UFC 205 - Conor vs Alvarez - NY

[SalvadorAllende]

I might add a little on MJ is he continues to become a bigger dog. Something about his last fight against against DP looked different to me. He seemed the hungriest I've seen him and his speed was impressive. I feel Khabib might be overlooking him and is still bothered by having his title shot taken away and just too focused on Eddie/Conor. It's a big if, but if Johnson can use his speed and movement to avoid being taken down and land strikes with his superior speed he can probably edge a few rounds. Playing Johnson for DEC if the odds are good sounds reasonable to me also.

Im a huge Khabib fan but I think Johnson gets the job done.

Michael Johnson IMO is a top guy at LW when he is on.. but he is so fucking inconsistent that you can never count on him.

Khabib swings wild punches while looking for takedowns. His striking is not that bad as people makes it to be but his flaws fall perfectly into MJ game.
If Michael manages to use his footwork to avoid being grapplefucked all the time he can create space, time Khabib and hurt him bad.

MJ is one of the best dogs in the card IMO.

 

[iGnP]

is this line a little cheap on Natal? Id think the line would be a bit higher

 

[Monster Meat]

not true. i think one or two people were adamantly making a case for cote and it caused a groupthink effect within the thread. i remember a lot of people just being like 'wtf no, cote isnt gonna win this fight' lol

I didn't mean within this forum I was referring to the articles I was reading and the opinions in other forums

 

[Joseph Budden]

not true. i think one or two people were adamantly making a case for cote and it caused a groupthink effect within the thread. i remember a lot of people just being like 'wtf no, cote isnt gonna win this fight' lol

Yep, and the most vocal of those people @kenCs is no longer with us. Which means i'm guessing he went broke lol

 

[Joseph Budden]

I didn't mean within this forum I was referring to the articles I was reading and the opinions in other forums

Us >>>> those guys

 

[EzFlyer]

is this line a little cheap on Natal? Id think the line would be a bit higher

absolutely not imo. not if boetsch looks like he did last fight, i actually favor boetsch here. have 2.5u on him so far, love the price.

 

[piglord]

Kelvin is a giant step up from Story and Cote, though

disagree, i think gastelum is roughly on the same level as story. although his standup did look more crisp against hendricks (or did hendricks just look terrible?). i don't think gastelum is gonna have an easy time getting on the inside, cowboy seems to have addressed those problems. think cowboy chews up kelvin at kicking range.

 

[Card]

 

[SBJJ]

disagree, i think gastelum is roughly on the same level as story. although his standup did look more crisp against hendricks (or did hendricks just look terrible?). i don't think gastelum is gonna have an easy time getting on the inside, cowboy seems to have addressed those problems. think cowboy chews up kelvin at kicking range.

Completely agree! I think undoubtedly Story is close to if not on Kelvins level. In fact, Story could be the tougher matchup for Cerrone.

 

[iGnP]

absolutely not imo. not if boetsch looks like he did last fight, i actually favor boetsch here. have 2.5u on him so far, love the price.

interesting but i dont really see why so much confidence. im not sure if its wrong to speculate this, but Samman passed away from OD-ing on cocaine and heroine a few months after their fight. Who knows what that dude's mental and physical capabilities were in his fight with Tim. If you just ignore that fight for a second, Boetsch has lost 6 of his last 8, 5 of which coming my stoppage

edit not to mention he's going to be 36 in a few months. he's not getting any younger

 

[iGnP]

disagree, i think gastelum is roughly on the same level as story. although his standup did look more crisp against hendricks (or did hendricks just look terrible?). i don't think gastelum is gonna have an easy time getting on the inside, cowboy seems to have addressed those problems. think cowboy chews up kelvin at kicking range.

I guess we will see. Hendricks looked fine in the latter part of the fight so idk about him looking terrible. At this point I don't have much on the fight but it might be one that I just sit back and enjoy instead of forcing a play

 

[Deleted member 448575]

At this point I don't have much on the fight but it might be one that I just sit back and enjoy instead of forcing a play

Same here. I do like the over though.

 

[Sham5916910]

Alvarez goat fotn +450. Ok i bit

 

[mkess101]

Know I've said this before, but pretty easily when Every offensive weapon to ever trouble Cowboy Kelvin possesses

Cerrona (and let's reiterate, at LW and not WW) has had problems with fast starters who gotten him early and guys who work the body really well. Story was far more known for working the body and plenty of people here referenced it (not sure if you did) when assessing that fight. I can't recally it ever being a big part of Kelvin's game. Granted Kelvin is a lefty so Cerrone will have to overcome that but otherwise I'm not seeing it. Cerrone is a better grappler than Magny and Magny really handled Kelvin on the mat.

 

[LEMONZEST]

not true. i think one or two people were adamantly making a case for cote and it caused a groupthink effect within the thread. i remember a lot of people just being like 'wtf no, cote isnt gonna win this fight' lol

Guilty. I was vocally supporting Cote and thought he would win. Cerrone is just getting better and better while initially my opinion was that he was declining and his frequent schedule was going to wear on him.

I do like Cerrone in this matchup but its close.

 

[Tebowned]

1st embedded is out? We'll probably watch it after work.


@iGnP
I dont think the natal line is off but I think he's the rightful favorite.
I believe he can compete standing and in the clinch.
If somehow he lands on his back he's in trouble. To my knowledge Boestch is a turtle on his back.

 

[mkess101]

Kelvin is a giant step up from Story and Cote, though

Giant step? No way. Yeah if I'm ranking them Kelvin is better but the gap isn't that wide imo. I mean, I know Gastelum did get the split, but...

 

[Joseph Budden]

Cerrona (and let's reiterate, at LW and not WW) has had problems with fast starters who gotten him early and guys who work the body really well. Story was far more known for working the body and plenty of people here referenced it (not sure if you did) when assessing that fight. I can't recally it ever being a big part of Kelvin's game. Granted Kelvin is a lefty so Cerrone will have to overcome that but otherwise I'm not seeing it. Cerrone is a better grappler than Magny and Magny really handled Kelvin on the mat.

Cerrone is Cerrone, no matter the weight. Hes looked better, but hes the same man. Story was not as bad of a matchup as people made it seem, which is why I was on Cerrone. He can't pressure box anywhere near as good as Kelvin, he has no left roundhouse kick which is a dangerous weapon of Kelvins, and he pressures in straight lines with only a few tricks to help with that. Namely the body punches. Kelvin uses pressure the right way, through footwork. Not to mention Kelvin is a better offensive wrestler.

 

[mkess101]

Cerrone is Cerrone, no matter the weight. Hes looked better, but hes the same man. Story was not as bad of a matchup as people made it seem, which is why I was on Cerrone. He can't pressure box anywhere near as good as Kelvin, he has no left roundhouse kick which is a dangerous weapon of Kelvins, and he pressures in straight lines with only a few tricks to help with that. Namely the body punches. Kelvin uses pressure the right way, through footwork. Not to mention Kelvin is a better offensive wrestler.

Kelvin's footwork is fine, but look at how awkward Woodley made him look. Kelvin looked half lost and Woodley doesn't have near the variety of strikes that Cerrone has. And Cerrone has quite obviously evolved, to say he's "the same guy" is inaccurate. The way he's incorporated is offensive wrestling is a game changer. With his sub skills, you don't want him getting top position on you. In addition, he's developed the straight knee to help deal with guys who try to pressure him. If you look at what's given him problems in the past it actually WAS guys who pressured him moving mostly straight forward. Mainly because it neutralized a lot of his body kicks and round kicks he likes to throw. His muy thai game became much more limited until he figured out how to deal with the straight forward pressure.

Kelvin's left roundhouse is okay but I doubt it's something Cerrone will worry about. Has Kelvin actually ever hurt anyone with it? As for his offensive wrestling, I'm not sure that's a game he wants to play. Think about how many times he was swept by Magny and ended up in bad spots vs him. Magny is good on the mat, Cerrone is better. That's a really dangerous game if Kelvin decides to intentionally go there.

 

[t6p]

Cerrona (and let's reiterate, at LW and not WW) has had problems with fast starters who gotten him early and guys who work the body really well. Story was far more known for working the body and plenty of people here referenced it (not sure if you did) when assessing that fight. I can't recally it ever being a big part of Kelvin's game. Granted Kelvin is a lefty so Cerrone will have to overcome that but otherwise I'm not seeing it. Cerrone is a better grappler than Magny and Magny really handled Kelvin on the mat.

Just to add to this. Gastelum put himself in some bad positions against Magny, especially in the first round. If he does that against Cowboy, good chance he gets finished.