UFC 205 - Conor vs Alvarez - NY

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Given McGregor-RDA was a pick 'em in the odds before it got canned, do we today rate Alvarez as worse than we thought RDA was then? Because Eddie is the clear dog.

As surely the McGregor-Diaz fights have diminished some of the McGregor hype. Very good fighter, undoubtedly, but with proven weaknesses, and definitely not the unbeatable Mystic Mac always two steps ahead of his competition. Yet Eddie is fancied less than RDA was, despite having beaten him?
 
mkess101 said:
Eddie is way more hittable than Chad imo, at least early. Plus I think the cut to 145 might hurt Conor's cardio. Eddie is absolutely a live dog though.
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Conor just can't get up once he's on his back, and he has no TDD. Such a huge hole to have.
 
Brick Top said:
Conor just can't get up once he's on his back, and he has no TDD. Such a huge hole to have.
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And against a guy who, at the promo press conference, said something like "no, I'm not just going to try and wrestle" while looking like he was absolutely lying through his teeth.
 
bruthead said:
Given McGregor-RDA was a pick 'em in the odds before it got canned, do we today rate Alvarez as worse than we thought RDA was then? Because Eddie is the clear dog.

As surely the McGregor-Diaz fights have diminished some of the McGregor hype. Very good fighter, undoubtedly, but with proven weaknesses, and definitely not the unbeatable Mystic Mac always two steps ahead of his competition. Yet Eddie is fancied less than RDA was, despite having beaten him?
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The line would be different with the new information, but I don't like either against McGregor. I am positive either would get massacred on the feet, yet I doubt their ability to win on the ground. They will be too scared of the counterboxing to push McGregor to the fence, which is where both like to execute their takedowns. If they are intent on moving forward, they're in trouble.
 
weedreference said:
The line would be different with the new information, but I don't like either against McGregor. I am positive either would get massacred on the feet, yet I doubt their ability to win on the ground. They will be too scared of the counterboxing to push McGregor to the fence, which is where both like to execute their takedowns. If they are intent on moving forward, they're in trouble.
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Will be interesting to see if Eddie can just shoot on Conor and take him down and hold him there, staying busy enough to not get stood up and winning rounds. Not sure Eddie will implement that strategy or if he has the shot that's good enough to do it, but Mendes took Conor down with ease and also held him there easily until he went for the guillotine. Then he gassed (to Conor's credit, probably at least partly from the body kicks).

A top notch wrestler who's content to win rounds and land some gnp but not give opportunities for Conor to stand up likely will give Conor big problems until Conor shores up his tdd.

On this I totally agree with Robbie, it's a hole in Conor's game. I just don't know if Eddie is the guy to be able to do it, or honestly if he'll even try.
 
Could there be a chance Joanna finishes this fight? It's materializing a bit in my head that Karolina is still an infant on the mat. She has no outs here if she's getting outstruck by Joanna so she can't really go for TDs or stall time by pressing against the fence or anything like that. Joanna might be the better ground fighter in this instance and she can finish on top or maybe even submit like she did in their "ammy" fight.

Initially figured Joanna by UD but man I'm not so sure now. 5 rounds is a long time.
 
Rebel_LioN said:
Could there be a chance Joanna finishes this fight? It's materializing a bit in my head that Karolina is still an infant on the mat. She has no outs here if she's getting outstruck by Joanna so she can't really go for TDs or stall time by pressing against the fence or anything like that. Joanna might be the better ground fighter in this instance and she can finish on top or maybe even submit like she did in their "ammy" fight.

Initially figured Joanna by UD but man I'm not so sure now. 5 rounds is a long time.
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Karolina looked fine on the ground vs Rose from what I remember.
 
Rebel_LioN said:
Well I mean, Rose wasn't beating her in the stand up either. Do you see where I'm getting at?
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Yeah I do but I still think Joanna decision is the way to go. Gadelha was pretty much completely gassed in the last 2 rounds and Joanna couldn't finish her. She finished Esparza and Penne but Karolina has much better stand up than them. I don't really see Karolina trying to take it to the ground and even if she does Joanna is just going sprawl and brawl IMO.
 
vkram said:
Yeah I do but I still think Joanna decision is the way to go. Gadelha was pretty much completely gassed in the last 2 rounds and Joanna couldn't finish her. She finished Esparza and Penne but Karolina has much better stand up than them. I don't really see Karolina trying to take it to the ground and even if she does Joanna is just going sprawl and brawl IMO.
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Okay hopefully Karolina doesn't get finished or worse case cut up. This is the first time Karolina has faced someone that's a legit striker that's as good as her if not, likely better than her.
 
Rebel_LioN said:
Okay hopefully Karolina doesn't get finished or worse case cut up. This is the first time Karolina has faced someone that's a legit striker that's as good as her if not, likely better than her.
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I wouldn't be shocked if we see a finish (almost certainly from JJ if it happens). Both girls are very aggressive and seem to turn it up as the fight goes on. We haven't seen KK in the 4th and 5th rounds yet but her performance against HJC in the 3rd round was very Joanna-esque IMO.

That said, I think the most likely scenario is a decision. I'm expecting this fight to be closer than a lot of other people seem to. KK will be the best striker that JJ has been faced, she has some nice elbows and knees from the clinch, and she won't be intimidated. I favor JJ to win, but I think the value is on KK decision at +550.
 
Rebel_LioN said:
Okay hopefully Karolina doesn't get finished or worse case cut up. This is the first time Karolina has faced someone that's a legit striker that's as good as her if not, likely better than her.
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To be honest you could also say that Karolina is the best striker Joanna faced in MMA too.
 
Both girls do tend to get better as the fight goes longer. Hmmm this is definitely a primetime fight & someone's 0 has to go.

Maybe I'll sprinkle some on KK split. She's got a bunch so maybe that's plausable.
 
Rose was beating kk before she got into the clinch with her. Those knees and elbows slowed Rose down. You would think muay Thai practitioner o jj's caliber won't have trouble with kk. Is there any evidence that jj can hold her own with forward pressing fighters and in the clinch?
 
Considering I'm gonna be experimenting with the strategy of only hitting super value lines, KK decision +550 and split +1345, JJ in 3, 4, and 5 +1135, 1525, and 2125 are those lines to me. Otherwise, if I was playing like I'm used to, I'd have to give consideration to parlaying JJ (money line is a bit much though, but I guess that's part of why I want to experiment with this strategy) or playing her minus points. Good chance she avoids a dog fight and dismantles KK, but with the prices on those particular lines, I'm comfortable playing the value spots in this one
 
Dogs I like for this card are:

Alvarez
Gastelum
Johnson
Evans
Miller
Good

Haven't played any yet but I will be on some of them for sure.
 
Lyman Good has tested failed a drug test and is pulled from UFC 205.
 
OneWarrior1 said:
Kk was gifted a title shot. She arguably lost to both rose and markos
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I thought KK won both but will agree both were close. But styles do make fights. KK can probably let her hands go more vs JJ since no worries about being taken down.

JJ should be favored but I think this will be a competitive fun standup fight.
 
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