom Cruz). What are you thinking T Wood's best path to victory is here?

Otherwise I'm on the same guys as you though. I like Conor early, MJ by KO or dec, same with Romero.

Wonderboy is hittable, just saying

The ghost of Ellenberger dropped him so its not exactly out of the realm of possibility that Woodley could

 

[Sham5916910]

Wonderboy is hittable, just saying

The ghost of Ellenberger dropped him so its not exactly out of the realm of possibility that Woodley could

I'm big on WB but this is my main concern. I was actually surprised how much WB gets hit when i watched tape. But...i have to strongly favour someone who has never been knocked out in over 70 documented kickboxing/MMA fights even tho Woodley is a big puncher. Woodley is also one dimensional - right hand rinse and repeat and he probably only has a two round window to knock WB out before he slows and power decreases. I have to strongly favour someone with WB's variety compared to Woodley's Hendo approach.

I also think the psychological approach here is important. WB is not used to losing one defeat in over 70 fights and that was because he had no wrestling something he now has (and he almost had Brown out of there). I think WB is going to have the mental edge here IMO Woodley wanted a big payday against Diaz or GSP (great stylistic fights for him) before he faced WB as he knows deep down there's a good chance he won't be champ after this fight. WB has also beaten two big punching wrestlers already. Ok they aren't as explosive as Woodley but there's still a common denominator there. As a few have already mentioned mma maths doesn't normally apply but here i think it does. The way Rory handled Woodley and how WB handled Rory is very telling IMO.