UFC 205 - Conor vs Alvarez - NY

[Brick Top]

Only researched first 2 fights properly and love Luque and Miller at + odds

Alves will be so drained and Belal is overrated

 

[Officer_Brown]

Only researched first 2 fights properly and love Luque and Miller at + odds

Alves will be so drained and Belal is overrated

yeah. Luque is legit and he most likely outgrapples Muhammad if he wants.

 

[Brick Top]

yeah. Luque is legit and he most likely outgrapples Muhammad if he wants.

Yeah I think he might even KO him

I'd go ridiculously big on Vincente Luque NSC @ -200 or over if I could

 

[Polarize]

Only researched first 2 fights properly and love Luque and Miller at + odds

Alves will be so drained and Belal is overrated

I liked Luque as dog too, but not sure after watching tape.
Luque has more ways to win imo, 4 years younger 3''reach edge and more KO power, Muhammad is more like a DEC machine.

Muhammad looked pretty hittable and flat footed vs Jouban but his comeback in the 3round was amazing after 3 knockdowns. I have to put an asterisk in his fight against Jouban, it was his UFC debut in short notice right? He was doing Ramadan too! plus Jouban is a good fighter (southpaw too). His cardio and chin are excellent and I like his fight IQ.

I favor Muhammad on the feet but not by a large margin. I can see a close fight R1/2 with Muhammad winning the third clearly.

What happens if the fight goes to the ground?

Muhammad is a blue belt in BJJ with no wrestling background (not sure about that, I tried to find some info) but ranks a lot of times means nothing. From what I saw he has good takedowns and decent BJJ but Luque should had the edge in BJJ (brown BJJ) right? (I never trained BJJ so my knowledge is limited). I think this fight goes the distance but if ends ITD likely is Luque by SUB imo. What do you think?

My biggest concern about Luque is his TDD, I don't see him being outwrestled like Graves did but Muhammad could steal rounds with takedowns and top control.

Not sure how to bet this fight, thinking maybe Muhammad DEC and Luque sub depend on odds. Waiting to see the ML movement too.

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I'm betting Chookagian 2u at 1.57 (-175) and Chook DEC 0.60u at 2.40. Big edge in striking/cardio/pace, my only concern is Carmouche being the bigger fighter. Chook should be fighting in 125lb or lower, I saw her fight in some grappling matches and she was thinner.

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Miller vs Alves. First of all, I want to see Alves making the weight. He was a monster in WW. If he makes the weight and is in good shape he is a terrible match up for Miller imo. But that's a lot of "if"

I remember Alves being submited by Kampmann after a terrible mistake in a fight he was winning. And right now he's in no man's land in a new division, 0 confidence. Miller is declining imo too.

 

[Sham5916910]

Who else likes Jim Miller here. Look closely Thiago's record. His last good win was Mein. But he was losing that fight until he pulled off that monsterous kick. Alves going weight class down and is probaly off steroids now. Ring rust also. I see Miller getting the W here.

Latest thiago sighting

Is it me or does Alves not look right at his new weight?!

 

[Officer_Brown]

Is it me or does Alves not look right at his new weight?!

off roids bro. he couldn't make 155 for years and now suddenly after USADA he can? hmm...

 

[Sham5916910]

Researched Tate Pennington. Obviously Pennington standing advantage and Tate ground advantage. My concern re Pennington is her tdd is not the greatest and she is too easy to close the distance on and be controlled against the fence. Even in her last fight Phillips made her fight her fight - a clinch/takedown battle against the fence. Tate is a big step up from Phillips and Tate will win a prolonged clinch/takedown battle. Tate is also very good from top. If Tate gets top control I can see her maintaining position until the round ends. Pennington whilst being a good striker lacks power to really put Tate off closing the distance. I will hit Tate dec for sure. She only needs to secure two takedowns across three rounds to win this.

 

[Sham5916910]

off roids bro. he couldn't make 155 for years and now suddenly after USADA he can? hmm...

Oh yeah definitely off gear. I gotta agree with people liking Miller. I might play Miller dec. Stylistically it's a horrible fight for Miller but Alves' inactivity, first cut, off gear, gas tank are massive factors to consider. Will be a great lb fight too as it will probably be a close fight.

 

[piglord]

personally i think alves smashes miller but there's not much value on him. can't knock a dog play on miller with all the questions on alves.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Who else likes Jim Miller here. Look closely Thiago's record. His last good win was Mein. But he was losing that fight until he pulled off that monsterous kick. Alves going weight class down and is probaly off steroids now. Ring rust also. I see Miller getting the W here.

Latest thiago sighting

looking super small. Confidence increase my Miller decision play +400

 

[lawmills2006]

This is def a post weigh in betting card.

Rashad, Miller, Luque are all valid plays dependent on weigh in results.

Keeping a keen eye on how Alves comes out, as I love the look of the Miller Dec line

 

[EzFlyer]

Belal Muhammad -165
Vicente Luque +125

I think I like Luque here, gonna wait to see if I can get a better price though.
Thoughts?

muhammad is the better boxer and better wrestler, IMO, and he's faced better competition as a whole.. this is short notice for luque and i don't think the guys he's been beating have him ready for this, personally. i jumped all over muhammad -135

 

[LEMONZEST]

^^ I am with EZ on this one and favour Belal. I think Belal has better movement and boxing overall. Luque is more looking to close the distance and hit really hard. Belal can just move around and (hopefully) outbox him for 3 rounds. If Luque goes hard looking for the finish in r1 he is going to be in trouble.

I am not super into capping simply based on records but its not a coincidence that Belal is 10-1 and Luque is 10-5.

 

[MMAJay]

I haven't read the entire thread yet, so I don't know if any has touched upon the Weidman/Romero matchup. I see alot of people is on Weidman, but i definitely see some value on Romero. Can someone convince me why not to bet on Romero?

3 rounds - just a small cardio advantage for Weidman
If it stays on the feet, I give both the striking and power advantage to Romero. I only see Weidman winning this via dec, or just maybe a stoppage IF Weidman can constantly push a high pace while threating for TD's.

Haven't watched any tape yet, but it's just my initial thoughts. Line is way off if you ask me.

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

I haven't read the entire thread yet, so I don't know if any has touched upon the Weidman/Romero matchup. I see alot of people is on Weidman, but i definitely see some value on Romero. Can someone convince me why not to bet on Romero?

3 rounds - just a small cardio advantage for Weidman
If it stays on the feet, I give both the striking and power advantage to Romero. I only see Weidman winning this via dec, or just maybe a stoppage IF Weidman can constantly push a high pace while threating for TD's.

Haven't watched any tape yet, but it's just my initial thoughts. Line is way off if you ask me.

Im in the same boat. Already stabbed Romero rd 3 +1050, planning on putting a unit or two on his ML as well. (This is pre tape watch) I dont see Yoel getting outwrestled and he is capable of hurting Chris standing up, despite Chris' boxing advantage. Weidman has a hell of a chin but he can be hurt. Can someone who favors Weidman break down why? Really curious to see some of your ideas fellas.

 

[Deleted member 448575]

I'm definitely leaning towards Romero but I can see Weidman winning close rounds based on forward pressure, higher striking output and landing the occasional takedown.

 

[Agent Mulder]

I haven't read the entire thread yet, so I don't know if any has touched upon the Weidman/Romero matchup. I see alot of people is on Weidman, but i definitely see some value on Romero. Can someone convince me why not to bet on Romero?

3 rounds - just a small cardio advantage for Weidman
If it stays on the feet, I give both the striking and power advantage to Romero. I only see Weidman winning this via dec, or just maybe a stoppage IF Weidman can constantly push a high pace while threating for TD's.

Haven't watched any tape yet, but it's just my initial thoughts. Line is way off if you ask me.

I think Weidman is the better kickboxer in terms of technique and throws more volume. Romero fights in bursts which is always dangerous but Weidman is the better striker overall IMO.

 

[iGnP]

Idk why but I can just see Weidman sinking in a choke and winning the fight by sub

 

[lawmills2006]

I haven't read the entire thread yet, so I don't know if any has touched upon the Weidman/Romero matchup. I see alot of people is on Weidman, but i definitely see some value on Romero. Can someone convince me why not to bet on Romero?

3 rounds - just a small cardio advantage for Weidman
If it stays on the feet, I give both the striking and power advantage to Romero. I only see Weidman winning this via dec, or just maybe a stoppage IF Weidman can constantly push a high pace while threating for TD's.

Haven't watched any tape yet, but it's just my initial thoughts. Line is way off if you ask me.

Machida was outstriking Romero until Romero decided to take him down (IIRC), and Weidman is on par with machida in terms of striking. I think the wrestling of both guys are negated, so Weidmans higher volume (plus its in NY), carries him to a decision.

 

[Kowboy Karl]

I haven't read the entire thread yet, so I don't know if any has touched upon the Weidman/Romero matchup. I see alot of people is on Weidman, but i definitely see some value on Romero. Can someone convince me why not to bet on Romero?

3 rounds - just a small cardio advantage for Weidman
If it stays on the feet, I give both the striking and power advantage to Romero. I only see Weidman winning this via dec, or just maybe a stoppage IF Weidman can constantly push a high pace while threating for TD's.

Haven't watched any tape yet, but it's just my initial thoughts. Line is way off if you ask me.

Very intelligent post

My initial lean for weidman that mostly stemmed from the cardio problems of weidman.... he's getting better and dancing for 3 minutes around before he goes bananas and starts "fighting" lol

Buti do think we are ignoring a big angle here of the flat out glaring gap in who's a monster

Weidman clearly had difficulty with luke who is also a monster

Just a bigger stronger guy

I do think weidman has a huge gap in grappling and Bjj. I just don't know if he's strong enough to get him down and keep him there over and over.

I've been trying to be more value oriented with my bets and more singles less parlays and I think straight up at plus 150 Romero is probably the right side