UFC 205 - Conor vs Alvarez - NY

[Joseph Budden]

Kelvin's footwork is fine, but look at how awkward Woodley made him look. Kelvin looked half lost and Woodley doesn't have near the variety of strikes that Cerrone has. And Cerrone has quite obviously evolved, to say he's "the same guy" is inaccurate. The way he's incorporated is offensive wrestling is a game changer. With his sub skills, you don't want him getting top position on you. In addition, he's developed the straight knee to help deal with guys who try to pressure him. If you look at what's given him problems in the past it actually WAS guys who pressured him moving mostly straight forward. Mainly because it neutralized a lot of his body kicks and round kicks he likes to throw. His muy thai game became much more limited until he figured out how to deal with the straight forward pressure.

Kelvin's left roundhouse is okay but I doubt it's something Cerrone will worry about. Has Kelvin actually ever hurt anyone with it? As for his offensive wrestling, I'm not sure that's a game he wants to play. Think about how many times he was swept by Magny and ended up in bad spots vs him. Magny is good on the mat, Cerrone is better. That's a really dangerous game if Kelvin decides to intentionally go there.

Honestly haven't rewatched the Woodley fight and i'm hesitant to do so when Kelvin was in the hospital from the weight cut days before. The only fight that gives me caution is Magny. It was genuinely surprising how bad he manhandled Kelvin in those first couple of rounds, but Donald shoots reactive takedowns so a little less troubling as far as getting Kelvin on his back

I mean, he looks better, but whats really evolved? He just seems to have more power, maybe more pop and fluidity on his combos but hes still Cerrone. Thats not taking anything away from him, but hes literally always fought the way he has in his last two and always had those skills. Its kind of like Nate Diaz. He is better than years ago at fighting like Nate Diaz, but as far as how to beat him, its still the same and nothing (yet) leads me to believe thats any different for Cerrone.

Hes always had the straight knee. I'm worried about it, but I expect Kelvin to be able to deal with it. When you have proper pressure footwork, it involves being aware of spacing and closing the gap methodically. That weapon worked like a beauty against Story cause dude just comes straight forward like a bull

I'd hope Cerrone is worried about it!!! lol its what got him finished vs RDA and Pettis, he drinks his liver away, and Kelvin kicks like an animal. Wouldn't be shocked if, now with just over a year at Kings, Kelvin kicks harder than ever.

Yeah there are worries, the ground being one of them, but i'd cap this as Cerrone -120. I'll be very impressed if he wins. Kelvin is one of the worst stylistic fights for him at 170 imo, prob in the top 3. All the value to me is on kelvin dec +315

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

Cerrone ML just went from -150 to -155... I wonder if we will see much more money come in on Kelvin this week or if I should just bite now.

 

[mkess101]

Honestly haven't rewatched the Woodley fight and i'm hesitant to do so when Kelvin was in the hospital from the weight cut days before. The only fight that gives me caution is Magny. It was genuinely surprising how bad he manhandled Kelvin in those first couple of rounds, but Donald shoots reactive takedowns so a little less troubling as far as getting Kelvin on his back

I mean, he looks better, but whats really evolved? He just seems to have more power, maybe more pop and fluidity on his combos but hes still Cerrone. Thats not taking anything away from him, but hes literally always fought the way he has in his last two and always had those skills. Its kind of like Nate Diaz. He is better than years ago at fighting like Nate Diaz, but as far as how to beat him, its still the same and nothing (yet) leads me to believe thats any different for Cerrone.

Hes always had the straight knee. I'm worried about it, but I expect Kelvin to be able to deal with it. When you have proper pressure footwork, it involves being aware of spacing and closing the gap methodically. That weapon worked like a beauty against Story cause dude just comes straight forward like a bull

I'd hope Cerrone is worried about it!!! lol its what got him finished vs RDA and Pettis, he drinks his liver away, and Kelvin kicks like an animal. Wouldn't be shocked if, now with just over a year at Kings, Kelvin kicks harder than ever.

Yeah there are worries, the ground being one of them, but i'd cap this as Cerrone -120. I'll be very impressed if he wins. Kelvin is one of the worst stylistic fights for him at 170 imo, prob in the top 3. All the value to me is on kelvin dec +315

Wasn't it a body punch by RDA, not a kick? I've never seen Kelvin kick like Pettis does. Either with the power or the speed. That's not to say it's a guarantee he doesn't land one, I just haven't seen anything from Kelvin that suggests he's going to catch Cerrone with one.

Cerrone's TD's are reactionary sure, but his timing has been brilliant. And if you talk about grappling as a whole, think of it this way:

If Kelvin shoots and scores a TD, he might STILL be at a disadvantage in Cerrone's guard. Magny swept him multiple times, Cerrone is more than capable. Not to mention how dangerous he is with subs off his back.

If Cerrone does hit a reactionary TD, Kelvin is in a world of trouble. Cerrone with top position is a nightmare scenario for Kelvin.

And let's not act like Kelvin can't be lured into a firefight. See the gif of Story dropping him like a rock that I posted a bit ago. And while Cerrone's liver might still be an issue with body shots, his newfound seemingly crazy power along with his excellent chin gives him the edge if there's a lot of big exchanges imo. Plus how insanely quick he is at pouncing and finishing via sub if he drops someone.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Wasn't it a body punch by RDA, not a kick? I've never seen Kelvin kick like Pettis does. Either with the power or the speed. That's not to say it's a guarantee he doesn't land one, I just haven't seen anything from Kelvin that suggests he's going to catch Cerrone with one.

Cerrone's TD's are reactionary sure, but his timing has been brilliant. And if you talk about grappling as a whole, think of it this way:

If Kelvin shoots and scores a TD, he might STILL be at a disadvantage in Cerrone's guard. Magny swept him multiple times, Cerrone is more than capable. Not to mention how dangerous he is with subs off his back.

If Cerrone does hit a reactionary TD, Kelvin is in a world of trouble. Cerrone with top position is a nightmare scenario for Kelvin.

And let's not act like Kelvin can't be lured into a firefight. See the gif of Story dropping him like a rock that I posted a bit ago. And while Cerrone's liver might still be an issue with body shots, his newfound seemingly crazy power along with his excellent chin gives him the edge if there's a lot of big exchanges imo. Plus how insanely quick he is at pouncing and finishing via sub if he drops someone.

Nope, left kick to the body is what initially hurt Cerrone. Dude needs to cut back on the beers. I'd say Kelvin kicks harder than RDA. His left roundhouse was wicked vs Hendricks. Plus he'll pack more weight behind it than RDA

Yeah don't get me wrong, the way the grappling aspects play out is what has me most intrigued and most worried. Mainly cause of that damn Magny fight where, after looking incredibly solid on the mat in every fight previously, Kelvin spent a portion getting rag dolled by Neil fucking Magny. smh.

I'm not worried at all about Kelvin in a fire fight, especially if those fire fights happen with Cerrone's back against the fence after being pressured. That would imply being in the pocket, where I think Kelvin is at an advantage with his boxing in that area and his physicality. Cerrone wants to use his range here imo.

 

[t6p]

I wonder if Cerrone might be able to take those body shots better at 170? We haven't really seen it tested yet.

 

[EzFlyer]

Belal -135
Luque -105

O.5 -185

Im hammering belal -135, short notice for Vicente and big step up In comp

Like o2.5 -185 decently, too

 

[mkess101]

Nope, left kick to the body is what initially hurt Cerrone. Dude needs to cut back on the beers. I'd say Kelvin kicks harder than RDA. His left roundhouse was wicked vs Hendricks. Plus he'll pack more weight behind it than RDA

Yeah don't get me wrong, the way the grappling aspects play out is what has me most intrigued and most worried. Mainly cause of that damn Magny fight where, after looking incredibly solid on the mat in every fight previously, Kelvin spent a portion getting rag dolled by Neil fucking Magny. smh.

I'm not worried at all about Kelvin in a fire fight, especially if those fire fights happen with Cerrone's back against the fence after being pressured. That would imply being in the pocket, where I think Kelvin is at an advantage with his boxing in that area and his physicality. Cerrone wants to use his range here imo.

Cerrone has changed it up to where he's the pressure fighter now though. He was advancing vs both Cote and Story for the most part. Where Kelvin (even in winning easily vs the shell of what was once Johnny Hendricks) will sometimes play the matador (though to be fair he advanced in that fight too at times).

Cerrone destroyed Story in the pocket (and at range, to be fair). Kelvin got straight up dropped by Story in the pocket and had more success circling and countering as opposed to standing his ground. I do agree Cerrone at range is probably more dangerous as it gives him more options. But even in the pocket his short elbows and knees and his seemingly increased power may give him the edge there too.

I am thinking Kelvin's best avenue to success might be to close distance all the way and try to wall n stall Cerrone.

 

[mkess101]

I wonder if Cerrone might be able to take those body shots better at 170? We haven't really seen it tested yet.

Maybe, but I think that's a bit of a reach. I do think it may have to do with his Budweiser intake honestly LOL. His liver...yeah.

But, there's a lot of risk for his opponents going out of their way to target it now too. Because his reactionary takedowns have been so good, throwing a roundhouse to his liver can lead to being put on your back against a top level grappler. Probably a little safer trying to throw body punches but even then you are leaving yourself open to being countered.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Cerrone has changed it up to where he's the pressure fighter now though. He was advancing vs both Cote and Story for the most part. Where Kelvin (even in winning easily vs the shell of what was once Johnny Hendricks) will sometimes play the matador (though to be fair he advanced in that fight too at times).

Cerrone destroyed Story in the pocket (and at range, to be fair). Kelvin got straight up dropped by Story in the pocket and had more success circling and countering as opposed to standing his ground. I do agree Cerrone at range is probably more dangerous as it gives him more options. But even in the pocket his short elbows and knees and his seemingly increased power may give him the edge there too.

I am thinking Kelvin's best avenue to success might be to close distance all the way and try to wall n stall Cerrone.

There is a difference between pressure and advancing. Cerrone basically just held his ground, but he wasn't actively coming forward and dictating the pace at all in either fight. Holding his ground is what allowed for the reactive takedowns when Story and Cote made their moves. Neither Story or Cote know how to pressure fight as good as Kelvin. which also played a part in those tds. Kelvin really never plays matador unless I really missed something lol rewatching Hendricks, Marquardt, even Magny hes always putting those guys back to the fence through proper pressure fighting.

I personally feel the dynamics of Kelvin and Story since their fight have changed. Without going into all the detail, I think Kelvin would whoop on Story similarly to how he did Hendricks in a fight between them today.

I think Kelvin backs Cerrone up against the fence, gets the better of exchanges there (not worried about elbows. Kelvins hand speed gets better and better, he'll crack on Cerrone before he can throw elbows), and hopefully wall and stalls when Cerrone inevitably goes for a thai clinch.

 

[EzFlyer]

I hit Frankie -3.5 -125 and khabib -3.5 -140

I think Frankie wins every round. He has every advantage over stephens besides power (but he still could ko him, just not likely)

Khabib it's funny. I have some mj $ previously, but I kinda feel like... If khabib gets a rd 1 takedown, -3.5 hits. I see the likelihood of 30-27 khabib more than khabib 29-28. I kinda think if he's not getting takedowns in rd1, he just loses the fight outright.

Yea, this could get me middled. Betting mj ml & khabib -3.5. but that's how I see it.

 

[EzFlyer]

Re: gastelum-cerrone... As I've said I'm on gastelum .. but I do agree with whomever brought up the Magny fight. If he gets into those spots against cowboy he's Prolly getting tapped. Pumping my breaks.

 

[EzFlyer]

Boetsch +3.5 -155 ... Man how's that not hit?

 

[mkess101]

There is a difference between pressure and advancing. Cerrone basically just held his ground, but he wasn't actively coming forward and dictating the pace at all in either fight. Holding his ground is what allowed for the reactive takedowns when Story and Cote made their moves. Neither Story or Cote know how to pressure fight as good as Kelvin. which also played a part in those tds. Kelvin really never plays matador unless I really missed something lol rewatching Hendricks, Marquardt, even Magny hes always putting those guys back to the fence through proper pressure fighting.

I personally feel the dynamics of Kelvin and Story since their fight have changed. Without going into all the detail, I think Kelvin would whoop on Story similarly to how he did Hendricks in a fight between them today.

I think Kelvin backs Cerrone up against the fence, gets the better of exchanges there (not worried about elbows. Kelvins hand speed gets better and better, he'll crack on Cerrone before he can throw elbows), and hopefully wall and stalls when Cerrone inevitably goes for a thai clinch.

Wow I just rewatched the fight with Hendricks and some things REALLY stood out:

1. You're right in that Kelvin is advancing more. No question. But I was actually shocked at how much he just comes in on a staight line. His footwork actually is worse than I remember. Which leads to...

2. He got hit a LOT in the fight. WAY more than I remember. His chin is terrific, he was never even slightly fazed, but Hendricks made that fight WAY more competitive than I remember it being. Kelvin won, no question, but it was not a lopsided fight. He got tagged a good amount.

3. Hendricks, even in making it somewhat competitive, looked as bad as I remember. Predictable and sloppy in his technique. Only because of what was maybe lack of respect from Kelvin (seems weird to say but seemed like he felt he could walk straight at Hendricks whenever he wanted) did Hendricks land as much as he did. He rushed straight forward the times he was attacking and not looking to counter and still had some success. If that version of Hendricks fought the current version of Cowboy, I'd be stunned if he made it through 2 rounds.

I highly suggest you rewatch it and give your thoughts. There's times where Kelvin takes good angles and methodically moves into the pocket for sure. But there's MORE times where he comes straight at Hendricks "like a bull" as you said and gets countered (while also landing his own because Hendricks head movement has seemingly evaporated in the last couple years.

I'm actually slightly more confident Cerrone wins now, though maybe slightly less confident he finishes. Kelvin has a beard, no doubt. Guy can take a punch with the best of them.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Wow I just rewatched the fight with Hendricks and some things REALLY stood out:

1. You're right in that Kelvin is advancing more. No question. But I was actually shocked at how much he just comes in on a staight line. His footwork actually is worse than I remember. Which leads to...

2. He got hit a LOT in the fight. WAY more than I remember. His chin is terrific, he was never even slightly fazed, but Hendricks made that fight WAY more competitive than I remember it being. Kelvin won, no question, but it was not a lopsided fight. He got tagged a good amount.

3. Hendricks, even in making it somewhat competitive, looked as bad as I remember. Predictable and sloppy in his technique. Only because of what was maybe lack of respect from Kelvin (seems weird to say but seemed like he felt he could walk straight at Hendricks whenever he wanted) did Hendricks land as much as he did. He rushed straight forward the times he was attacking and not looking to counter and still had some success. If that version of Hendricks fought the current version of Cowboy, I'd be stunned if he made it through 2 rounds.

I highly suggest you rewatch it and give your thoughts. There's times where Kelvin takes good angles and methodically moves into the pocket for sure. But there's MORE times where he comes straight at Hendricks "like a bull" as you said and gets countered (while also landing his own because Hendricks head movement has seemingly evaporated in the last couple years.

I'm actually slightly more confident Cerrone wins now, though maybe slightly less confident he finishes. Kelvin has a beard, no doubt. Guy can take a punch with the best of them.

Its how he presses though. He fights for inches through feints, unwillingness to move backward, using round strikes to keep the opponent in front of him, and cerebral forward movement, until he is controlling the center where as a guy like Story basically just runs at you with body punches. Its why hes able to corner basically everyone hes ever fought. Its a Cordeiro specialty, he does basically all the same things RDA does when he pressures.

Yeah he gets hit. I'm worried about it trust me lol

Agreed that Kelvin showed no fucks for Hendricks offense. He seems to have improved the fluidity of his upper body and head movement, yet at the same time he seemed content to not care to use it and just corner and throw at Johny. Cowboy would kill Johny IF he doesn't get wrestled and hugged, agreed otherwise.

Maybe I should rewatch again (I did when the lines first dropped) but I remember Kelvin only really going no fucks given with his forward motion in 2 and 3 when he realized Hendricks just backs up to the fence with no counter, no? I'd expect him to be more methodical against Cerrone like he started off simply cause Cerrone will make him pay for sloppy aggression much worse.

 

[SBJJ]

I had decent money on Kelvin against Hendricks. Bet him in vegas after Hendricks missed weight. And I was worried watching the fight. By no means did Kelvin dominate. And that was an incredibly bad version oh Johnny

 

[Joseph Budden]

Why is Stephens no scorecards +135? Cause of the Mendes KO? This is way off imo

 

[mkess101]

Its how he presses though. He fights for inches through feints, unwillingness to move backward, using round strikes to keep the opponent in front of him, and cerebral forward movement, until he is controlling the center where as a guy like Story basically just runs at you with body punches. Its why hes able to corner basically everyone hes ever fought. Its a Cordeiro specialty, he does basically all the same things RDA does when he pressures.

Yeah he gets hit. I'm worried about it trust me lol

Agreed that Kelvin showed no fucks for Hendricks offense. He seems to have improved the fluidity of his upper body and head movement, yet at the same time he seemed content to not care to use it and just corner and throw at Johny. Cowboy would kill Johny IF he doesn't get wrestled and hugged, agreed otherwise.

Maybe I should rewatch again (I did when the lines first dropped) but I remember Kelvin only really going no fucks given with his forward motion in 2 and 3 when he realized Hendricks just backs up to the fence with no counter, no? I'd expect him to be more methodical against Cerrone like he started off simply cause Cerrone will make him pay for sloppy aggression much worse.

Definitely more in rds 2 and 3, no question. That said, he had his best offensive moments in those rounds too. Rd 1 more movement and defense but less offensive success.

I don't see Cowboy backing up much, I really don't. One of the reasons he can move forward with far more recklessness than anyone Kelvin's fought so far is that if Kelvin shoots and Cowboy's sprawl doesn't hold up (though it did vs Story), so what? Now you're in Cowboy's guard, and have fun with that. If I was Cowboy I'd fucking spam that straight knee every time Kelvin thought about a level change. Maybe you catch him with one, and if not you play guard and do what Magny did to him. I kinda think Kelvin has zero designs on this thing hitting the mat at all.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Definitely more in rds 2 and 3, no question. That said, he had his best offensive moments in those rounds too. Rd 1 more movement and defense but less offensive success.

I don't see Cowboy backing up much, I really don't. One of the reasons he can move forward with far more recklessness than anyone Kelvin's fought so far is that if Kelvin shoots and Cowboy's sprawl doesn't hold up (though it did vs Story), so what? Now you're in Cowboy's guard, and have fun with that. If I was Cowboy I'd fucking spam that straight knee every time Kelvin thought about a level change. Maybe you catch him with one, and if not you play guard and do what Magny did to him. I kinda think Kelvin has zero designs on this thing hitting the mat at all.

Its critical Cowboy holds the center imo, i'll say that, so if you see him doing so its completely reasonable to have confidence in Cowboy. I will lose a lot of confidence quickly if thats how the fight begins to play out lol.

I'm intrigued what happens if Kelvin gets on top. Hes never been close to subbed iirc, and another similarity to RDA is hes good at inflicting punishment while moving positions with his opponent, but hes always getting into scrambles. Either way I assume the probability is higher its advantageous to Cerrone

I will say, if Cerrone wins here, I can't think of anyone at 170 i'd bet against him with besides WB and Maia

 

[Joseph Budden]

I had decent money on Kelvin against Hendricks. Bet him in vegas after Hendricks missed weight. And I was worried watching the fight. By no means did Kelvin dominate. And that was an incredibly bad version oh Johnny

Not too concerned with that definite x-factor, but only cause i'm in the minority who think Hendricks didn't look bad. Thought it looked like Kelvin had just evolved to a point the generic wrestle boxer approach was no longer a match for him like it was early in his career vs Story

 

[mkess101]

Its critical Cowboy holds the center imo, i'll say that, so if you see him doing so its completely reasonable to have confidence in Cowboy. I will lose a lot of confidence quickly if thats how the fight begins to play out lol.

I'm intrigued what happens if Kelvin gets on top. Hes never been close to subbed iirc, and another similarity to RDA is hes good at inflicting punishment while moving positions with his opponent, but hes always getting into scrambles. Either way I assume the probability is higher its advantageous to Cerrone

I will say, if Cerrone wins here, I can't think of anyone at 170 i'd bet against him with besides WB and Maia

This could be a great LB fight potentially. And yeah, scrambling with Cowboy is a horrible idea. I don't think Kelvin's been super close to being subbed, but the closest guy we've seen in terms of grappling ability to Cowboy that he's fought it Magny. And we saw how that went. Cowboy is better than Magny and also has cardio that's better. If I was in Kelvin's corner I'd tell him "You don't shoot until 20 seconds or so left in a round to try to steal it, period".